5⃣ A Remarkable Decline in Landfalling Hurricanes
Since 1945, the number of hurricanes that make landfall has declined by about a third rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/a-remarkable…
4⃣The Global Population Crisis that Never Was
Apocalyptic visions of over-population have always been grounded more in politics than science rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-global-p…
3⃣How to Understand the New IPCC Report: Part 2, Extreme Events
Contrary to what you've been reading, the massive new IPCC report offers grounds for optimism on climate science and policy rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/how-to-under…
2⃣Bombshell: World Athletics Admits its Research Underpinning DSD Regulations is "Potentially Misleading"
World Athletics admits flaws in research used to support the ban of Caster Semenya rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/bombshell-wo…
1⃣How to Understand the New IPCC Report: Part 1, Scenarios
Contrary to what you've been reading, the massive new IPCC report offers grounds for optimism on climate science and policy rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/how-to-under…
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5⃣Science Diplomacy and The Pandemic Treaty
Here are five important science-related issues to include in any future global pandemic treaty rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/science-dipl…
4⃣The Covid Vaccine and Learning to Love the Technological Fix
Our best hope for moving beyond the pandemic is vaccination, but not all problems can be addressed through technology rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-covid-va…
This would be a massive science integrity scandal under a R administration
Sitting White House official edits a paper for PNAS
Paper is used by that official to advocate policy b4 Congress
Paper later retracted due to errors & COI (was written by her mates & bro in law)
This is a really important number & I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere
FEMA estimates that in 2021 we should expect $141B is catastrophe losses in the US, based on current exposure, historical event frequency & loss ratios
The FEMA loss estimation CANNOT be compared to the spectacularly awful NOAA billion dollar losses
For weather losses, FEMA uses data processed by ASU/SHELDUS off of NOAA Storm Data, as below
NOAA Storm Data uses a bespoke special sauce to gin up losses (read on...)
NOAA's billion $ loss database mixes together direct and indirect losses (like business interruption & commodity markets) as well as non-event costs (e.g., "disaster restoration and wildfire restoration")
They also "scale up" insured loss data, which guarantees double counting
2021 focus of attention in climate research
via Google Scholar
1⃣RCP8.5 OR "RCP 8.5"= 5,850
2⃣"natural variability" AND climate= 4,510
3⃣RCP4.5 OR "RCP 4.5"= 4,460
4⃣RCP2.6 OR "RCP 2.6"= 3,120
5⃣RCP6.0 OR "RCP 6.0"= 1,540
More studies of a fiction than of "natural variability"
Lessons:
In 2021 RCPs continue to dominate the literature (= ~8x more studies) despite SSPs available & implausible scenarios lead both RCP & SSP studies