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Nikolai Yakovenko Profile picture
Nikolai Yakovenko
@ivan_bezdomny
DeepNewz -- realtime news powered by AI. Check out our website and GPT Store app. iOS app coming soon! @deepnewsbot AI News @deepnftvaluebot NFT pricing
Dec 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I'm not saying that ChatGPT has a POV...

But... what if we finetuned GPT with differently 🌶️ RL rewards? As I talked about with @razibkhan -- ChatGPT tells you what it thinks you want to hear. Based on example and more importantly response ranking from human raters -- hired by OpenAI and asked to choose the "best responses." It internalized those ranking...

razib.substack.com/p/nikolai-yako…
Dec 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
One of many nuggets that stood out -- but I think @benthompson understates his point. Exponential growth is very rare, and *vast majority* of growth in a successful ventures looks linear. Not just in a media business. Especially without advertising. "It's more than linear... but if you zoom out it really looks linear" -- @benthompson

True way more often (again, in successful ventures) than people want to admit. Yeah you hit some *short* inflection of growth that 7% a month but not for long. It almost never happens.
Nov 17, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
It's becoming impossible to discuss the twitter re-org/engineering rationally any more on twitter dot com. Yes, they could use some more urgent engineering -- call it what you will. But is it really that obvious which features will transform the product or the business? It's not that obvious at all IMO what can make Twitter a better destination of advertisers, or as a subscription service. People may even disagree what Twitter should be. It's not a car or airplane -- very different product.
Nov 16, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
I'm not suggesting one should be worried quite yet -- but @benthompson is right -- while Twitter usage has gone up, advertising has not improved at all, likely gotten worse as some big brands have left and Ads-selling department is de-motivated and bleeding staff. Whether or not Elon is playing 4D chess, may have to figure something out soon on the revenue side
* run previous Ads system at lower cost (harder than it seems)
* invent a new Ads system -- then maybe pre-sell
* subscription
* major big tech partnership
Nov 16, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Many asking us about Bored Ape market and valuations. Apologies site not live yet, lingering issues with live data. Almost ready!

What we see:
* prices steady at 57-64 with high volume (38 sales in 24 hour)
* active on 4x exchanges + BendDAO
* compression of Ape premiums You can see our test site here. "Best Deals" not working but showing recent sales.
* data from @reservoir0x
* Blur, X2Y2, OpenSea, LooksRare
* vast majority of sales near floor, mostly non-stolen apes...
* some premiums for "above floor" apes but small

staging.deepnftvalue.com/collection/bor…
Nov 14, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Yep, cost of living driven by housing, housing costs driven by location. Lots of talk (on both sides) about what governments can do to lower housing costs -- through subsidies, more building/YIMBY, and I suppose other methods... But to large extent a fool's errand IMO. What about instead of trying to change housing policy, the high-cost areas focus on quality of life? Could be safety, could be public transportation, could be roads and traffic congestion.
Nov 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A year ago, it was considered strange if you were in crypto and your company wasn't launching a token. These days it's shameful to be associated with a useless token, and borderline shameful to be in crypto.

How times have changed. I don't think crypto is going away, though I suppose can't guarantee it. I do think if it starts to fade away, this will be a *very* gradual multi-year process.

Both for specific technical reasons, but also just simple "Lindy Effect" arguments -- been a thing for a while now.
Nov 14, 2022 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
There was a tweet about how badly companies with Super Bowl Ads have done. Says more about economic cycles than anything, and a bit about bad companies... but grain of truth. Here's how it's relevant to you, in a competitive environment:

I'll analogize to the NBA or MLB draft... There are two kinds of value you look for when drafting NBA or MLB players (NFL draft is something I understand much less about):
* present value
* future value

