Thread by @ydeigin

🧵

Some people seem to think Omicron is a good thing — a mild variant that can bring this pandemic to an end. I disagree. Omicron is bad news.

1/8

First of all, many more people will die than would not have if Omicron didn’t appear. It will burn through existing immunity and infect huge numbers of people worldwide. Even at a 5x lower death rate, because of many more people getting it, it will cause many extra deaths.

2/8

Second, there is no guarantee Omicron can even rid us of Delta, let alone end the pandemic. On the contrary, its arrival is bad news: that a variant can arise that can escape existing immunity greatly diminishes the hope that vaccines/immunity can eventually eradicate SARS2.

3/8

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1470420197672509443

Before Omicron I thought existing immunity in a high enough % of people in most places will eventually cause Delta or its successors to peter out, as I was cautiously optimistic that variants with SUCH an ability to evade immunity could not arise from human circulation.

4/8

But now we see Omicron arise and reinfect everyone, which means so could the next variant and there is no end in sight. Also, there is no guarantee the next immunoevading variant won’t be deadlier than Omicron or even Delta.

5/8

So our only hope now is that Omicron first eradicates Delta and then burns through the world fast enough to give enough people immunity against itself, and does so before the next immunoevading variant arises.

6/8

That’s the hope, but there are at least two unknowns: how durable Omicron’s immunity is against its own reinfection (hopefully durable enough), and what’s the chance that the next variant arises that will escape ALL prior immunity (hopefully low).

7/8

Oh, and yet another unknown is the potential persistence of SARS2 in people who recover. More and more data emerge that SARS2 can remain active for months in people who show no symptoms. I really hope such dormant infections won’t re-emerge years later like shingles or FIP.

8/8

https://twitter.com/ydeigin/status/1473819745833132033

So Merry Christmas everyone! 😂