A point that's rarely made is that the OBJECTIVE risk of COVID today - given vaccination (or natural immunity) and a basic variant like Omicron - would be below that of flu in a normal flu year, at least as re death and probably hospitalization.
(2) This is basically just a mathematical note: the risk of COVID (350K lost pre-vaccine in a bad year) was always pegged at 5x that of flu. The vaccines reduce risk of most-serious-outcomes by 80-90%.
The analysis is straight-up 5/5-10 = (X)?
The analysis is straight-up 5/5-10 = (X)?
*I meant to say "apparently mild." Not sure where "basic" came from.
(3) I'm bothering to say this - stats guy, not dr - because people seem to be WILDLY over-estimating this risk.
Still protect seniors, sure. But questions like "Can I go outside if vaccinated?" make no sense in the context of an ~1/5,000 risk for hale under-50s now cut by 85%.
Still protect seniors, sure. But questions like "Can I go outside if vaccinated?" make no sense in the context of an ~1/5,000 risk for hale under-50s now cut by 85%.
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