Thread by @GrayConnolly

I wrote this in July 2018 on "The Sources Of Russian Conduct" with a particular focus on Russian geopolitics, military history, strategic culture, and the view from the Kremlin. Always try to understand your adversary on his own terms.

strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/07/source…

I would note Putin's comments below on the demise of "Historical Russia" that includes Belarus, Ukraine & the Baltics, are widely shared among Russians (inc diaspora). If Putin was replaced tomorrow by the Tsar, the Tsar would share Putin aims & policies
rferl.org/a/putin-histor…

Given reporting of RUS/UKR situation, WW2 maps should concentrate minds as Eastern Front defences/offensives are a staple of Russian military staff study. There is no easy way to resupply UKR in Winter even (bravely) assuming European aid in NATO [cheap RUS gas conflicts Europe]

The Russian military caste and esp the Russian officer corps are different from those in Western militaries. The Russian military predicament is also unique, so also Russian history & culture, all shaped especially by Russia's geographic frontiers straddling Eurasia.

Russian military culture actively screens for the most able Russian officers to join the General Staff - you join the Staff (get the prized insignia) & lose service branch loyalties. You become a member of an elite caste, cf Western militaries where Staff service is 'endured'.

Russian staff officers have often worked their way through higher HQs and finally to the General Staff. Along the way, all they have done is plan, plot, and run military operations. The actual field commanders are mere foremen for a project & very replaceable if/when they fail.

The Russian military system works well in a defined hierachical culture. Hard to transpose to esp Anglo cultures where senior officers are often managerial & staff work is often avoided/derided vs ‘dying heroically clutching the colours in a last stand’ is the martial ideal.

This translation of the March 2018 speech of General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, to the Russian Academy of Military Sciences is well worth reading to understand contemporary Russian thinking, especially right now
armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Army…

General Gerasimov:

"To paraphrase well-known philosopher Immanuel Kant, one can say that military science must become like a servant who goes in front of her mistress with a torch and lights the way for her, and not one who walks behind her and carries the train of her dress"

Noteworthy that the Russians have maintained the 'lampasse': the red stripes down the trouser legs indicating General Staff Officers. Even from Stalin in WW2, the Soviets' General Staff would have this elitist marking down to today, cf British Generals in well worn battledress.

I mention all this as the Russians are the only contemporary armed forces that have had successive kinetic war successes over the past 30 years: Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine, etal. Russians will use speed, massive firepower, manoeuvre, and sow discord behind lines, to gain victory.

The Russians also have private military companies like Wagner, Slavonic, etal, that are very effective, real world, global instruments of (deniable) Russian policy .... and gets a fraction of the coverage that troll farms/hacking get
fpri.org/article/2019/1…

Will leave it there for now as it is 0111 here. Hopefully the point is made that Russian policy has an historic rationale to it & has been developed with an intention of offensive usage, even in a defensive task. There are no surprises from the Kremlin. So do not be surprised

"When the enemy is driven back, we have failed, and when he is cut off, encircled and dispersed, we have succeeded" ~ Field Marshal Alexander Suvorov, Generalissimo of the Russian Empire (1730-1800)