Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NQ_F
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Somehow our pinned tweet disappeared, so here it is again
This is a thread with information we think valuable:
1) Our Compact Guide to Understanding #Gamma
2) $SPX $Gamma structure Cheat Sheet
3) Our Compact Guide to Options Strategies
4) 2023 Options Calendar... and more
🧵
This is a thread with information we think valuable:
1) Our Compact Guide to Understanding #Gamma
2) $SPX $Gamma structure Cheat Sheet
3) Our Compact Guide to Options Strategies
4) 2023 Options Calendar... and more
🧵
Are you feeling some FOMO from missing out on this move today in the markets or specifically #ES_F?
Let me share the analysis I did for the group this week to prepare us for the breakout.
$SPX $SPY $ES #NQ_F $QQQ $SMH
Let me share the analysis I did for the group this week to prepare us for the breakout.
$SPX $SPY $ES #NQ_F $QQQ $SMH
Earlier this week I shared that we were tracking the box from Oct 2021 and that the group and I were looking for 3880 to hold and for us to see a move into 4020.
Here is what I shared with the group: First pic is 4hr Oct box. We were in a choppy 7 day 100 pt box while also creating a wedge. After one last HL at wedge support, price moved straight up, broke the box and went towards the next zone at 4360. 2nd Pic was 4hr chart yesterday.
How could you increase your win rate (%) as a swing trader?
Here are a few tricks I personally use that can help you 👇🧵
Here are a few tricks I personally use that can help you 👇🧵
Witam wszystkich, na początku chciałbym bardzo podziękować tym, którzy zrobili retwit mojego wczorajszego posta dzięki czemu tak wiele osób mogło dołączyć.
Dzisiaj powiemy sobie co to jest profil wolumenu z czego się składa oraz jak z niego korzystać w praktyce.
Dzisiaj powiemy sobie co to jest profil wolumenu z czego się składa oraz jak z niego korzystać w praktyce.
Profil wolumenu pokazuje jak zachodzi proces aukcyjny bazujący na wolumenie. Tworzy on tak zwany rozkład normalny. Jest to najważniejszy rozkład prawdopodobieństwa w statystyce (krzywa Gaussa)
Jego pierwowzorem jest profil rynkowy stworzony przez J.P Steidlmayera w połowie lat 80. Profil ten jest bliźniaczo podobny do wolumenowego rożni się tym że pokazuje proces aukcyjny z perspektywy czasu a nie wolumenu. (Opiszę to innym razem bo nie ma go na TradingV. (sierra, exo)
TODAY IN THE MARKETS
$VIX
Down day for the #SPX, and the #VIX closed down -6.26% and below 20DMA
Yesterday: large bearish engulfing candle
Today: Continuation
Despite the lack of sync this looks like a bullish development for $SPX
#ES_F #trading $SPY $ES #options #VIX $VVIX
$VIX
Down day for the #SPX, and the #VIX closed down -6.26% and below 20DMA
Yesterday: large bearish engulfing candle
Today: Continuation
Despite the lack of sync this looks like a bullish development for $SPX
#ES_F #trading $SPY $ES #options #VIX $VVIX
$XLF
#XLF was rejected at 20DMA
The sector remains above the 200DMA, and near support
For the October #SPX rally to continue it's necessary for #XLF to hold above $34.40
#trading #banks #options #ES_F $SPX $SPY $ES #DayTrading #Futures #inflation #ratehikes #Fed #Financial
#XLF was rejected at 20DMA
The sector remains above the 200DMA, and near support
For the October #SPX rally to continue it's necessary for #XLF to hold above $34.40
#trading #banks #options #ES_F $SPX $SPY $ES #DayTrading #Futures #inflation #ratehikes #Fed #Financial
TODAY IN THE MARKETS
$SPX
A low #CPI triggered a 114-point jump that took it above the dominant trendline. At the open, sell orders above that level initiated a pullback that took it 126 points down to the 20DMA
Not what we would call a 1-day reversal, more upside to come
#SPX
$SPX
