Okay so going to use this chart for my thesis leading into 2022. $BTC must reclaim 58k simply put. If not then = crab year of PvP trading. I guess my expectations next year are far lower than most people. The common theme is 22 > 21/20. I doubt it.
2021 we clearly had our largest year of on-boarding ever. I don't think it would take a rocket scientist to guess that some of that growth slowed towards the later end of the year. There is a lot to contest with and we have to understand how and why we got here.
Covid, lockdowns, stimulus checks, and unprecedented printing was the most bullish thing that ever happened to this asset class. Covid, lockdowns, and stimulus checks while people are at home likely won't be repeated in 2022 but supply of cryptos has increased 10 fold
The higher prices go, the more daily inflow of captial is needed to support it, whether it's to support the 900 btc mined per day, or the thousands of high FDV project unlocks that will be coming in early to mid 2022 from early stage VC investments.
The other challenges we face are tapering, which will speed up in January as well as world wide rate hikes that have become slightly tightening the ease of access to money out there as well as some of the bad paper (see used autos that will be underwater) and it's effects here
In order to sustain growth we would need to onboard more users in a less friendly environment to absorb the massive coming supply in many projects. It doesn't mean that I am extremely bearish. Just cognizant of the fact that the winds are changing slightly.
I don't expect this to be immediate but I believe by Q2 it will be felt. And that it'd be wise to plan ahead a little and store more in reserves as opposed to being full risk on. It reminds me of a story of the ants and the cricket.
Where the ants worked all summer but stored away food, and the cricket danced away expecting it to never end. Everything in life has cycles, everything. Even crypto. Here is an example:
Over-saturation in the markets. There is always a new narrative and crypto is the largest musical chairs game in the world. Each thing is a new paradigm in which this time is different and each time the market contracts

In the end if BTC can reclaim 58k as support then yes, I think full risk on would make sense. But for now I think traders who call a bottom every day and never post a bearish chart will lose their wealth as will the blind followers who follow them.
It's more likely to be a year of PvP markets where true traders win. But of course there will be outliers and narratives that do really well. I just think it will be more limited than the past two years of complete euphoria. If you get anything from this.
Anyways, I don't expect any 2-3 year bear or anything like that. Just 1-2 quarters of heavy chopsolidation. Think outside the box a little.
Other examples of when market was very offside:

April when everyone said it couldn't correct
Again and same with CPI in november etc. Sometimes you have to look a little forward as opposed to everything in the moment

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More from @Pentosh1

25 Dec
GM Merry Christmas

After infiltrating the bulls at 46.3k they unknowingly welcome'd in the trojan horse into their city walls. A game of carefully planned deceit into the contested territories were bears could launch a surprise attack on $BTC late bullas. Can they defend 49.2? ImageImageImage
Bulls want to hold 49.2k.

Bears want to defend contested territory and willing to concede territory

Each side will push. I will be bera unless the above is reclaimed and scaling out through that area 😂 risk reward is there
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec
Oke. Let's make trading into a game:

Here's how I see it

Right now beras on offense. They take price down to 46k but there was a lot of resting liquidity there = stop price from moving. They begin to close shorts and buy some spot back

Bears become bulls short term like myself
They are willing to concede the ground in the middle bc pick up inventory at the lows. The stuff in the middle is where the little fish wrecked.
If truly bear then they don't want to give up the contested area bc it defines market structure. The area where they are willing to concede is the stops to force buying, and up into contested area to sell excess inventory

If bullish than that area becomes support. they buy flip
Read 4 tweets
22 Dec
A thread on memes and markets:

First $BTC bears are lulled into selling into passive bids with careful planning
And then boom! Price breaks out in a furry of market orders
What you thought was one thing, (bearish) was another (bullish)
Read 4 tweets
22 Dec
Beras simply won't live to tell the story

Do you think that when the soviets were at the gates of Berlin & the the west-front was storming through west-germany: They would be like : lol let's retrace back before going for the kill?

Coiled spring wound tight
Chart. Clean, multi year level with HH + HL compression into vol gap

Examples from the past:
Obviously went way further than expected

Read 5 tweets
17 Dec
See this thread. Super educational. Luck or not I've been fortunate enough to capture the meat of the macro swings up + down

As prev said I always make it into a game. The market always first gives you a warning something is off. Then it gives you 2 chances to get out
Here is how I try to gamify the market. Bc it is a game

If you are bullish and you are driving down the field but start to struggle it's shown on the chart as the market goes sideways. You finally have a breakout but price quickly reverses. The other team likely has the ball
When price quickly travels through the range and goes back into the previous range. You are now on defense. Now they are driving and you have to know your defense points. It's a game of momentum after all. You have a chance to capture the moves each direction.
Read 4 tweets
15 Dec
Anyways off for real now. Break time

If everyone is short/flat makes it pretty hard for the market to move down. Remember, price moves down until it finds liquidity, same with up. Price moved forcing participants to act. If it was going to sell off it would have b4 fomc

Read 4 tweets

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