Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NQ_F

Most recents (20)

Thread 🧵about the market.

1/n Family, friends and some followers ask me where I think the market is heading. Some are bulls, others are bears. It's a good question. Here is my answer. I have no freaking idea. $SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ #ES_F #NQ_F
2/n Maybe I'm not as smart as some gurus who predict a rebound to new highs, or some others who think this is going way lower. Or, I have learned my lessons. This is what I mean.
3/n During the dot com bear market, after a 20% drop I thought the market was going to rebound. I didn't lose much from trading, I lost from my stock portfolio. Because after it dropped 30%, I sold in panic and took the loss. I didn't add when the market bottomed in 2003.
Read 11 tweets
1)Portfolio Apr-end -

$ADYEY $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MNDY $NU $OKTA $PLTR $QS $S $SHOP $SOFI $SNOW $TWLO $U $UPST $ZI

Short - $ARKK #NQ_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +612.94% (41.40%pa)
$ACWI +56.62% (8.23%pa)
$SPX +90.34% (12.02%pa)

Contd...
2) YTD return (2022)-

Portfolio (-)7.74%
$ACWI (-)13.40%
$SPX (-)13.31%

Biggest positions -

1) $GTLB 2) $DDOG 3) $S 4) $ADYEY 5) $SNOW

Contd...
3) Commentary -

April was a tough month for risk assets and stocks came under pressure due to (a) Fed policy and (b) elevated valuations.

This liquidity cycle was extreme (unprecedented easing followed by abrupt tightening), therefore we've seen huge moves in stocks in...
Read 10 tweets
Thread 1/5: After seeing such a clean rejection off of the 30m OR (opening range) for #NQ_F on Friday, I thought of @Michigandolf, who loves the 30m OR. I then wondered how often we close below or above the 30m OR. I decided to do the math so you don’t have to.
Although #ES_F did not reject the 30m OR like NQ on Friday, it did reject the open. You can see the highlighted area around open is the 30 second OR, popularized by @paxtrader777 and shared by a few others. My favorite opening range on my chart.
I was surprised, I would have guessed we closed outside of the 30m OR ~50% of the time or less, but actually we close outside of the 30m OR 73% of the time. NQ even closes outside of the 60m OR more times than it closes inside.
Read 5 tweets
1)Portfolio Dec-end -

Long - $ADYEY $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MQ $S $SE $SOFI $TOST $TWLO $TLT

Short - $ARKK, Russell 2000 futures #RTY_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +672.73% (46.76%pa)
$ACWI +80.02% (11.66%pa)
$SPX +119.60% (15.90%pa)

Contd...
2) YTD return (2021)-

Portfolio +21.81%
$ACWI +16.80%
$SPX +26.89%

Biggest positions -

1) $TLT 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $MQ 5) $SOFI

Contd....
3) Commentary -

December was a brutal month for growth stocks as the previous month's selling continued before a relief rally briefly reversed the downtrend.

At the beginning of the month, I sold out of all stocks and around mid-month, positioned my portfolio for the post-QE..
Read 16 tweets
Fed announced QE "taper" in Nov and accelerated it in Dec....but data shows that over past 4 weeks, its balance-sheet still grew by ~$120b!

In anticipation of the end of QE, hedge funds dumped tech stocks in Nov/Dec. With Fed still pumping $120b/month, will HFs now ↗️ exposure?
After realising that despite QE "taper" announcements, the Federal Reserve's balance-sheet still grew by $120 billion over the past four weeks, I covered my #NQ_F short at a loss, also my long $ futures position and $TLT

I've also increased exposure to growth stocks.
In November, the Fed announced it would reduce QE by $15 billion per month and in December, it announced it would reduce it by $30 billion per month (with view to ending it in March).

Despite these 'hawkish' declarations, its balance-sheet still grew by ~$120b over past 4 weeks!
Read 4 tweets
Portfolio positioning -

Long - US$ futures, $TLT + some growth stocks, $ cash
Short - NASDAQ futures #NQ_F

Portfolio is net short stocks
We are dealing with a QE cycle (not rate hike cycle) -

That'll come later...

In the past, each QE-end was followed by ~20% decline in the indices from ATHs...back then, valuations were way lower too.
Word of caution -

No crystal ball here, so anything can happen....

However, am familiar with stock market cycles and Fed's QE cycles....both suggest caution during H1 '22.

