THREAD on cases, hospital admissions and why so many scientists & NHS leaders are worried.
Case study of London - and what is behind the alarm!
1/10
The key bit is that it takes about 10-14 days from infection to needing hospital. And if you have symptoms, you'll probably test positive 4-7 days into infection.
So there's roughly a week from testing positive to becoming a hospital admission. 2/10
So - cases in London have risen *very steeply* - but *mainly* in the last week. And only in the most recent week has Omicron been dominant.
But cases to 19 Dec (incomplete!) are already more than double previous week. 3/10
If we look at Covid hospital admissions to London up to 19 Dec we see a more modest rise - but that's largely because they do *not* reflect last week's high numbers - it's too soon! 4/10
If we line up admissions under cases a week earlier we can see they've been very consistently about 2% of confirmed cases. From now on, most admissions will be Omicron.
*If* it's not any milder, then that 2% ratio should keep holding. 5/10
Now - in fact most cases in week to 19 Dec have been younger adults. So let's reduce hospitalisations a bit to 1.5% (note, might still be too high). But even that still leads to a large jump *next week*. 6/10
And there'll be much more intergenerational mixing over Christmas. What happens to cases then? Esp with Omicron now dominant?
And admissions the first week of January? Will they double again? more? 7/10
If weekly admissions double just *twice* more from w/e 19 Dec (1.5K), we are back at last January peak in London (6K). We're likely to get a chunk to 1st double next week.
What is scaring people is that with Christmas mixing there is no real reason to think they won't go⬆️ 8/10
Omicron would have to be a *lot* milder to change this. Older adults more likely to need hospital have been boosted for a while - their boosters won't change hospitalisations over next few weeks.
Cases in London already going up in older adults. 9/10
So we've seen cases sky rocket in London this week. We know that they are likely to spread to older adults more over Christmas. Admissions will follow.
Hospitals already struggling with staff who have covid & rest are exhausted.
NHS is sounding the alarm for good reason. 10/10
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Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.
I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.
TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.
This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.
Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....
TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point
let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.
The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.
Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.
TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots
This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6