1/6
According to Caixin, "China has condemned a city government in the northern province of Hebei for arbitrarily fining and collecting fees from thousands of businesses to fill the hole in its coffers".
caixinglobal.com/2021-12-23/cas…
2/6
The Bazhou government is being criticized on the grounds that randomly charging fees and penalties simply to bridge their fiscal gap "has undermined market confidence and the people’s livelihood."
3/6
While this may seem reasonable in principle, it sidesteps altogether what I suspect is a much larger, systemic problem, and one that affects a lot of local governments besides that of Bazhou.
4/6
As Caixin goes on to explain, "the case reflects the struggles of some local governments in making ends meet, as slowing economic growth and the troubled property market have bitten into fiscal revenue, especially that from land sales."
5/6
For many local government it is damned if you don't and damned if you do. They will be criticized for failing to meet their spending and growth obligations, but also criticized for taking the necessary steps to do so.
6/6
But between rising spending commitments "to maintain social stability", falling revenues, and restrictions on their ability to increase their borrowing further, in at least some cases something will have to give.

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More from @michaelxpettis

22 Dec
1/10
I was wrong in the tweet below. Turkey's new deposit scheme is not like Mexico's 1994 Tesobonos, in which peso payments on onshore bonds were indexed to the US dollar, but with higher interest rates. This is much more dynamic and non-linear.
2/10
In that sense it has more in common with the dual-currency bond issue that marked Mexico's return to the international capital markets (1998?) after the December 1994 crisis and the $50 billion rescue package organized by the Clinton administration in January 1995.
3/10
As I understand it, with the new deposit scheme, investors are getting lira deposits at the normal interest rate plus (in effect) a free put option that allows them to sell their lira for a fixed amount of dollars at the current rate (i.e. at the money).
Read 10 tweets
21 Dec
1/7
"Factory gate prices in China are far outpacing consumer prices, signaling a gulf between weak domestic demand and strong overseas demand that is powered in particular by U.S. hunger for China’s manufactured goods."
wsj.com/articles/boomi… via @WSJ
2/7
This is a point too easily overlooked: while strong US demand might explain surging Chinese exports, contrary to what most analysts seem to think it does not explain a surging Chinese trade surplus.
3/7
In principle, surging Chinese exports should raise the income of workers in the manufacturing sector, which should in turn raise Chinese household consumption, and this is turn should cause imports to rise broadly in line with exports.
Read 8 tweets
21 Dec
1/8
"One of the myths of financial globalisation is that it enforces macro discipline," says Dani Rodrik. The myth, in other words, is that foreign capital (i.e. bond vigilantes) rewards good fiscal and monetary policy and punishes bad.
ft.com/content/4a7303…
2/8
In fact it seems to do no such thing. "Turkey’s economic experiment," Rodrik points out, "ran much longer than it should have, thanks to the more elastic supply of finance. The economic costs will be larger as a result."
3/8
Rodrik of course is right. Financial globalization would enforce macro discipline only if the bulk of international financial flows consisted either of straight trade financing or of careful, long-term capital looking for its most productive uses around the world.
Read 9 tweets
19 Dec
1/4
Former PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan on Chinese trade-related subsidies: "In China, subsidies are mainly granted by local governments."
caixinglobal.com/2021-12-18/wee…
2/4
He continues: "The central government doesn’t wish to provide such subsidies. It is on a tight budget. But as the central government usually allocates a lot of funds to local governments, the latter have the money to offer subsidies."
3/4
He concludes: "If the central government does not want these actions to continue, it has the power to correct them. It can do so through, for example, a budget review mechanism to encourage local governments to spend their funds more effectively."
Read 4 tweets
19 Dec
1/4
It is worth looking back at old articles to remember how – for example nine months ago when this article was published – Beijing had seemed determined to bring debt under control, even if that meant sacrificing growth.
caixinglobal.com/2021-03-12/in-…
2/4
As Caixin reminds us, last year Beijing had "opened the debt spigot" because of Covid-19 and had put aside "its long-standing commitment to tackling the mountains of debt and hidden financial risks accumulated by local authorities from years of investment spending."
3/4
"But now," Caixing continues, "with the recovery on solid ground and GDP growth expected to rebound to at least 6% this year, dealing with record local government borrowing is firmly back in policymakers’ crosshairs as they refocus on long-term priorities."
Read 4 tweets
19 Dec
1/4
"Chen Yulu, deputy PBOC governor, said China should build all kinds of 'firewalls' to guard against systemic financial risks, while also increasing the effectiveness of financial regulation."
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
2/4
The PBoC is extremely worried about China's vulnerability to changes in external monetary conditions and wants to implement "safeguards" that protect the domestic financial system from the possibility of external disruption.
3/4
Safeguards, of course, is just another name for capital controls. The irony is that Beijing wants to increase the role of the RMB as an international currency while at the same time rejecting the risks that come with it.
Read 4 tweets

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