I'll tell you what's happening, it's time for another session of Macro Confessions and I welcome back the boundless wit and curiosity of @writes_sweeney
It's been an epic adventure as I've travelled back from St Barts to the mania which is London and something which looks and feels a lot like the flu.
I immediately fell asleep on the puddle hopper that connects to Saint Martin
I then needed to cross the island fast. I arrived at the wrong airport and traffic is a disaster. SO hopped on the back of a super fast motorbike with butt cheeks clenched
And then the sleeping pills really kicked in and for a moment I feared I was boarding the wrong flight
But all worked out in the end and I woke-up safely in Paris; hey, thought I was going to London..?
This week's show is pure nonsense and indulgence. Make of it what you will. We examine my relationship with Crispin Odey back in the day, my vexation at seeing music business valuations explode to the upside this year
I tried to buy EMI back in 2005 when valuations where perhaps just 5% of today's levels. And of course it's A Blue Christmas, and we are channelling Elvis as we pick over this week's big currency gyrations from the Turkish lira.
Turkey, a country of 85 million inhabitants but a GDP equal to Berkshire Hathaway or 3x Elon Musks or < 25% of the present mkt cap of Apple. Let’s have morbid fun. Today's FT says Turkish deposits are 1.1 trn lira. GDP at end of last year was $720bn or a generous 9.5 trn lira
So deposits are only 12% gdp which is really small as the lira really is not « our power » Turks hold a third of their money in gold. Funny no one cites their BTC holdings... They can also choose to keep they savings in $ bank accounts
But the Argentina experience at the turn of this century suggests this is useless - they’ll seize whatever you've got - CDs, cassettes, vinyl, if they can steal it they will. Paranoïa and fear are really your only protection…
Remember what I was saying last week. Practice identifying change rather than mastering daily chores cause the fake system is gonna smash and when it does...
...oh boy, you're gonna need to un-logic your thinking to survive and prosper. Apples and Turkey ?? Merry Christmas one and all...
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I'm still buzzing from yesterday's podcast episode with Angus Fletcher, professor of mushrooms...hope you have time to check out our Hedge Fund Masterclass -Creativity
It's on all the podcast platforms.
Post your feedback here...or on my instagram page for hughhendryofficial
I'm indebted to Angus for expanding my library of nonsense terms; I feared it was running empty from overuse...but now I'm ready to cast off again into a world of new adventures. I'm a narrative warrior. Yes, my PLAN A's are often wrong...
This week we have a Shared Confession on YouTube and the podcast platforms.Former macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry (me...), is joined by Dr. Angus Fletcher (Phd, Yale), a neuroscientist and professor of Shakespeare and all round really smart and entertaining dude
Angus rocks ! His latest book, Creative Thinking, was written especially for US special operatives engaging with live risk. We discuss the carry over principals for all wannabe hedge fund investors. This is hedge fund bootcamp for narrative warriors.
Hmm...where was I ? Such a busy night. I did a fun video with the one-and-only @GeorgeGammon and now this...
Yeah, so it's not the 55 m empty housing units nor the end of China's mega trends, NO, it's the 93 million properties currently under construction !!! Now I don't care how Confucius super smart you are, that's a whopping problem. That's inter galactic. That's friggin bonkers
China's "real" housing demand is reckoned to be 7 m units p.a. Put another way, China is presently constructing 20x the no. of homes that will be necessary for 2030...How do you like them cliches..?
Ok its Friday and I got another YouTube podcast ready to publish with @ToStRo
@ToStRo wrote a brilliant thought piece on China. I'm going to give you the punk rock version but you should tap him up for the original; its really good.
I managed to shoot a new chat with @ToStRo using what many may assume was a potato for my photo lens. The audio is ok but the 240 pixelation is torturous. And its filmed in my temporary accommodation on my construction site with no running water or a/c.
It doesn't look good. I was going to walk away and not publish it on Youtube. Truth be told, this video is uncomfortable. My lifestyle is presently uncomfortable. The way I dress is hmm...let's just say I don't look good. I'm not diss'ing you. I'm trying to show you the future
That's what the future looks like. Its not all gift wrapped, clean and ready to be delivered into your inbox. Rather, its challenging and uncomfortable; few are willing to embrace it. The hard truth is that the future can be ugly...our future almost certainly is gonna be ugly
Someone asked me about fiscal conservatism being a boon for GBP? Makes me think of the DJ refrain, You gave me a cassette ?? We don't play cassettes no more baby...let me explain. But first we got to behold the v long term chart of Sterling v the $
Little good comes from applying pro cyclical policies in a silent depression. Imo GBP and fiscal conservatism -real or fancied - just downright boring - the GBP level is tantalising - it took a real beating - but currencies don't have value, just levels...