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Dec 25, 2021 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Insights on the Indian API, Formulation and CRAMS via a recent report from o3 Capital.

Tailwinds (China+1): 10% market share switch from China can double Indian API market.

Headwinds: Rising input costs in China due to power outage + freight hike. India has high dependency.
1/n
2/n
Indian API landscape

Scale, capacity, DMF filings, focus segments/ therapy areas and leading products.

#Divis #LaurusLabs #Granules #AartiDrugs #Solara
3/n
Growth strategies adopted by API companies

- Diversifying beyond API and CRAMS into Formulations, Biologics and Nutraceuticals.

- Laurus: Forward integrated into drug development via contracts from NATCO, Citron, Dr. Reddy + foray into new markets + new segments (Biologics)
4/n
Solara - Merger with Aurora L/S triples CRAMS revenue + customer & geographic diversification + new product (ARV)

Divis - Backward integration in key products like Naproxen (70% share) - lowest-cost producer. 1200 cr Capex.

Aarti Drugs - Forward integrated into Formulations
5/n
Understanding the scale and margin profile of key API companies.
6/n

Segment snapshot: CRAMS players command higher EBITDA margins than pure API companies (28% vs 15%) and thus higher valuations.
7/n

Valuation multiples metrics of all companies in API, Formulations and CRAMS
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We looked at every company with promoter buying for the period from April 1st to June 30th (Q1 FY23).

A thread.

Please like and retweet to help more investors

1/n Total 178 names - Part 1 of top 64 here 👇
2/n
Total 178 names - Part 2 of top 64 buying here 👇

Note: Top promoter selling at the end of the thread
3/n
Sectors that saw the highest level of promoter buying:
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Jul 2, 2022
As Philip Fisher said: Getting a reality check directly from people associated with co. gives us "much deeper" insights☝️v/s just reading reports & financials

Here's a🧵on Scuttlebutt insights on 6 key industries:
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1/n
Industry 1) FMCG
↪️ ITC is making new highs & now everyone’s fav stock🙂Wondering what changed? This:

Packaged food seg. doing well:
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2/n
@dmuthuk
↪️ Emami & Zydus wellness:

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3/n
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But someone expected prices to fall!

A🧵on how the 2.3x surge in Nickel prices was triggered by a short trade & not due to supply crunch
What happened exactly?

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We wonder why he held that view👀

1/n
This bet went horribly wrong when Russia banned commodity exports & Nickel prices started surging
To cover a big short position, someone had to buy equivalent long positions.

This created a short squeeze & Nickel reached $1lakh/ton & inturn led to notional loss of $8 Bn+!😱
2/n
Read 8 tweets

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