Stuck working on Christmas Eve means that I have spotted this…

SAGE papers just released show one scenario being modelled is to bring in tough new restrictions next week that last until **March 28**.
That section from a new Spi-M statement released tonight.

The full modelling is done by Uni of Warwick, also published tonight.

It looked at Dec 28, Jan 1 as possible start dates for new Covid rules

…and Jan 15, Jan 28, March 28 possible end dates.
Not just a passing mention.

Here’s one of the breakdowns from Uni of Warwick modelling for the impact of tougher restrictions.

March 28 would = three months of tighter Covid rules.
The restrictions being modelled are a return to a version of ‘step 2’ on the original reopening roadmap.

That would be things like no indoor socialising, rule of six outdoors, no overnight stays outside your bubble.
Important cautionary context: this is just modelling to inform government scientists.

It’s understood this modelling hasn’t gone to government ministers and tough to see Cabinet approving.

But gives a sense of what’s being looked at by the scientists.
And with that, I’m off. Happy Christmas! 🎅🏽

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More from @benrileysmith

20 Dec
1/ Right. After a load of calls some clarity is emerging about what happened at Cabinet. In short: A lot of cab ministers made clear their concern about moving to tougher new restrictions now. Lots centred on the need for more data. With @christopherhope.…
2/ Cabinet gathering described by those in the room as discursive. A “wide range of viewpoints” shared. Unlike a lot of the cab meetings it does appear to have been a more general discussion about Omicron approach rather than a ‘here’s the plan, up or down’ meeting.
3/ Those arguing for caution on tougher restrictions can be split largely into two camps - cabinet ministers with economic briefs and those on the libertarian wing of the party / who are championing protection of freedoms.
Read 12 tweets
18 Dec
The minutes from Thursday’s SAGE meeting have just dropped and they include this startling line:

“In England it is almost certain that there are now hundreds of thousands of new Omicron infections per day.”
Also this from Sage:

“Without intervention beyond those measures already in place (‘Plan B’), modelling indicates a peak of at least 3,000 hospital admissions per day in England.”
Take these two together - hundreds of thousands of new infections a day and hospitalisations hitting 3k a day even with Plan B - and it’s hard not to see the Government going for tighter restrictions soon.
Read 4 tweets
8 Dec
Right. Specifics re Plan B have been bouncing round all day and still being finalised but here are some bits about where we are....
1/ A carve out on face masks is expected for hospitality sector, per two Gov sources. That's what went into system this morning. If so then no masks forced in pubs and restaurants.
2/ Has been debate all day about face masks coming back in classrooms but sounds like it WON'T happen. Again being finalised currently but one to watch
Read 9 tweets
8 Dec
Breaking: Covid-O meeting due today. Work from home and vaccine passports to be discussed. Go-ahead could be announced as early as today. Massive move if so.
Key cabinet ministers on Covid policy in Stephen Barclay understood to have attended the usual No10 morning meeting on Covid. (Sounds like that rather than a formal Quad meeting this AM).
A press conference today is being discussed among officials, with some predicting one will happen. PM was expected to make one this week at some point on Covid generally (initially due to be a focus on boosters)
Read 4 tweets
7 Dec
EXC: Cabinet discussed bringing in vaccine passports today.

Michael Gove and Nadine Dorries spoke in favour, per multiple sources.

Shows it’s being seriously considered to counter Omicron.…
Here’s our understanding of who said what on vaccine passports at today’s Cabinet meeting.

Dorries esp interesting - her sectors would be doing a lot of the checks if implemented (music venues, sports stadiums etc).
Officials are now working up plans for vaccine passports for ministers to consider next week.

That’s when a review of the rules will be taken before Christmas, with more hopefully known on Omicron by then.
Read 6 tweets
4 Nov

"I have today, after consultation with my family, and with much sadness decided to resign as the MP for North Shropshire. The last two years have been an indescribable nightmare for my family and me. My integrity, which I hold very dear... 1/8
"... has been repeatedly and publicly questioned. I maintain that I am totally innocent of what I have been accused of and I acted at all times in the interests of public health and safety. I, my family and those closest to me know the same... 2/8
"...I am unable to clear my name under the current system. Far, far worse than having my honesty questioned was, of course, the suicide of my beloved and wonderful wife, Rose. She was everything to my children and me. We miss her everyday and... 3/8
Read 8 tweets

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