-4°F in Portland, Oregon would break city all-time record low only months after setting all-time record high.

It's 8-days away -- uncertain -- but I'm shocked that this "could" happen in 2021's climate. ImageImage
All-time record lows usually are untouchable because of the late 1800s like 1888, just like the all-time hot records during the Dust Bowl. But, the Pacific Northwest & California are going to give it a good try.
Earlier GFS had -12°F and EPS ensemble had -16°F for Portland breaking record low by a mile.

The actual extremes possible in today's climate are beyond what we have observed, both cold and hot -- so-called counterfactuals.

Fascinating. ImageImage
Another counterfactual example -35°F in Spokane destroying the -30°F sitting on the record books since 1888.
I'm not saying at all that this will verify, not my point. But, these ensemble realizations in today's climate are invaluable mini-attribution experiments. ImageImage
Another counterfactual example -35°F in Spokane destroying the -30°F sitting on the record books since 1888.
I'm not saying at all that this will verify, not my point. But, these ensemble realizations in today's climate are invaluable mini-attribution experiments. ImageImage

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More from @RyanMaue

24 Dec
Does Santa Claus live at the geographic North Pole or geomagnetic North Pole?

Is the answer 42?

"Any reader of Douglas Adams should understand that the importance of “42” is that no one knows what the question is."
Recently, a highly publicized research paper suggested evidence for global climate disruptions 42,000 years ago (42ka) by geomagnetic pole reversals by looking at ancient trees in New Zealand.
The authors speculate further that megafauna extinctions and even humans living in caves 42ka was a response to weak geomagnetic force --> weakened protection against solar wind --> ozone layer damage --> extreme UV + climate disruption.

Whew!

science.org/doi/full/10.11…
Read 6 tweets
24 Dec
A backup must be used either battery storage or fossil fuels.

The lack of wind (16% power decrease in Germany in 2021) worsened electricity shortfalls and exacerbated ongoing European energy crisis. Wind stopped blowing b/c of weather & climate.
reuters.com/markets/commod…
Right now partly b/c of lack of wind this year in Europe, the continent is paying record high electricity prices & importing natural gas at insanely steep premiums.

Wind replacing baseload is a tricky proposition.

US LNG suppliers are sending armada of ships to save Europe.
Same story in UK. When the wind doesn't blow, zero energy is generated.

Record high wind generation in 2020 vs. steep drop-off in spring 2021.

nbcnews.com/news/world/us-… Image
Read 5 tweets
24 Dec
Tonight, I'm going to talk about Temperature Anomaly maps and how they are constructed, used, misused and abused for weather and climate including science and advocacy. This should be fun.
Using weather models or historical observation data, grids are formed of daily, monthly and annual temperatures over a given time period maybe 20 years or 100 years+.
This Period of Record (POR) dataset is then used to select or construct the baseline climatology e.g. 1991-2020.
This map is month-to-date gridded Japanese reanalysis data -- a type of weather model output from forecasts run consecutively using a modern model but the original data from decades ago. This is meant to faithfully represent the true state of 3D atmosphere & ocean.
Read 20 tweets
23 Dec
Much finger pointing and blame to go around w/Texas freeze in February 2021.

Amazingly, Texas cities have only recent become aware of potential for extreme winter cold and snowstorms.

How was this ignorance possible to begin with?

texastribune.org/2021/12/06/tex…
Failure to prepare:

"Emergency officials say part of the reason those calls haven’t been entirely heeded is that large-scale disasters are becoming increasingly common as climate change worsens, making it more difficult to learn from the last one before the next one hits."
The fastest and easiest way to prepare for extreme weather in the near-future is to look at what has happened in the past & assume it can & will happen again.

You'd think that was obvious but it's apparently not -- instead blaming climate change for failures. Sad.
Read 4 tweets
22 Dec
Supply chain working just fine w/LNG cargoes. Ships full of gas are changing itinerary mid-voyage heading to Europe from all over as the skyrocketing prices are attracting sellers.
amegroup.com/Website/Indust…
Asia's gas storage is filled to the brim so LNG cargoes are reversing course and heading to Europe.

Peru, US, and even Australia are redirecting ships. An armada of tankers will be rolling into European terminals taking advantage of sky high spot prices.
Gazprom apparently sent little gas westward over weekend to Germany, and none on Tuesday. Very cold conditions in Russia prioritized domestic consumption.

Temperatures -12°F in Moscow, well below normal for 10-days+. Frigid! Image
Read 4 tweets
20 Dec
Research paper (May 2021)

Forecast Hesitancy: Why are People Reluctant to Believe, Accept, or Respond to Various Weather, Water, and Climate Hazard-Related Forecasts?

link.springer.com/article/10.100…
“The varying degrees of reluctance by different individuals, groups, communities, and nations to respond to or rely on forecasts in order to take advantage of forecast-afforded lead time to prepare effectively for threats that are known to accompany different hydromet hazards.”
"Such hydromet hazards can include floods, flash floods, tornadoes, heatwaves, ice storms, tropical storms, forest and brush fires, dry spells and droughts, disease outbreaks, and ENSO-extreme anomalies of El Niño and La Niña."

Quoting from Glantz and Pierce (2021)
Read 13 tweets

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