Thread by @HZiauddeen

Brief update
🧵COVID-19 in the UK: We're SO SO fucked

This last thread👇was written in the golden days when daily case numbers were only in excess of 70,000. Since then a lot has happened and in response, the govt has taken masterful, decisive and definitive inaction.
1/16

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1471265099977535492

Here are our case numbers over the last week:
14/12: 59610
15/12: 78,610
16/12: 88,376
17/12: 93,045
18/12: 90,418
19/12: 82,886
20/12: 91,743
21/12: 90,629

These numbers may plateau soon because we are close to maxing out our testing capacity.
2/16

Things are very grim indeed.
The best case scenario SAGE models are horrifying.
The worst case scenario models are to awful to even contemplate.

The govt has taken the shortest route to find a solution and done away with the issue of contemplation.
3/16

'Models don't always give you what you want. We should have stuck with entrails, you can always get entrails to say whatever you want. No one would notice if you threw in an extra gizzard to make an especially convenient point.'
4/16

Several cabinet ministers and senior Tory MPs have launched a concerted and coordinated attack and disinformation campaign against the modellers who are predicting what is unpalatable to them i.e. something that will require them to do something to look after the public.
5/16

The media have of course been fully in, a particular highlight is @nicktriggle citing @sceptical_zebra writing for Unherd about the problems with models.
6/16

https://twitter.com/ConcernedofBri1/status/1473304317952200706?s=20

It's the tried &tested undermine the credibility of those saying what you don't want to hear. Very worrying to see the govt doing this at a time like this and also finding scientists who will provide more suitable and convenient recommendations.
7/16

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1437024094915072009?s=20

It's pretty much the same strategy as Brexit with a lot of the original cast. The govt are the defiant protectors of liberty and rights standing against the 'experts', scientists and doctors who are trying to control and restrict people's lives.
8/16

This is worrying for several reasons including clearly imposing beliefs as being superior to and more relevant than reality, but perhaps the most worrying is that it sets up a position that is very difficult to back down from without losing face.
9/16

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1473232396636073988?s=20

That is a deliberate part of the strategy and a very good way of keeping your allies in line. They have to stick with you because they can't risk losing face on their own.

And of course all of this is deliberate.
10/16

The govt knows what's happened & is happening, they have seen the models. Not acting is not about failing to understand or believing an erroneous position in good faith.
Like pretty much everything else in the pandemic, this is intentional.
11/16

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1439730298930012161?s=20

Schools are being kept open as long as possible, retired teachers are being invited to return to keep up supplies of cannon fodder.
No action is being taken to control transmission, the messaging remains as messy as ever and nothing is being done.
12/16

I suspect we may not be hit as badly as the models predict purely because a lot of people will take it upon themselves to limit contact and mixing to protect themselves and their families. This is the best case for the govt. Restrictions happen without them having to act.
13/16

The lower than expected cases will be used to justify their decision and stick to their line, even though the actual outcomes will be horrific.

This excerpt from the Telegraph sums up the position aptly horribly.
14/16

https://twitter.com/princessGCJ/status/1473280847595905026?s=20

Essentially the govt has decided to:
1. Not give any clear and consistent messaging about the reality of the situation and what needs to be done by the public.
2. Not take steps to control transmission.
3. Not take any steps that would require them to actually do anything.
15/16

4. Take a firm stand against anything being done through the 'backdoor' of science or public health.

At a point when everyday of inaction is so costly, the only decision our govt has made is to ensure more days of inaction.

We're SO SO fucked.
16/16