With central bank intervention/QE, asset markets have become prone to massive booms and busts.
Algos + online trading have made the markets super fast and now, big moves happen very quickly.
10 or 20 years ago, stocks used to decline 40-50% in a year or two and....
....now, they go down this much (and more) within weeks! In Nov '21, when Fed announced QE taper, many high growth stocks tanked by 40-70% within 6 weeks and during this period, my hedging strategy did not offer me full protection.
My high growth stocks declined more than the...
...ARK ETFs and in order to protect my capital, I sold all my stocks and to profit from the intense selling, also went net short.
Going forwards, when the tide of liquidity goes out again, instead of remaining invested and hedging, I may (once again) sell all stocks and...
Given FOMC stance, was expecting more selling - market proved me wrong today.
A number of the growth stocks which were down by 50-70% over past month rallied hard...has market discounted the worst?
On watch for base building.
Still of the view that before this cycle ends, we will see 15-20% pullback in the indices from their ATHs....
However, with most growth stocks already bombed out (down 50-70%) from their ATHs, perhaps they will now base out as indices roll over?
This game isn't easy!
Intellectual honesty more important to me than ego.
Today's price action (especially in growth stocks) was impressive! During '00-'03 bust, TMT stocks declined by 50-80% in 3 years, in this cycle many declined by 40-70% in a few months!
This QE cycle was massive (bigger than the previous rounds) and its unwind is likely to be quicker (4-5 months). Equity valuations are also a lot higher today!
Many expecting a year-end rally but $NDX peaked over 3 weeks ago and recent bounce failed well below ATH...
Anything can happen but it looks increasingly likely that the carnage is now spreading to the indices.
The risk/reward over the following weeks is unfavourable, stocks likely to be lower in 2022 before Fed comes to the rescue again.
The Fed will help but only after more pain.
Fairly obvious that we were in a QE-induced bubble.
In my interview last year (July 2020) with @Matt_Cochrane7 , I clearly mentioned that we were in an 'incipient bubble' which was likely to blow into a full fledged mania before the bust.
If the CPI print stays elevated and the Fed tightens rapidly, stocks likely to come under pressure over the next 2-3 months.
However, with massive drawdowns in growth stocks already behind us, weekly buying over next 2-3 months should reduce anxiety and deliver decent 5-yr IRR.
The indices not telling the story but November was a brutal month for high growth stocks!
ARK ETFs declined ~30% and many growth names tanked 40-60% in ONE MONTH!!
Markets are becoming super fast; the discounting machine is becoming more efficient.
After recent carnage, forward EV/revenue multiples for some high-growth ecommerce, fintech and software companies have almost reverted to their pre-COVID highs.
These stocks likely to remain volatile over near term, but should hand out decent returns over the next 4-5 years.
Gradual scaling into these stocks over the following couple of months likely to deliver good long-term IRR.
Those companies which are still richly valued remain vulnerable to multiple compression (due to tight Fed), so the risk/reward in those stocks is still unfavourable.
Bear-markets don't go down in a straight line, they are interrupted by sharp relief rallies.
In Nov, ARK ETFs declined by ~30% and after Monday's panic open, I covered my short positions. After relief rally, will short again.
Still feel risk assets will deflate for few weeks.