Okay so going to use this chart for my thesis leading into 2022. $BTC must reclaim 58k simply put. If not then = crab year of PvP trading. I guess my expectations next year are far lower than most people. The common theme is 22 > 21/20. I doubt it.
https://twitter.com/Pentosh1/status/1475481361268064257
2021 we clearly had our largest year of on-boarding ever. I don't think it would take a rocket scientist to guess that some of that growth slowed towards the later end of the year. There is a lot to contest with and we have to understand how and why we got here.
Covid, lockdowns, stimulus checks, and unprecedented printing was the most bullish thing that ever happened to this asset class. Covid, lockdowns, and stimulus checks while people are at home likely won't be repeated in 2022 but supply of cryptos has increased 10 fold
The higher prices go, the more daily inflow of captial is needed to support it, whether it's to support the 900 btc mined per day, or the thousands of high FDV project unlocks that will be coming in early to mid 2022 from early stage VC investments.
The other challenges we face are tapering, which will speed up in January as well as world wide rate hikes that have become slightly tightening the ease of access to money out there as well as some of the bad paper (see used autos that will be underwater) and it's effects here
In order to sustain growth we would need to onboard more users in a less friendly environment to absorb the massive coming supply in many projects. It doesn't mean that I am extremely bearish. Just cognizant of the fact that the winds are changing slightly.
I don't expect this to be immediate but I believe by Q2 it will be felt. And that it'd be wise to plan ahead a little and store more in reserves as opposed to being full risk on. It reminds me of a story of the ants and the cricket.
Where the ants worked all summer but stored away food, and the cricket danced away expecting it to never end. Everything in life has cycles, everything. Even crypto. Here is an example:
Over-saturation in the markets. There is always a new narrative and crypto is the largest musical chairs game in the world. Each thing is a new paradigm in which this time is different and each time the market contracts
https://twitter.com/Pentosh1/status/1427763347517235205?s=20
In the end if BTC can reclaim 58k as support then yes, I think full risk on would make sense. But for now I think traders who call a bottom every day and never post a bearish chart will lose their wealth as will the blind followers who follow them.
It's more likely to be a year of PvP markets where true traders win. But of course there will be outliers and narratives that do really well. I just think it will be more limited than the past two years of complete euphoria. If you get anything from this.
Anyways, I don't expect any 2-3 year bear or anything like that. Just 1-2 quarters of heavy chopsolidation. Think outside the box a little.
Other examples of when market was very offside:
April when everyone said it couldn't correct
April when everyone said it couldn't correct
https://twitter.com/Pentosh1/status/1383434464840208390?s=20
Again and same with CPI in november etc. Sometimes you have to look a little forward as opposed to everything in the moment
https://twitter.com/Pentosh1/status/1417907723946143751?s=20
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