A low #CPI triggered a 114-point jump that took it above the dominant trendline. At the open, sell orders above that level initiated a pullback that took it 126 points down to the 20DMA
Not what we would call a 1-day reversal, more upside to come
#SPX
Today in the markets:
$SPX $SPY $ES
#SPX bounced yesterday from 100DMA, moved higher today on slightly lower volume
Still below 20DMA. Failure to regain that level will be a significant crack in the October rally
Break below 3900 would be the death of the rally
#ES_F #SPX
$SPX $SPY $ES
#SPX bounced yesterday from 100DMA, moved higher today on slightly lower volume
Still below 20DMA. Failure to regain that level will be a significant crack in the October rally
Break below 3900 would be the death of the rally
#ES_F #SPX
The market today:
$SPX / $SPY / $ES
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its upward trending channel
It bounced from channel support
#SPX #ES_F #trading #options #futures #daytrading #TradingSignals
$SPX / $SPY / $ES
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its upward trending channel
It bounced from channel support
#SPX #ES_F #trading #options #futures #daytrading #TradingSignals
$DIA / $DJI / $YM
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its upward trending channel
It bounced from channel support
#DIA #DJIA #DowJones #trading #options #Futures #OptionsTrading #DayTrading #TradingSignals #YM_F
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its upward trending channel
It bounced from channel support
#DIA #DJIA #DowJones #trading #options #Futures #OptionsTrading #DayTrading #TradingSignals #YM_F
$QQQ / $NDX / $NQ
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its short-term upward trending channel and its mid-term downward channel
It bounced near channel support
#QQQ #NASDAQ #IXIC #NDX #trading #OptionsTrading #Futures #NQ_F #daytrading
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its short-term upward trending channel and its mid-term downward channel
It bounced near channel support
#QQQ #NASDAQ #IXIC #NDX #trading #OptionsTrading #Futures #NQ_F #daytrading
1)Portfolio Update Sep-end -
$ADYEY $BILL $CFLT $CRWD $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $NET $NU $OKTA $S $SNOW $SOFI $TOST $TWLO $ZI $ZS
Short #NQ_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +353.82% (28.24%pa)
$ACWI +32.59% (4.75%pa)
$SPX +65.17% (8.60%pa)
Contd...
$ADYEY $BILL $CFLT $CRWD $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $NET $NU $OKTA $S $SNOW $SOFI $TOST $TWLO $ZI $ZS
Short #NQ_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +353.82% (28.24%pa)
$ACWI +32.59% (4.75%pa)
$SPX +65.17% (8.60%pa)
Contd...
2) YTD return (2022)-
Portfolio (-)40.20%
$ACWI (-)26.69%
$SPX (-)24.77%
Biggest positions -
1) $GTLB 2) $DDOG 3) $SNOW 4) $CRWD 5) $NU
Since 30 Sep, portfolio is net short via #NQ_F
Portfolio (-)40.20%
$ACWI (-)26.69%
$SPX (-)24.77%
Biggest positions -
1) $GTLB 2) $DDOG 3) $SNOW 4) $CRWD 5) $NU
Since 30 Sep, portfolio is net short via #NQ_F
3) Commentary -
September was a tough month for stocks and despite hedging in 2nd half of the month, my portfolio suffered a big drawdown.
Earlier in the month, Dow Jones Industrials, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite breached their June lows and on Friday...
September was a tough month for stocks and despite hedging in 2nd half of the month, my portfolio suffered a big drawdown.
Earlier in the month, Dow Jones Industrials, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite breached their June lows and on Friday...
on the US open, 1530 Cet, volumes traded on #es_f and #nq_f were monster : 97.6%ile for ES and 99.6 for NQ (over 5 years interval!).
This selling climax triggered a short squeeze: few minutes later another big volume spike marked a short capitulation. ES then rallied to ...