You want players who can help you now (within 1-2 years) but mostly future upside.
Nov 13, 2022 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Our model has made a substantial adjustment to valuations for the top CryptoPunks -- in particular the Aliens. These prices reflect:
* recent Alien listings
* lack of bid for these listings
* small change in modeling

deepnftvalue.com/collection/cry… Image Overall, the model remains the same -- we model prices based on a upper and lower bounds (for bids and asks) an a number of other losses and constraints -- like similarity, consistency over time, ratios between attributes, etc.
Nov 13, 2022 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
Ya’ll complain about low quality information and misleading headlines. Then given the option of which version of a story to share, you retweet the clickbait. Every. Single. Time. It's something that every writer knows... and isn't necessarily even a bad thing. Do you want more boring writing? I dont.
Nov 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Another beautiful Miami sunrise. Blessed to live in a place like this 🏝🌅 Not seeing any little 🦈 this morning in the shallows. But pelican dove in for something he liked 🎣
Nov 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Her blog is quite good. And like many good intellekshual personal blogs, contains excellent and eclectic book reviews. She reads widely. A book review is great default blog content. Remind me I gotta read more again...
Nov 13, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
My goal in BJJ is to have competitive rolls with my friends in pro baseball. Trainers and coaches, who played college and minor league ball, caught the BJJ bug and roll once in a while... blue or purple belt level, 6'2"+ 200+ lb pitchers. Mostly late 20s. 🥋⚾🤼 Our BJJ coach tells me... I think you can aim higher than that.

Boxing coach chimes -- you don't understand these are pro athletes.

"Are baseball players good athletes?" our BJJ coach exclaims.

Yes, very much so.
Nov 13, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Year ago I couldn't explain to you how a non-pro, non-athlete amateur could grapple for ~10 hours a week and make that physically sustainable. Without going soft, doing "Hollywood jiu jitsu" etc -- or sustaining constant injuries. Yet here we are. Itching for a Sunday open mat... I'm not gonna go. Will lift or go for 15km run instead. But if they call me for class I'd be right there and happy to get after it.

I have other 40+ year old friends who also train as much, if not more...

Sure they were Olympic/pro athletes in their day and I'm a mathlete...
Nov 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Andrew is right by the way -- it's kind of insane that Twitter has ZERO tools to let you delete tweets. Including expiring tweets (a la Snap) or clear older stuff that isn't linked... much less AI suggesting what to delete. We'd all pay for that man. Ideally all tweets would delete after X time. Except those I've linked to in my Medium articles, etc. Really not that hard to do. But you'd have to use a sketch third party tool just to do something simple like delete all tweets from 2+ years ago... and no rewind if you mess up
Nov 12, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Haisam one of my fav BJJ pros to watch on WNO. But man, you just can’t make it at top level BJJ anymore it can’t handle a dangerous leg locker. Meaning you have to learn the leg locks yourself. 🦒🦵🥋

instagram.com/p/Ck3RVVsu8hu/… Image Match lasted a minute. Luke pulled guard, Haisam went for “hand on far hip” toreando pass that Gordon Ryan made famous. When he went to cut around the knee for side control, Luke grabbed the foot and went for ashi garami. Locked it up and quick tap.
Nov 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
If true, would make a heck of a Michael Lewis book. The poker analogy is a game runner who charges high rake, but also has to plays in the game and dump to the players. Keeping break-even players alive...

Very common case, actually.
Nov 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Two camps: A) "everyone has their own truth" B) "falsehood has no right"

Twitter started firmly in camp A) but has had to add "truth verification" outsourced to prestige media.

This was inevitable. Interesting to see if they insource instead. Jack represents camp A) -- which was huge in the early days of social media. People forget but in 2005 it was almost inconceivable that something like Blogger would control what could be blogged about, or add a disclaimer...

Nov 7, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It’s useful to think about this NFT marketplace Battle Royale, in terms of @benthompson “strategy credit”

Not that principles don’t matter but companies end up pushing a point of principle that happens to match where their business arrived historically

stratechery.com/2013/strategy-… Thompson writes about how Apple pushed a privacy narrative years ago... which they believed I'm sure -- because they sell $$$ devices, monetize through hardware, and don't need or have a great Ads business.

They still don't have great Ads biz. Rugging @antoniogm didn't help...
Nov 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
GM Flamingo track 🔥

And a little lift after 🏋️ ImageImageImageImage Far off the 5K PR, but can’t win them all. Also different waking up 190 lb vs 175…
Nov 4, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Working at Google NYC in 2007, I'd go to Renzo's in afternoons. Muay thai mostly, missed out on epic opportunity to learn BJJ from the best. I'd box and do some olympic lifting, next to Danaher, who still had hair then...

This is the magic of large cities, not quality of life. The density and "international" nature of NYC -- as Danaher talks about on Lex -- is what makes it such a dynamic place, having the best in the world -- or close to it -- in every niche.