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Alf

Dec 24, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

Our grandmas would be proud of us tonight.

Proper Southern Italian dishes, which also means f**k the look, it must taste good and portions big enough to feed an army.

All religiously handmade - no cheating.

Enjoy!

1/10

This is how you start: enough salami, ham and cheese to make you feel full…but you just started.

2/10

Ok grandma, we deviated a bit here.

Muffins with pancetta and melted cheese.

Smells amazing, tastes better.

3/10

We are still looking at entrees here!

Rustico with ricotta, parmigiano and spinach.

4/10

Grandma special ravioli.
Wife delivered big times here, look at these boys!

Fluffy, perfect consistency.
Filled with ricotta and parmesan, cooked for only few minutes and served…

5/10

…like this!

Zero care for the presentation, ravioli like it’s raining!

Fresh tomato sauce - yes, handmade too!

My family produces fresh tomato sauce every single August, no exceptions.

6/10

It’s time for queen parmigiana di melanzane!

Fried eggplants with mozzarella and tomato sauce.

Typical Neapolitan dish, absolutely delicious but very complicated to get it right!

7/10

Aaaand fish of course!

Deep-fried calamari with salt and lemon from the Amalfi Coast.

Also here, no cheating: clean a gazillion calamari, don’t buy them already cleaned and cut in rings.
Major difference in taste.

8/10

Clearly, King Homemade Sourdough Bread won’t miss the party here.

A look at the inside crumb, holes and all.

9/10

Panettone, pandoro, limoncello and coffee still to go.

1 full week to digest and 3 months diet to follow! :)

Happy holidays everybody!

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More from @MacroAlf

Alf

@MacroAlf

Jun 23

The Fed hiked rates above 5%, and yet the US economy hasn't broken yet.

Here is why.

Thread.

1/

High interest rates are supposed to break something because an overly indebted economy will have to service a mountain of debt at expensive rates and it will have less money for income and spending.

The problem is that people are looking at the ''wrong'' debt.

2/

Private sector debt levels and trends are by far more important than governmment debt

Contrary to the government, the private sector doesn't have the luxury to print money: if you get indebted to your eyeballs and you lose your ability to generate income, the pain is real

3/

Read 9 tweets

Alf

@MacroAlf

May 23

Liquidity is one of the most important drivers for markets.

But what is liquidity?
How do we measure and track it?

Thread.

1/

''Liquidity'' is the most abused word in macro and markets.

People use it to justify every market move, and yet they never explain what it ACTUALLY is.

And you often see misleading charts like this:

2/

So let me define what ''liquidity'' is.

What people call liquidity is nothing else than reserves held by commercial banks at the domestic Central Bank.

Or in short: bank reserves.

In red here on the Fed balance sheet, liabilities side:

3/

Read 13 tweets

Alf

@MacroAlf

May 16

One day, the US Dollar will lose its global reserve currency status.

And it's going to be a huge event.

But here is some hard truth about the De-Dollarization.

1/

The big question is ''when''.

And the answer is: most likely not within any tradable horizon!

Here is why an orderly de-dollarization is nothing more than a fairytale.

2/

In a globalized economic system you want to trade with as many partners as possible in a seamless way.

When Brazil exports its commodities and the trade happens in USD, Brazil accumulates USD – it might also use them to buy goods or services it needs from other countries

3/

Read 15 tweets

Alf

@MacroAlf

May 8

Macro fragilities are showing up outside the US.

Thread.

1/

High interest rates are supposed to break something because an overly indebted economy will have to service a mountain of debt at expensive rates and consumption will slow.

High rates were supposed to break the US because of government debt, but that's not how it works.

2/

Private debt levels instead reveal the true macro fragilities of economies facing higher interest rates.

The private sector doesn't have the luxury to print money: if you get indebted to your eyeballs and you lose your ability to generate income, the pain is real.

3/

Read 9 tweets

Alf

@MacroAlf

Apr 30

Ever wondered what's like to launch a macro hedge fund these days?

Here are the 7 key insights I got so far:

1/

A) If you think it will be hard, you are wrong: it will be harder

In the early steps of launching a hedge fund you are required to be the CEO, CIO, COO, head of investor relations, and so on.

It's really hard work.

2/

B) The package matters

Investors have upped their regulatory/infra requirements, and they understandbly demand you to be fully regulated/compliant/audited and have a solid trading infrastructure with a strong prime broker.

3/

Read 11 tweets

Alf

@MacroAlf

Apr 28

QT was announced in 2022 and it was supposed to remove excess reserves from the system.

Yet, the amount of liquidity removal so far has been ZERO and the Fed might announce a QT tapering next week!

Thread

1/

Fed’s bond holdings are down $1.6 trillion from their peak in mid 2022 (due to QT), yet bank reserves (aka ‘’liquidity’’) are virtually unchanged!

Blue: Fed bond holdings
Orange: bank reserves (aka liquidity)

Why is this happening?

2/

Normally, QT works by draining reserves from the system.

Here are 5 simple steps to understand how:

Step 1-2: the Fed doesn’t reinvest maturing bonds (1) from its QE portfolio (= performs passive QT) and therefore destroys reserves (2);

3/

Read 10 tweets

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