1/
This selling climax triggered a short squeeze: few minutes later another big volume spike marked a short capitulation. ES then rallied to ...
1/
..4010, top of the trading range 3900-4015.
first comments:
1. buyers are now aggressively using selling activity to increase long not only on the bottom (3900) but at mid range too (3945)
2. 4015 is next resistance : it shd be passed soon to confirm this buying strength
2/
first comments:
1. buyers are now aggressively using selling activity to increase long not only on the bottom (3900) but at mid range too (3945)
2. 4015 is next resistance : it shd be passed soon to confirm this buying strength
2/
3. 3965 and especially 3945 must hold on any pullback. Buyers must defend these levels where they initiated this violent upside attack.
4. If these are broken to the downside, it means that 3900 will soon crash, with target 3780/3800.
3/3
4. If these are broken to the downside, it means that 3900 will soon crash, with target 3780/3800.
3/3
1)Portfolio Update Aug-end -
$ADYEY $BILL $CFLT $CRWD $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $NET $NU $OKTA $S $SHOP $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $ZI $ZS
Hedge - Short #NQ_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +460.36% (33.27%pa)
$ACWI +46.90% (6.62%pa)
$SPX +82.19% (10.51%pa)
Contd...
$ADYEY $BILL $CFLT $CRWD $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $NET $NU $OKTA $S $SHOP $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $ZI $ZS
Hedge - Short #NQ_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +460.36% (33.27%pa)
$ACWI +46.90% (6.62%pa)
$SPX +82.19% (10.51%pa)
Contd...
2) YTD return (2022)-
Portfolio (-)26.79%
$ACWI (-)18.78%
$SPX (-)17.02%
Biggest positions -
1) $SNOW 2) $NET 3) $GLBE 4) $DDOG 5) $NU
Contd...
Portfolio (-)26.79%
$ACWI (-)18.78%
$SPX (-)17.02%
Biggest positions -
1) $SNOW 2) $NET 3) $GLBE 4) $DDOG 5) $NU
Contd...
3) Commentary -
August was a choppy month (strong rally followed by a swift pullback) and my portfolio recorded a small gain versus declines for the major indices.
Over the past few weeks, a number of my companies reported strong operating results which caused their stocks...
August was a choppy month (strong rally followed by a swift pullback) and my portfolio recorded a small gain versus declines for the major indices.
Over the past few weeks, a number of my companies reported strong operating results which caused their stocks...
#NQ_F #NQ Post CPI landscape. Long setup into continuation, cover at the top of the balance - multi day resistance. A new bull flag is being formed.
Scenario of double top is in play, posted earlier in the morning.
Structural breaks during the upside move keeps the buy side in control. A rejection of the previously accepted level may offer a short setup. Double top first rule.
#NQ_F #NQ A large view. A clear pullback with a first stop around 950ish. A few potential scenarios are presented. A double top with lower high would be preferable for shorts, a back test of the broken wedge is for longs.
A smaller view. The price made to the bottom of the broken consolidation area. A clear bear flag. Post CPI action to watch. The default outcome of this pattern is to resume the downside. A failed bear flag is bullish.
the previous day close 13050ish acceptance/rejection to watch. may set the tone for today's day session.
#NQ_F #NQ A breach of the bull flag formation and downside move into yearly projected zone. At this point, a reversal is highly unlikely. We may see reactions from each level on first test.
Some time ago I posted a weekly view indicating that the wave 3 is about to end and we should expect a pullback - the wave 4 (38.2% ret).
buy side is active at the zone. they may stop the bleeding for now.
#NQ_F #NQ Inside session so far. A narrow range. The ON session range expansion to watch, it would set a short term directional bias to tag along. The air pocket below is a good candidate to fill, but let the market show its hand first.
Market listens :) The air pocket is filled.
