Thread by @sejoalzir

HOW ROBREDO SHOULD USE LAYLO'S DATA

Winning election campaigns are evidence-based, scientific, data-driven and cognitive. Cambridge Analytica has demonstrated to us many times that maskipaps, nakasanayans, and tsambas and their versions in other countries are things of the past.

Election campaigns in the Philippines today should be changed by what happened in 2016--the use of social media, manipulative political communication, and data analytics. The traditional strategies before that should be deemed archaic as far as our national politics is concerned.

Robredo's camp should use Laylo's demographically arranged survey results to restrategize its campaign. This thread will do just that. I will propose probable narratives based on the numbers and suggest solutions that may weaken or neutralize them. My intent, again, is to help.

Urban and Rural

The graph shows that Robredo is trailing Marcos by a mile among urban and rural voters. The choice in rural areas is understandable since they are the sources of Marcos votes, but the urban areas, where Robredo is expected to lead, deserve a deeper examination.

Marcos' urban votes, I suspect, are mostly in Metro Manila, the barometer of political movements, anger-motivated campaigns, and even political uprisings--from the Aquino-led 1986 EDSA Revolution to the reformist movement of Santiago in 1992 to Duterte's angry campaign in 2016.

To entice Metro Manila voters, Robredo should learn how Santiago and Duterte won in Manila--fear, despair, anger, and hate coupled with courage and hope, a permutation of voting motivators. If she rejects the power of motivating voters, Metro Manila will remain in Marcos' kitty.

I also suspect a sizable number of Marcos' urban votes come from the depressed areas in cities. In Metro Manila, they're migrants from Visayas and Mindanao who have been supporting the Dutertes. They are Sara Duterte's contribution to Marcos. There are Waray Marcos loyalists too.

I guess Robredo should start "slummifying" her campaign by exploring the poor urban communities for votes. It won't only convince the voters from the slums but also erase her being a candidate of the elite, which is far from the truth. Issues and policies may convince them.

Issues like EJK, economic Chinese invasion, and corruption, which can be framed as anti-poor, are some that will move them. EJK as a human rights issue is futile. It should be explained as "punishing the poor while protecting the rich". Yes, I mean a class war in their worldview.

Anti-Chinese sentiments are brewing in such communities. Even EJK is connected to mainland-Chinese drug smugglers. Many of them are factory workers whose labor is exploited by their Chinese employers. Tsinoy and Tsino-orchestrated covid scams have been toying with their poverty.

Another segment of Marcos' urban voters, whose support is tentative, is that of the lower classes I call "Eat Bulaga" votes. They're Sotto supporters, and their presidential choice is still unstable. Robredo can exploit that uncertainty if she's open to the Robredo-Sotto pairing.

Policies such as employment, housing, healthcare, welfare benefits, and even school lunch will attract the attention of the poor urban voters. Believe it or not, toilets, drinking water, garbage management and waterways can alleviate the nagging problems that belittle them daily.

I'm from a rural area, and I know one or two about rural voters. They don't care about national politics. During elections, they cast their votes by memory recall or popularity. Often, they use the sample ballots local politicians give them together with the stapled Aquino bills.

The rural voters are not yet a lost cause. Robredo can still exploit local issues that concern them--illegal mining and logging that cause flooding, mass pyramid scams that should be investigated, hunger and malnutrition, rural poverty and unemployment, and NPA-caused problems.

ABC and DE

Across socioeconomic classes, Marcos is leading. The upper class who want to be wealthier and more influential and the middle class whose main concerns are social mobility and personal comfort haven't learned a lesson from Dutertenomics that favors Tsinos and Tsinoys.

What are the problems of ABC? Lack of opportunities to create wealth. Being victimized by criminals. Difficulty to move upward due to the current state of the national economy. Uncertainties. Some of Robredo's issues and policies should be catered to ABC to increase her numbers.

Robredo shouldn't dismiss the ABC's nostalgia for the past--Marcos, the father, who created regional oligarchs who godfathered provincial businessmen and whose cronies became business tycoons even after his dictatorship. Maybe they think Marcos, the son, can revive the old ways.

She can easily blur their nostalgia by declaring pro-ABC policy proposals. Less government restrictions and interventions. No ABS-CBN-like golden goose killings. Filipino first in government procurements and contracts. Fair opportunities to make money. Subsidies. What have you.

Taxation, too, can excite the middle class. Lessen their income tax rate. Give them tax credits for childcare or eldercare or care for the disabled. Increase the income tax rate of the wealthy, who are 1% of the population. Give them tax breaks too to massage their resentful ego.

I won't touch classes DE since Robredo's politics has been focused on the lower classes, her advocacy and forte in social justice and welfare services. I'll suggest though that more images and narratives of her interactions with the lower classes should be exposed and revealed.

Currently, the image of her campaign is ABC because of the latter's visibility--bored trophy wives, Sunday Mass matrons in Coco Chanel, grandpas with pipes and canes, and golf daddies. She needs more Aling Maries, Mang Bens, Tata Selos and Nana Sitas to truly define her politics.

DE must be prioritized since the large majority of the population belong to those classes. By prioritizing, I mean most of Robredo's political communications, campaign materials, election narratives and images, policy proposals, and social issues should be familiar to DE voters.

Men and Women

The choice of these two demographic groups is laced with misogyny. I can understand the men's adulation for anything Marcosian--dictatorship, strongman politics, paternalism, populist leadership, etc. Powerless men fantasize about the power they can never achieve.

On the other hand, the women's overwhelming support for Marcos can only be explained by the bandwagon effect and the social desirability or conformity bias--perhaps influenced by their husbands, fathers, grandfathers, and other male relatives or by their friends and coworkers.

Their preconceived notions about genders cloud their independent ability to decide or choose. Remember that "haligi at ilaw ng tahanan" mysogynistic trope where women are "napupundi" and men are "nakatayo pa rin" even when infested by termites? That's influential too in politics.

Filipinos have been dealing with two crises--the pandemic and the sagging economy. Strength and survival are in their minds. Do you think women leaders give them confidence? Keep watching that show "Survivor" where women participants are less preferred when there are challenges.

My prescription, bring out Robredo's covid-19 initiatives, "Angat Buhay" projects, and OVP disaster reliefs. Saturate all media platforms. Keep reminding Filipinos that Robredo's grit is her cojones. Keep repeating that the man of the hour, of his word, and of steel is a woman.

I have this thread that explains why Robredo is trailing Marcos, blames misogyny, and prescribes association, a strategy in political propaganda and image-making. It's too detailed and laborious, but hey, no election is a cakewalk unless one is unopposed.

https://twitter.com/sejoalzir/status/1471257473101094914

Perhaps some of you will mock Marcos for his sudden elevation as the poster boy for Filipino masculinity and misogyny and even question his sexuality by regurgitating the old high-society gossip. Remember, Marcos represents his father's old politics and the oligarchs behind him.

I'll end it here since I have many tweets about age groups, Gen Z and Millennials in particular, their preferences, their needs and wants, and how to motivate them to vote for Robredo. The key here is that the majority of the registered voters belong to the two generations above.