This is not a recommendation, please do own DD and I reserve the right to be wrong.
Read 5 tweets
1/x
Wow, my first thread.
Analyzing the NQZ21 contract, I looked at 9/2 to 12/10 and at various opening ranges (OR), gap fills and overnight high/low. I only looked at the last 72 days. I downloaded data from Sierra chart and analyzed it in excel. #NQ_F #NQ
2/x
I did use NQ close data from Yahoo finance because the previous close line on SC was being stubborn and not giving me correct data (probably my fault). There’s a bunch of numbers and percentages, you can scroll to the end if you’d like, or ignore it. idc.
3/x
30m OR L =LOD 38.9% (28/72)
30m OR H =HOD 31.9% or (23/72)
So 70.8% (51/72) of the time, the 30 min OR puts in HOD or LOD.
Which means both sides are broken 29.2% (21/72) because the 30m OR did not put in both the HOD and LOD at any point.
Read 12 tweets
A number of you have asked about my portfolio holdings, so here it is -

Long - US$ futures, $TLT , US$ cash
Short - $ARKK $ARKF #NQ_F $NET $RIVN

Word of caution - This is not a recommendation and depending on what happens in the markets, this might change quickly.
To the trolls who are again chirping and claiming I'm being dishonest about my holdings. Attached is my YTD portfolio performance graph .... +36.7%

This return wouldn't be possible if I was still long growth stocks and faking my holdings.
Here is the post from 1 December where I wrote about raising a lot of cash, ended up selling all remaining long positions.

Hope this clarifies this matter.
Read 3 tweets
$NQ - I think I'll keep posting the NQ plan for a few more days, it's been fun to share and I hope some have found it helpful ✌️

Best of luck tonight/tomorrow
$QQQ #NQ_F $NDX ImageImageImage
"Below the spike low and 16366, I would look for shorts down to 16330, 16293. Buyers should defend 16277.75-16260." Image
again. Image
Read 5 tweets
1) Portfolio update Aug-end -

$ADYEY $AGC $CRWD $DLO $DOCU $GLBE $LSPD $MELI $MTTR $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $QELL $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TWLO $U $UPST $ZI #NQ_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +830.25% (56.21%pa)
$ACWI +77.51% (12.16%pa)
$SPX +108.30% (15.81%pa)

Contd...
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +46.92%
$ACWI +14.97%
$SPX +20.41%

Biggest positions -

1) $DLO 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $GLBE 5) $PLTR

Contd....
Commentary -

August was a decent month and today marks the 5th anniversary of my post-retirement high-growth portfolio.

My portfolio's YTD return is +46.92% and over the past 5 years, the return is +830.25% (nine-bagger on the entire portfolio) representing a CAGR of 56.21%...
Read 13 tweets
1) Portfolio update Jun-end -

$ADYEY $AFTPY $AGC $CRWD $DKNG $DOCU $FVRR $GHVI $GLBE $LSPD $MELI $OZON $PINS $PLTR $ROKU $RTP $SE $SHOP $SNAP $SNOW $TWLO $UPST

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +731.24% (55.03%pa)
$ACWI +72.91% (12.01%pa)
$SPX +97.96% (15.19%pa)
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +29.38%
$ACWI +11.40%
$SPX +14.41%

Biggest positions -

1) $GLBE 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $ROKU 5) $SNAP

New buys - $FVRR
Sales - $CPNG $PATH

Contd....
Commentary -

June turned out to be a good month for my portfolio.

After the spring swoon, growth stocks finally rebounded on the back of declining long dated rates and this benefited my portfolio.

During the month, I made a handful of changes. In terms of sales, I got rid..
Read 14 tweets
Haven't seen an Everything Rally like this in a longgg time
starting this week at the highs of last week for #NQ_F #ES_F. Seems like bullish sentiment might be building on the notion that stocks survived crypto wipeout and that is now another risk point removed.
probably want to watch the dollar #DX_F $DXY today for any sign a.m. Everything Trade doesn't hold up. It's been oscillating around 90, the low from Feb & a busy trading level. Related, yields in middle of 3-month range but right at top from 7yr auction spaz
Read 6 tweets
1) Portfolio update Apr-end -

$ADYEY $AFTPY $AGC $CPNG $CRWD $CURI $DKNG $DOCU $GHVI $IPOE $MELI $OPEN $OZON $PATH $PINS $PLTR $ROKU $RTP $SE $SHOP $SFTW $SKLZ $SNAP $SNOW $TWLO $UPST

Portfolio is currently hedged

Short $ARKK

Contd...
2) Return since 1 Sept 2016 -

Portfolio +572.00%
$ACWI +69.66%
$SPX +92.60%

CAGR since 1 Sept 2016 -

Portfolio +50.37%
$ACWI +11.99%
$SPX +15.07%

Contd...
3) YTD return -

Portfolio +4.45%
$ACWI +8.6%
$SPX +11.32%

Biggest positions -

1) $MELI 2) $SE 3) $SNOW 4) $SNAP 5) $AGC

Contd....
Read 16 tweets
1) Portfolio update Mar-end -

$ACTC $ADYEY $CCIV $CPNG $CRWD $CURI $DKNG $DOCU $GHVI $IPOE $MELI $OPEN $OZON $PINS $PLTR $RBLX $ROKU $RTP $SE $SFTW $SKLZ $SNOW $TWLO $UPST #NQ_F

Return since 1 Sep'16 -

My a/c +541.12%
$ACWI +61.93%
$SPX +83.01%
2) CAGR since inception (1 Sep '16) -

Portfolio +50.03%
$ACWI +11.10%
$SPX +14.11%

YTD return -

Portfolio +1.13%
$ACWI +4.88%
$SPX +5.77%

Cont...
3) Biggest positions -

1) $MELI 2) $SE 3) $UPST 4) $CPNG 5) $OZON

Commentary -

Wow! What a month!

