Alf Profile picture
Dec 24, 2021 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Our grandmas would be proud of us tonight.

Proper Southern Italian dishes, which also means f**k the look, it must taste good and portions big enough to feed an army.

All religiously handmade - no cheating.

Enjoy!

1/10
This is how you start: enough salami, ham and cheese to make you feel full…but you just started.

2/10
Ok grandma, we deviated a bit here.

Muffins with pancetta and melted cheese.

Smells amazing, tastes better.

3/10
We are still looking at entrees here!

Rustico with ricotta, parmigiano and spinach.

4/10
Grandma special ravioli.
Wife delivered big times here, look at these boys!

Fluffy, perfect consistency.
Filled with ricotta and parmesan, cooked for only few minutes and served…

5/10
…like this!

Zero care for the presentation, ravioli like it’s raining!

Fresh tomato sauce - yes, handmade too!

My family produces fresh tomato sauce every single August, no exceptions.

6/10
It’s time for queen parmigiana di melanzane!

Fried eggplants with mozzarella and tomato sauce.

Typical Neapolitan dish, absolutely delicious but very complicated to get it right!

7/10
Aaaand fish of course!

Deep-fried calamari with salt and lemon from the Amalfi Coast.

Also here, no cheating: clean a gazillion calamari, don’t buy them already cleaned and cut in rings.
Major difference in taste.

8/10
Clearly, King Homemade Sourdough Bread won’t miss the party here.

A look at the inside crumb, holes and all.

9/10
Panettone, pandoro, limoncello and coffee still to go.

1 full week to digest and 3 months diet to follow! :)

Happy holidays everybody!

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More from @MacroAlf

Apr 27
The odds of a Fed intervention to calm down the bond markets have increased substantially.

These policies would be akin to Yield Curve Control (YCC), something not seen in the US since the 1940s.

Thread.

1/
In April, the long-end of the bond market went ballistic for a few trading sessions.

30-year bond yields moved from 4.30% to 5.00% in 3 trading sessions.

Such a sell-off in only 3 trading sessions is very rare to witness:

2/ Image
On April 11th, Fed's Collins released an interview stating that the ''Fed is absolutely ready to intervene to stabilize markets''.

But why would the Fed get involved to stop a long-end sell-off if driven by government policies?

Well, because there was more than that...

3/
Read 11 tweets
Mar 19
Central Banks are slowly but surely diversifying away from the US Dollar into Gold.

This is one of the most interesting and potentially disruptive macro trends since the pandemic.

Thread

1/ Image
Foreign Central Banks have been sending a clear message to US policymakers: we intend to diversify away from the US Dollar.

The chart above shows the % of total foreign exchange reserves held in USD (blue), EUR (white) and gold (orange).

2/
Before you get too excited: please remember the chart uses market values for Gold and other currencies.

The recent, massive appreciation in Gold skewes the % for Gold on the upside - but even after correcting for that, there has been a clear move away from USD into Gold

3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 25
The market is signalling a big growth scare.

Should you be worried or fade it?

Thread

1/
First - how can we quantify the ''growth scare'' driver behind the current market dynamics?

A) Yields down
B) Equity sector rotation
C) Stock markets down despite yields down

Effectively, you can summarize this with the following...

2/
Markets are pushing yields down in a parallel fashion, expecting a slow Fed dovish reaction which won't be enough to restore growth.

So as yields fall, equity valuations don't get a boost but rather EPS expectations get revised down and people prefer defensive sectors.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 20
Fed officials are discussing ending Quantitative Tightening (QT) soon.

Let's discuss what this means for liquidity and markets.

Thread.

1/
First of all, some basics.

The Fed has been running QT for years now, in an attempt to reduce their balance sheet and drain reserves (''liquidity'') out of the system.

In short, here are the mechanics behind QT...

2/
Step 1: the Fed doesn’t reinvest maturing bonds and therefore destroys reserves - also known as ‘‘liquidity’’’

Step 2: the government needs to roll-over its funding, so banks now need to step up and absorb more of the newly issued securities

3/
Read 11 tweets
Feb 14
A deep understanding of the mechanics behind fiscal and monetary operations will be an important skill to navigate markets.

Here is a quick guide to help you master the topic.

Thread.
The table below can be used as a Cheat Sheet to quickly assess what impact a certain monetary/fiscal mix can have on markets and the economy.

Let's go through 2 quick examples: Image
1️⃣ QE + Fiscal Deficits

- Fiscal deficits inject new money for the private sector; when the government cuts your taxes or sends you a cheque, all of a sudden you have more spendable money!

- The Fed creates new reserves (QE) and absorb bond issuance, leaving banks free of that burden and with more ''liquidity'' (reserves)Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 9
Global bond markets are adjusting to Trump policies, the new Fed stance, and diverging economic fundamentals.

Let's look into it in today's thread.

1/
Starting from the US, this is what markets are implying for Fed Funds over the next 2 years.

Fed Funds are seen around 4% by December (~1.4 cuts), and the terminal rate sits around 3.95% with no more cuts in 2026-2027.

2/ Image
2-year inflation swaps have started to price some risk premium around tariffs.

At 2.72%, they have reached new highs:

3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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