Sales of new single‐family houses in Nov 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 744,000, this is 12.4% above the revised (down) Oct. rate of 662,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in Nov. was $416,900, 18.8% higher than one year ago and a new record high.
By stage of construction, the share of completed homes sold was 22%, down from 25% one year ago. Prior to the pandemic, completed homes made up the largest share of new homes sold. Today, it is homes under construction.
By stage of construction, the share of completed homes/ready to occupy inventory in November was 9.7%, down from 14.5% one year ago. While the share of new home inventory that is not started increased from 22% to 27%.
Record level new home prices may be pricing out some buyers. In Nov 2020, 33% of new home sales were priced below $300,000. In Nov 2021, only 14% of new home sales were priced <$300,000. Demand for new homes remains strong, but construction costs & prices have increased.
Borrowing costs remain low, demographic demand high and existing-home inventory remains near record lows, making a new home an attractive option. Yet higher construction costs (labor, lumber, materials) are being passed on to the consumer, resulting in higher new home prices.
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Existing-home sales rose 1.9% M/M in November. From one year ago, the inventory of unsold homes decreased 13.3% to 1.11 million (2.1-month supply at current sales pace). Properties remained on the market for 18 days & 83% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month.
A higher velocity of sales (lower days on markets) helps to explain a housing market characterized by both higher sales & lower inventory levels. Purchase apps have been pointing to a strong end to the year for home sales as low rates & demographics continue to boost demand.
Speaking of purchase applications- they are on track to end the year at the highest level since 2008 (excluding 2020). In the week ending 12/17, the avg purchase loan increased to $416,200 - the second highest amount ever (the highest was in February 2021 at $418,000).
Nov housing starts report is an indication of strength for the housing market. The # of permits issued, which can signal how much construction is in the pipeline, increased by 3.6%, homebuilding rose as total housing starts increased 11.8% M/M (SF up 11.3%).
This month saw an increase of 4% in the number of completed homes, which is additional new net supply added to the housing stock. The growth in completions means more homes on the market in the short-term, offering some immediate relief in alleviating housing supply shortages.
Builders are ending the year feeling confident, with the homebuilder sentiment index increasing for the 4th straight month in December – up one point to 84. Of the index’s three components, both current sales conditions & the traffic of prospective buyers rose 1 point.
U.S. households own nearly $34 trillion in owner-occupied real estate, $11 trillion in debt, and the remaining nearly $23 trillion in equity. The national "LTV" is at its lowest level in more than three decades. (1/6)
Mortgage debt as % of disposable income is at a near historic low. Many homeowners have locked into sub-4% rates. In fact as of Q1, the average interest rate on outstanding mortgage debt was appx. 3.5%. (2/6)
Lending standards today are strict & those who are qualifying for mortgages have great credit. The median credit score for approved borrowers was 788 during the Q1 of 2021, up from 773 one year ago. (3/6)
Agreed. Yield curve inversion and recession- let’s not confuse correlation with causation. It’s more of a spurious correlation, i.e. the real causal relationship is an unseen factor. So, what’s not spuriously correlated but actually related to the yield curve? (1/4)
1.) Our domestic economy is more interconnected than ever. When uncertainty increases somewhere else, we are the recipient of demand for safe harbor for assets (2/4)
2.) Federal Reserve bought lots of long-term treasury bonds and MBS- this domestic demand has worked to drive down yields. (3/4)