March turned out be a brutal month for growth stocks, consequently my portfolio suffered a large drawdown.

At the end of Feb, my YTD return was 16.94% and those gains...
Read 16 tweets
Mid-month portfolio update -

$ACTC $ADYEY $AFTPY $CCIV $CRWD $CURI $DKNG $DOCU $EH $FSRV $GHVI $IPOE $LOTZ* $MELI $OPEN $OZON $PINS $PLTR $PSAC* $ROKU $RTP $SE $SFTW $SKLZ $SNOW $TWLO #NQ_F

*beaten down rentals

Levered long, no hedges in place
Thoughts -

Sold $SQ due to weak growth estimates/bitcoin exposure
Sold $SHOP due to 45X multiple, pre-COVID was 15-20X
Sold $STNE to add more to severely beaten down names
Sold $VRM after 8 months as tough biz/execution issues
Sold $ACIC and $AACQ to invest in $CCIV $EH $RTP
I'd bought shares of $SHOP in spring '20 during COVID crash and over past year, the stock has quadrupled!

Its multiple is super-stretched now (pre-COVID was between 10-22X). Still love the business, after multiple has normalised, will probably re-invest.

Chart from @ycharts Image
Read 3 tweets
#ES_F futures depth. Charts like this have been circling around for a while, but I think this is one of the most critical pieces of data that can't be ignored. Highlights the shift that occurred in the markets, and the vulnerabilities that loom from the current lack of liquidity. Image
It's no coincidence that the $VIX spike in Feb 2018, Volmageddon, coincided with this shift in declining liquidity and triggered money flowing out of equities. Volmageddon marked a regime change in volatility, and hence declining liquidity that creates more fragile equity markets ImageImageImage
Came across this; tradable size across all R3000 stocks with an expected impact of 0.1%. This is consistent with the decline in #ES_F liquidity, further highlighting increasing divergences underneath the surface & the fragility that has emerged in the market. Image
Read 8 tweets
#NQ_F down roughly 10% from the high and many high-beta growth stocks down ~20%.

Selloff may continue in the near term but the r/r now seems favourable for long-term investors.
Weekly buying in the growth names over the following 4-6 weeks likely to deliver decent returns 12-18 months out.

My 2 cents, not advice.
I've nibbled on some #NQ_F contracts

Leveraged position (multi-month rental)
Read 3 tweets
Bueno amig@s, vamos cerrando máquinas aprovechando para compartir un hilo, explicando una operación de última hora en el #NQ_F (contrato mini de junio y para desearos a tod@s un feliz (y confinado) fin de semana.
😷 👇
#orderflow
Entrada buscando un giro tipo extremo por debajo del Value Area. Día tipo Balance.
Nota: se publican las #NFP de los EEUU en condiciones especiales por el #COVID19 y sin la volatilidad esperada.
1 -> 1er aviso: pullback
2 -> 2º aviso: vol. de parada
3 -> Entrada: absorción
Tras varios intentos por frenar el precio, entramos en la 3ª viendo la absorción de las ventas en forma de clúster. Confirmado el giro, buscamos una segunda entrada a favor del movimiento.
Read 15 tweets
I was a top step arb clerk in the front month Eurodollar pit for 10 yrs before I earned my shot at trading. I didn’t want to fill orders. I wanted to trade. I knew nobody when I walked in the floor. No rich dad. I had to earn it. My boss backed me, I borrowed trading capital.
Clerking for one of the biggest brokers on the floor trained me to see and hear and compute a lot of info and act on it quickly. That stood me well as a trader. First 6 months I couldn’t make a nickel. Seat leases were $2800 a month. New wife and a new baby. Bartending at night
To pay the mortgage on our condo. My ex wife and I worked hard to give me the time to learn. The #nq_f was $100 a tick then. I had $251 in my account. Looking for backers or a clerk job, I met Judd Hirschberg @whitewavetrader. Judd was one of the best Yen and gold traders ever.
Read 22 tweets
1) I've run this hedging strategy on most global indices now and its been very effective in reducing drawdowns.

Here are the rules -

When price closes < 150d ema AND 5d ema < 7 day ema --> hedge. When 5day ema closes > 7 day ema, you cover. When price > 150d ema, no hedging.
2) This hedging strategy has protected capital from EVERY major stock market decline for almost 100 years and it should continue to do the same in the future.

This hedging strategy reduces returns during strong bull-markets, but makes a lot of money during strong bear-markets..
3) Depending on the index, even though the upside is reduced by 2-3% per year during powerful bull-markets, by hedging, one is able to stay fully invested in his/her stocks and yet avoid nasty drawdowns. So, this may be more suitable for growth stock investors who target...
Read 16 tweets

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