At this point the previous day low is a resistance. The bearish sentiment, triggered by yesterday's fake out, is intact. Buyers may attempt to change it at the opening.
How to Read my Chart:
E = Early Entry
S = Safer Entry
D = Daily Entry (Previous Day High / Low)
Wk = Weekly Entry (Previous Week High / Low)
BF = Broadening Formation
D/UTL = Down/Up Trendline
IB = Inside Bar1⃣
OB = Outside Bar3⃣
FTC = Full Time Frame
#StocksafterDark #SADTips
E = Early Entry
S = Safer Entry
D = Daily Entry (Previous Day High / Low)
Wk = Weekly Entry (Previous Week High / Low)
BF = Broadening Formation
D/UTL = Down/Up Trendline
IB = Inside Bar1⃣
OB = Outside Bar3⃣
FTC = Full Time Frame
#StocksafterDark #SADTips
#SADnation - You do NOT need to trade every Day. You do NOT need to hit the🌙on each trade. You do NOT need to go ALL in. You do NEED a plan & CONSISTENCY is🔑
2022 has 251 days:
$100/D = $25.1K
$500/D = 125.5K
$1K/D = 251K
$5K/D = $1.25M
2023 = 250D
#SADucation #SADtips
1⃣
2022 has 251 days:
$100/D = $25.1K
$500/D = 125.5K
$1K/D = 251K
$5K/D = $1.25M
2023 = 250D
#SADucation #SADtips
1⃣
#SADnation Have you gone 🟢➡️🔴?
Have a 🎯 & 🛑 in mind before entering into a trade.
Learn to scale out of your positions & adjust your 🛑Where you place them is your personal Risk➡️Reward tolerance.
Learn to get ⬆️ & walkaway when you’re🟢.
5% > -1%
Wins compound.
2️⃣
Have a 🎯 & 🛑 in mind before entering into a trade.
Learn to scale out of your positions & adjust your 🛑Where you place them is your personal Risk➡️Reward tolerance.
Learn to get ⬆️ & walkaway when you’re🟢.
5% > -1%
Wins compound.
2️⃣
On changing one's mind (aka "flip flopping" on FinTwit) -
"Probably one of my greatest assets is that I'm open minded + can change my mind very quickly" - Stanley Druckenmiller
"In Wall Street, the man who does not change his mind, will soon have no change to mind" - WD Gann
"Probably one of my greatest assets is that I'm open minded + can change my mind very quickly" - Stanley Druckenmiller
"In Wall Street, the man who does not change his mind, will soon have no change to mind" - WD Gann
"If you bet, if the situation changes, you must change" - Stan Druckenmiller
"Those who fail to adapt to change, risk everything" - Bruce Kovner
"A wise man changes his mind, a fool never" - WD Gann
"Conviction. Conviction. Conviction. New facts. Change." - Marc Andreessen.
"Those who fail to adapt to change, risk everything" - Bruce Kovner
"A wise man changes his mind, a fool never" - WD Gann
"Conviction. Conviction. Conviction. New facts. Change." - Marc Andreessen.
"Warren and I are very good at changing our prior conclusions. We work at developing that faculty because without it, disaster often comes" - C. Munger
"Change. The investors' only certainty" - T. Rowe Price
When new facts emerge, I do change my mind quickly. Guilty as charged.
"Change. The investors' only certainty" - T. Rowe Price
When new facts emerge, I do change my mind quickly. Guilty as charged.
Thread 🧵about the market.
1/n Family, friends and some followers ask me where I think the market is heading. Some are bulls, others are bears. It's a good question. Here is my answer. I have no freaking idea. $SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ #ES_F #NQ_F
1/n Family, friends and some followers ask me where I think the market is heading. Some are bulls, others are bears. It's a good question. Here is my answer. I have no freaking idea. $SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ #ES_F #NQ_F
2/n Maybe I'm not as smart as some gurus who predict a rebound to new highs, or some others who think this is going way lower. Or, I have learned my lessons. This is what I mean.
