Justin McElroy Profile picture
Dec 22, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
RECORD HIGH 1,474 cases of #COVID19 in B.C. today, a 152% increase from last Wednesday, as Omicron continues to do Omicron things.

Active cases up to 7,253, hospitalizations down to 187, and six new deaths.

Today's chart.
Just 19,949 third doses given in B.C. yesterday (down from last Monday), compared to 208,649 in Ontario, 79,648 in Quebec and 38,295 in Alberta.

The different strategies playing out in clear ways this week.
72% of all cases in the last week in B.C. have been in people with at least two doses.

But when adjusted for population, that still means unvaccinated people have been getting infected at more than double the rate.

And the ratio for hospitalizations is still holding steady.
(How that ratio of hospitalizations changes in the next couple weeks is a critical question for people's risk assessment, and I'll do my best to include that daily for the next bit, along with maybe throwing in a new line graph as well to show changes over time)
As always, hospitalizations and deaths are key assessments, but also lagging indicators.

No movement yet, and let's hope it remains that way.

(Wednesdays have had high number of deaths for several weeks in a row, I think is due to a reporting quirk, so that average is flat)
Couple key data questions that will be helpful for our understanding in this wave:

- What is the difference in cases/hospitalizations by 2nd and 3rd shot?

- If people are sent away from testing sites with a rapid test and are positive, is that added to the list if they report?
I'm asking the government about both of these questions, and I'll let you know if they reply.

And of course data from other countries further along the wave will come in first, which will help.

But for now, we work with the data we have.
Two notes:

1) the BCCDC dashboard has updated and says there were 1,528 cases today, not 1,474, so that's the number I'll be using, as the province said in their release there might be an update.

2) whoo boy that coastal health number
B.C. conducted 16,259 tests yesterday according to the BCCDC, only the 12th highest amount in the pandemic despite a record number of cases.

Given what we've heard in Vancouver and Victoria about testing, safe to say we will have lagging effects in case counts as well.

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More from @j_mcelroy

Oct 15, 2022
"Justin, once the election is over, what will you be doing?"

me: here is a pyramid of beer from the seven key municipalities we will be focusing on tonight
7. KELOWNA

It's a rematch of the 2018 election where Colin Basran won big — can he do so again in an environment where crime and growth concerns are greater than four years ago?

there were no kelowna beers in the bcl so we're going with a more geographically appropriate cider
6. LANGLEY TOWNSHIP

Can Rich Coleman make a return to politics, will controversial councillor Eric Woodward and his new party dominate — or will one of the other two plausible contenders sweet up the middle?

A 9% imperial sour is bold but by night's end you might need it
Read 9 tweets
Aug 20, 2022
it's a beautiful saturday in august

the pne has begun

it's a little cooler than the last few days

really the ideal time to enjoy the last good stretch of summer

who is ready for some charts
The rolling average of #COVID19 wastewater measurements fell in ALL FIVE Metro Vancouver treatment plants last week.

It's now about half what it was at the height of this wave.
Total hospitalizations were down about 10% in the last week, the biggest dip in more than two months, as we start to see the effects of this wave subsiding
Read 9 tweets
Aug 6, 2022
Vancouver's centre-right Non-Partisan Association has been one of the city's top two parties in 58 of its last 59 elections.

In 2018 they won the most council seats & came within 1000 votes of being elected mayor.

And then what happened?
First there was a battle for control of the board that seemed to get pretty nasty.

thebreaker.news/business/npa-t…
Among the people elected to the board were a former Rebel Media personality, and people who ran for less successful right-wing parties in the prior election.

vancouversun.com/news/local-new…
Read 18 tweets
Aug 5, 2022
who is ready for some charts
Four of Metro Vancouver's five wastewater treatment sites have seen a marked decline in #COVID19 concentration in the last three weeks, suggesting the third Omicron wave has peaked.

Outside of Langley, numbers are back to where they were in early June.
If we zoom into the last two months, we can more clearly see the slow but meaningful decline in the four sites, along with how much Northwest Langley is being an outlier at this point
Read 8 tweets
Aug 3, 2022
Today in "governments being accountable for the billion dollar organizations they oversee", a quick recap of hoping to speak to someone about the departure of BC Housing's CEO
Shayne Ramsay announced today he would be leaving BC Housing after two decades leading the organization.

It's a big, complex job, and has become bigger and more complex as time as gone on.

For a very basic metric of this, here's a chart. Image
BC Housing said Ramsay wouldn't be speaking on his departure today, or answer questions about his stated reasons for leaving.

When you go to BC Housing's media page, you're directed to phone a number that is no longer in service.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 26, 2022
Last weekend I went to the weirdest ghost town in Canada, a time machine to 1981, hundreds of kilometres from any major city.

Here's what it was like in Kitsault, British Columbia.

justinmcelroy.com/2022/07/26/vis…
RANKING THE SPOOKIEST PARTS OF CANADA'S ONLY FULLY PRESERVED 1981 GHOST TOWN

14. GYM

- great raised stage
- yes that's original gym equipment, this will only get weirder
- literally dozens of chairs stored for the school assemblies that will never happen
13. PLAYGROUNDS

- there are four of them, all overtaken by nature to various extents
- very solid wooden structures, two of which are quite interesting
- you're darn right i went down the slides
Read 19 tweets

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