Was going to do a quick pre-xmas thread on where we are but SAGE minutes from their meeting yesterday covers all my points!
So here is a whistestop tour of the main bits
Omicron Growth might be slowing, but only from ~2 day doubling to ~3 day doubling. So still growing fast.
Not clear why growth is slowing: likely combo of more cautious behaviours, Plan B (e.g. work from home), moving to different age groups, more reluctance to test
Number of people in hospital with Omicron doubling every 4 to 5 days – this is rapid and so far they are younger. Also increases in transmission within hospitals. SAGE expects large increase in admissions as older people get infected over Christmas ☹
There is increasing evidence that Omicron *outcomes* are milder than Delta. How much is intrinsic to the virus, or that Omicron infects many more with vax or prev infection (with milder disease) is unclear.
Many omicron infections simply would NOT HAVE HAPPENED with Delta.
However sheer numbers of infections remain important.
For the NHS – what age groups they happen in and how much a waning booster protects against hospitalisations (hopefully a lot) is crucial.
Timing and peak of (hosp) wave depend on these factors.
The hosp peak might still be as high as previous peaks (very very bad for NHS). The sooner interventions happen to prevent infection the better - particularly if they stop older people getting infected.
DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO NUMBERS THIS WEEKEND.
Test seeking, test processing and data updates all go screwy over Christmas – we have to wait till next week now.
Plus the impact of Christmas mixing won’t be seen until end of the year at the very earliest.
Finally, wishing you all a happy (and safe) Christmas.
Please test regularly using LFDs and don't mix if positive OR if you have *any* cold like symptoms or otherwise feel ill.
Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.
I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.
TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.
This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.
Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....
TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point
let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.
The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.
Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.
TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots
This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6