3/n During the dot com bear market, after a 20% drop I thought the market was going to rebound. I didn't lose much from trading, I lost from my stock portfolio. Because after it dropped 30%, I sold in panic and took the loss. I didn't add when the market bottomed in 2003.
1)Portfolio Apr-end -
$ADYEY $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MNDY $NU $OKTA $PLTR $QS $S $SHOP $SOFI $SNOW $TWLO $U $UPST $ZI
Short - $ARKK #NQ_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +612.94% (41.40%pa)
$ACWI +56.62% (8.23%pa)
$SPX +90.34% (12.02%pa)
Contd...
$ADYEY $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MNDY $NU $OKTA $PLTR $QS $S $SHOP $SOFI $SNOW $TWLO $U $UPST $ZI
Short - $ARKK #NQ_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +612.94% (41.40%pa)
$ACWI +56.62% (8.23%pa)
$SPX +90.34% (12.02%pa)
Contd...
2) YTD return (2022)-
Portfolio (-)7.74%
$ACWI (-)13.40%
$SPX (-)13.31%
Biggest positions -
1) $GTLB 2) $DDOG 3) $S 4) $ADYEY 5) $SNOW
Contd...
Portfolio (-)7.74%
$ACWI (-)13.40%
$SPX (-)13.31%
Biggest positions -
1) $GTLB 2) $DDOG 3) $S 4) $ADYEY 5) $SNOW
Contd...
3) Commentary -
April was a tough month for risk assets and stocks came under pressure due to (a) Fed policy and (b) elevated valuations.
This liquidity cycle was extreme (unprecedented easing followed by abrupt tightening), therefore we've seen huge moves in stocks in...
April was a tough month for risk assets and stocks came under pressure due to (a) Fed policy and (b) elevated valuations.
This liquidity cycle was extreme (unprecedented easing followed by abrupt tightening), therefore we've seen huge moves in stocks in...
Thread 1/5: After seeing such a clean rejection off of the 30m OR (opening range) for #NQ_F on Friday, I thought of @Michigandolf, who loves the 30m OR. I then wondered how often we close below or above the 30m OR. I decided to do the math so you don’t have to.
Although #ES_F did not reject the 30m OR like NQ on Friday, it did reject the open. You can see the highlighted area around open is the 30 second OR, popularized by @paxtrader777 and shared by a few others. My favorite opening range on my chart.
I was surprised, I would have guessed we closed outside of the 30m OR ~50% of the time or less, but actually we close outside of the 30m OR 73% of the time. NQ even closes outside of the 60m OR more times than it closes inside.
1)Portfolio Dec-end -
Long - $ADYEY $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MQ $S $SE $SOFI $TOST $TWLO $TLT
Short - $ARKK, Russell 2000 futures #RTY_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +672.73% (46.76%pa)
$ACWI +80.02% (11.66%pa)
$SPX +119.60% (15.90%pa)
Contd...
Long - $ADYEY $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MQ $S $SE $SOFI $TOST $TWLO $TLT
Short - $ARKK, Russell 2000 futures #RTY_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +672.73% (46.76%pa)
$ACWI +80.02% (11.66%pa)
$SPX +119.60% (15.90%pa)
Contd...
2) YTD return (2021)-
Portfolio +21.81%
$ACWI +16.80%
$SPX +26.89%
Biggest positions -
1) $TLT 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $MQ 5) $SOFI
Contd....
Portfolio +21.81%
$ACWI +16.80%
$SPX +26.89%
Biggest positions -
1) $TLT 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $MQ 5) $SOFI
Contd....
3) Commentary -
December was a brutal month for growth stocks as the previous month's selling continued before a relief rally briefly reversed the downtrend.
At the beginning of the month, I sold out of all stocks and around mid-month, positioned my portfolio for the post-QE..
December was a brutal month for growth stocks as the previous month's selling continued before a relief rally briefly reversed the downtrend.
