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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
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21 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The wheels are coming off! If you look at the detailed stats for covid patients admitted to hospital, you'll see that there were 926 new patients in England alone on 19 December. (And well over 1,000 for the UK as a whole.)

However, the summary stats only go to 17 December.
In other words the summary data (which the newspapers focus on) is still 24-48h from showing the sudden leap in hospitalisations visible in the detailed stats.

Why the delay? Because the summary requires data for all 4 nations, but there's no data for Scotland after 17 December.
Meanwhile...

"Ministers will not introduce any new Covid restrictions before Christmas in England, Boris Johnson has confirmed, saying there is not enough evidence to justify tougher measures."

Look at the detail, man! The detail!
theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
To dig into the data for yourself, switch to the "by nation" view on the Healthcare page.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/health…

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More from @uk_domain_names

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
23 Dec
The Express goes wild over the UK's amazing 2022 fishing deal with the EU, worth around £313 million for 140,000 tonnes of fish.

Of course, in reality our deal this year was worth £333 million for 160,000 tonnes, so we've actually thrown away £20 million.
express.co.uk/news/politics/… ImageImage
And here's George Eustice boasting about the remarkable achievement of managing to negotiate less fishing quota than the previous year (oddly, he doesn't choose to frame it that way). Image
Victoria Prentis also seems pretty chuffed at having negotiated away £20 million of fish. Image
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
21 Dec
Here's how Omicron can be doubling every 2 days or less, even though the number of cases isn't: we don't have one pandemic, we have two - Delta & Omicron.

So for the last month we've had a background high level of Delta (circulating at same speed as before) + rocketing Omicron. Image
NOTES
- Those lines on the graph are to illustrate the point. They're not supposed to be exact
- We only sequence a fraction of cases so we won't find Omicron in the others. If you look only at confirmed Omicron cases, they are indeed doubling every 2 days
- Omicron is becoming dominant and the overwhelming strain, not because Delta went away magically overnight, but because the stats for Delta will be irrelevant compared to the scale of Omicron. (Like a teaspoon of water in a bathtub.)
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
17 Dec
Japan: 193 new covid cases yesterday.

UK: 93,045 new covid cases yesterday.

Japan has nearly twice the UK's population, and a higher population density.

Massive covid outbreaks aren't a given - they're a policy choice.
Japan
- Everyone wears masks everywhere. No fuss, no drama, they just do. And life goes on as normal.
- Very strict border control: citizens from 159 countries denied entry, pre-flight and arrival testing, hotel and at-home quarantines, mobile location tracking and reporting.
Japan began vaccinating in earnest much later than the UK. When they got started, they really cracked on with it. And now they're substantially ahead, and with far fewer people in need of urgent boosting.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
17 Dec
The UK continues to fall down the ranks of fully vaccinated countries, even within Europe.

Why? Because it's a marathon not a sprint, and we've practically stopped running. Almost nobody is coming forward for 1st and 2nd jabs any more. Other countries are persuading more people.
That's why it's galling to see the Tories continue to boast about our unprecedented vaccine performance on a daily basis.

It's true that we were the first country to begin vaccinations. Genuinely something to be proud of.

But overall, we haven't executed as well as many others.
We're doing well on the boosters.

But there too, we risk topping out below other countries, even if at the moment we're a bit ahead.

Why? Because we have fewer 2-dose people than they do as a % of the population, so we will literally run out of booster candidates.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
16 Dec
🎄12 Days of Brexit Christmas🎶

On the 1st day of Christmas, Brexit sent to me
Mobile roaming charges.

On the 2nd day of Christmas, Brexit sent to me
Haulage industry chaos,
And mobile roaming charges.
On the 3rd day of Christmas, Brexit sent to me
Horrid sewage discharges,
Haulage industry chaos,
And mobile roaming charges.

On the 4th day of Christmas, Brexit sent to me
Parcels delayed at customs,
Horrid sewage discharges,
Haulage industry chaos,
And mobile roaming charges.
On the 5th day of Christmas, Brexit sent to me
Expensive foreign studies,
Parcels delayed at customs,
Horrid sewage discharges,
Haulage industry chaos,
And mobile roaming charges.
Read 11 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
16 Dec
Of the UK's 67 post-Brexit trade deals (i.e. Liz Truss' trusty photocopier):

38 are fully ratified.

25 are provisionally in place ahead of full ratification

4 are bridging mechanisms because a deal's not been fully sorted out yet

3 remain in discussion
gov.uk/guidance/uk-tr…
But the EU also has trade agreements with:
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Iraq
Kazakhstan
Madagascar

None of the above countries feature on the UK's list, either in the "trade deals" or the "not yet negotiated" sections.
Also, the EU has trade agreements in the process of ratification (i.e. negotiations are finished, but the deals aren't yet in force) with 24 more countries.

None of those feature on the UK list either.

So we're very far from copying what we had before.
ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/c…
Read 4 tweets

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