Thread by @ivan_bezdomny

Many are asking me, when will the CryptoPunks sell-off end? Can the devs do something? [obv not]

I can't tell you where selling stops and support starts... and it's actually pretty hard to model this stuff.

Here's been what I've been working on...

First of all, it's hard to model values in a sliding market. Very different from a rising market, for a bunch of reasons...

Not worth getting into the details, let's just accept there's some asymmetry between bids and asks.

Here's a typical actively traded "floor Punk" in this market.

Notice it sold for 60 ETH days ago -- low watermark for market at the time. Probably worth a little less now? Hard to know...

deepnftvalue.com/punks/9303/

Here's another "floor Punk" that's been trading at even lower prices. Market maker (and sharp price maker) @punksOTC bought for 56, and listed today for only 57 ETH...

deepnftvalue.com/punks/7069/

What's not obvious:
1) how many other Punks are worth ~55-60 ETH in this market
2) are some worth even less, like 45 ETH?
3) why are my valuations still showing the floor values at ~70 when it's obviously lower... [working on it! Details below]

It's almost an axiom, that to know what is happening in a falling market, you look at what listing aren't getting hit. Currently ~20 Punks are listed for 65 ETH or less. Many, I'm sure would also take those prices if offered.

deepnftvalue.com/compare?attrib…

Most of the listings are female Punks, without premier attributes like 3D, Orange Side, Tiara, etc. Although there are fewer male Punks as well.

It's a wrinkle of the market, that the bottom tier/true floor is often a bit over-valued as it's seen as more liquid.

Thus male and female Punks always have the same lower bound. Even though the average male Punk is worth more, or has been for the past few months anyway.

Getting back to the how here... when a piece lists for X -- and especially when it lists and not selling -- it also forms an implicit upper bound on *very similar* pieces.

The question is, how do you define very similar...

That is what I've been up to. Just another attempt to encode common sense that every trader knows in this market.

For example this is the cheapest Orange Side in market, listed for 110 ETH. Which upper bounds does this also imply?

deepnftvalue.com/punks/2253/

That's the power of exp growth. There are 1465 Punks listed. But only a couple hundred of these listings are "actionable" -- i.e. within 30% of a possible sale.

Spreading the lower bound to near neighbors... greatly increases your coverage

deepnftvalue.com/compare?attrib…

I don't think the 'neighbors approach' is as true for bids as it is for asks... but it may help us there a bit also. Just have to be more conservative in lowering the weight on those bids. An "ask" in the market is a true-er signal, since anyone can hit that button and take it.

Anyway, expect a version of the prices out very soon, with lower and more robust lower bounds.

Right now it's simply not true that the median female Punk is worth 86 ETH. I'm not sure it's 70 ETH tbh.

deepnftvalue.com/punks/attribut…

At the same time there's still bid support for Hoodies, 3D Glasses, Top Hat, and the really rare items aren't any more available than before tbh.

If anything, the true Floor : Hoodie ratio is moving toward Hoodies. At least in my opinion.

It's been fun observing this market.