At the beginning of the month, I sold out of all stocks and around mid-month, positioned my portfolio for the post-QE..
Fed announced QE "taper" in Nov and accelerated it in Dec....but data shows that over past 4 weeks, its balance-sheet still grew by ~$120b!
In anticipation of the end of QE, hedge funds dumped tech stocks in Nov/Dec. With Fed still pumping $120b/month, will HFs now ↗️ exposure?
In anticipation of the end of QE, hedge funds dumped tech stocks in Nov/Dec. With Fed still pumping $120b/month, will HFs now ↗️ exposure?
After realising that despite QE "taper" announcements, the Federal Reserve's balance-sheet still grew by $120 billion over the past four weeks, I covered my #NQ_F short at a loss, also my long $ futures position and $TLT
I've also increased exposure to growth stocks.
I've also increased exposure to growth stocks.
In November, the Fed announced it would reduce QE by $15 billion per month and in December, it announced it would reduce it by $30 billion per month (with view to ending it in March).
Despite these 'hawkish' declarations, its balance-sheet still grew by ~$120b over past 4 weeks!
Despite these 'hawkish' declarations, its balance-sheet still grew by ~$120b over past 4 weeks!
Portfolio positioning -
Long - US$ futures, $TLT + some growth stocks, $ cash
Short - NASDAQ futures #NQ_F
Portfolio is net short stocks
Long - US$ futures, $TLT + some growth stocks, $ cash
Short - NASDAQ futures #NQ_F
Portfolio is net short stocks
We are dealing with a QE cycle (not rate hike cycle) -
That'll come later...
In the past, each QE-end was followed by ~20% decline in the indices from ATHs...back then, valuations were way lower too.
That'll come later...
In the past, each QE-end was followed by ~20% decline in the indices from ATHs...back then, valuations were way lower too.
Word of caution -
No crystal ball here, so anything can happen....
However, am familiar with stock market cycles and Fed's QE cycles....both suggest caution during H1 '22.
This is not a recommendation, please do own DD and I reserve the right to be wrong.
No crystal ball here, so anything can happen....
However, am familiar with stock market cycles and Fed's QE cycles....both suggest caution during H1 '22.
This is not a recommendation, please do own DD and I reserve the right to be wrong.
1/x
Wow, my first thread.
Analyzing the NQZ21 contract, I looked at 9/2 to 12/10 and at various opening ranges (OR), gap fills and overnight high/low. I only looked at the last 72 days. I downloaded data from Sierra chart and analyzed it in excel. #NQ_F #NQ
Wow, my first thread.
Analyzing the NQZ21 contract, I looked at 9/2 to 12/10 and at various opening ranges (OR), gap fills and overnight high/low. I only looked at the last 72 days. I downloaded data from Sierra chart and analyzed it in excel. #NQ_F #NQ
2/x
I did use NQ close data from Yahoo finance because the previous close line on SC was being stubborn and not giving me correct data (probably my fault). There’s a bunch of numbers and percentages, you can scroll to the end if you’d like, or ignore it. idc.
I did use NQ close data from Yahoo finance because the previous close line on SC was being stubborn and not giving me correct data (probably my fault). There’s a bunch of numbers and percentages, you can scroll to the end if you’d like, or ignore it. idc.
3/x
30m OR L =LOD 38.9% (28/72)
30m OR H =HOD 31.9% or (23/72)
So 70.8% (51/72) of the time, the 30 min OR puts in HOD or LOD.
Which means both sides are broken 29.2% (21/72) because the 30m OR did not put in both the HOD and LOD at any point.
30m OR L =LOD 38.9% (28/72)
30m OR H =HOD 31.9% or (23/72)
So 70.8% (51/72) of the time, the 30 min OR puts in HOD or LOD.
Which means both sides are broken 29.2% (21/72) because the 30m OR did not put in both the HOD and LOD at any point.
