The Kobayashi Test

Risk assets are on a tear
Sure, there's a pullback
But the huge global carry from borrowing depreciating yen and buying US assets is in its ascendancy
The Fed is trapped by US growth
Ignore the aberration of today
The fiscal spend is baked in
It's a known entity that will underwrite US GDP into 2027 High US rates flood capital markets with the world's speculative capital
Sends asset prices to the stratosphere
The rest of the world (RoW) needs lower rates
ECB cuts will accentuate the draw into US markets
Inflate risk asset prices higher even more

So good was this FT piece that I set about re writing it, acid cap style



It is very significant that this story is reaching a wider circulation of understanding

I hear the echoes of history everywhere, ominous they are...

So let's begin.
#GlobalTradeft.pressreader.com/article/281895… In the twisted ballet of global trade, where market tales weave like specters in the shadows, Keynes glimpsed the riddle we face. Back in 44 at Bretton Woods, he rallied for a global trading realm aimed at regulating against persistent imbalances, but what we got is a far cry

1. Let's walk The Heisenberg waltz
Succumb to the hands of Werner in '27...
Quantum truths be told
A cosmic dance with there being no certainty in heaven...
Particles run wild
Darn particles run free, in the quantum ballet
Position and momentum, ha, a nebulous construct 2. Measure one, Five-to-One, lose the other
A cosmic trade, a cosmic fade, no one gets out alive
$ Yen, soon we'll surpass 151
A delicate trance where certainty will surely fade.
Mathematics and its fables, an equation of chance,
Where enigmas prance and parade...

1. Today (yesterday) was not an exit...

It was an unhinged carnival ride through the heart of the chaos to come.

A twisted financial odyssey where reality bleeds into delirium, where the edge of reason is so far, far away. 2. The LA sun dipped tonight into a cosmic tequila sunset, I saw it with my own eyes, your day had passed, but here, alone, the shadows danced with the ghosts of quasi-sanity.

Q: Zirp means inflation to the moon

A common mistake

The interest rate fallacy

Lets try and Jack Kerouac this...

https://twitter.com/1337_FAFO/status/1654572053872222208

Central bankers don't have control over interest rates

I know, crazy right ?

You all associate high interest rates with tight monetary policies and zero with an abdication of the senses

You've been sold a lie

Repeat after me: easy money isn't cheap money

At last !!
A new Acid Capitalist Podcast...

With the indomitable, @Brad_Setser, a senior fellow, no less, of the Council of Foreign Relations
And boy !
Do I have things to get off my chest...
I will complete this tomorrow
So much to say, so little space Now what doesn't Brad know about foreign trade and the conduct of sovereign nations ?? What doesn't he know about how they conduct themselves in this merry-go-round of economic bedevilment ? He was the perfect and most generous host to titivate my curiosity.

I caught a head cold in the mountains of Utah and so I've been searching for something to do
I thought I'd sketch out the likely path of inflation and rates over the next 2 years
Thought I'd try gee you guys up History screams loudly at us, well me, at least...

It feels blindingly obvious that inflation is set to drop precipitously and compel mes souries chauves to cut rates drastically.

Obvious, that is, to me...🙃

OK, I’m encamped in my favourite London establishment; trop débauché to discuss right now. Anyway, Tuesday is the night of legends. Greyscale ? The cultural bias is more rewarding. The antagonism, the disdain, the screams of the butterflies, the profit. Of course, it may half first, but it’s safer than most risk assets today imo 🙄

Tombstone Shoutout

I’m on The Bloomberg today at 15h40 London

Should be fun...

Some updates

@ToStRo kindly charted that portfolio of mine. Here’s what it looks like. Here's the back test on my Boom Box

You know that old saw

https://twitter.com/arbitraderinc/status/1626434084988923906

If you gotta ask…

I thought I’d stop sending silly pictures on my Gram for a while.
Maybe a few hours
Hmm…define silly?
instagram.com/stories/hughhe…
Anyway, let's see what I've got in the tank
A lot of people want to know what this game's all about
I'm not the Oracle
But I'll reveal some inclinations I was on The Bloomberg last week
I repeated my mantra that I prefer not to own stocks right now
But why ??
Perhaps it's all about my gravity sensors.
Let me explain...

New podcast time. Guests are a potpourri, a crapshoot, a stab in the dark. It's like when I managed money. We would invite people to the office to go head-to-toe with me, shake me from my indulgencies. This week I spent some time with @BickerinBrattle and boy did we bicker... And yes, ridiculous clickbait for the algo once more, why not ? Certainly not my thinking but George happens to believe it's the bare minimum. I really tried with him but I couldn't make headway, nor come close to comprehending his thought pathways. Maybe, that's my bag...😂😂😂

Hey 😘 does anyone use barchart.com ? This is not an advert, although they should really do the decent thing and sponsor my generous musings on their service… Anyway, I want to set up a bar chart price template for the 20 and 40 month MAV with MAX price data

The system…listen I can hear quiet, gentle sounds, the money system is broken… I’ve lived long enough to see the humbling of money…

Merde, sitting now in Paris.

My tweets from the wifi starved St Maartin seem to have been sent erratically

I had written more but the plane was taking off...

Wanted to randomly comment on Meta before my pennies ran out Meta. You mean Facebook. Another change of name

Valeant really had to hang their head in shame

But Facebook ??

It makes me wonder what's going on

I mean it was a flag, a real red danger zone.

Don't you know, don't you wonder what's going on down under at Facebook ?

.

Instead, he went to Africa. Found zen and came back in the autumn to a chorus of soft landing nonsense

He took the path of legends.   

Called the consensus lame BS       And  shorted stocks / leveraged Ts et al

He truly was the Man after all  - course he was But the path of a short that’s descending, that’s confirming your conceit, it ain’t always straightforward .
Barchart.com

Look at Citigroup. I don’t know why but hear me out

Let’s discuss this preposterous click bait I suffered this week, I really did…I found myself unintentionally drowning in the emotional cesspit of shorting TSLA 😂

We conclude last week's slow bunny-pot boiler as not even a Luna eclipse can shake the belief of the chief disciple of the crypto faith and 4 yards inevitably becomes zero. If only he was better read...but rich man became poor man. Audacious trading without poetry

Is like wheeler dealing on a razor's edge

He thought he was the storm

That little could go wrong

If only he had known

The Acid Capitalist, is the rain

That Notions and Potions

Only add to his Fame

🚨 🚨🚨 The Collapse of Three Arrows Capital: Part I with Kyle Davies 🚨🚨🚨 This week we have a fallen angel or maybe that should be a broken arrow ?

Kyle Davies will forever be associated with flying too high and crashing to zero in the crypto catastrophe of 2022. He wanted it all and he wanted more.

Hey Guys, I’m presently lost in MIA - check out my adventures here instagram.com/hughhendryoffi… but it looks like you’re all digging this week’s show. Much gratitude for your comments Lacy graced us with his presence. Apologies to those who felt I was perhaps too agitated, too interfering, but left alone, you may as well read a teleprompter - the best way is a free flowing engagement - failing that, you just got to rip it up sometimes

This is happening OK, we are finally live from an old school location here in st barts. The premier is happening now here