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@Pentosh1
#Bitcoin, Not a financial advisor, No paid group, DM's are scams + instagram = scam. team at @buildonbeam & @sophon
39 subscribers
Jul 4, 2023 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
As promised a thread to help you mentally navigate the markets. Since most people are familiar with games and I strongly believe in gamifying markets we will approach it that way. https://t.co/3pKkVin9dI
Offense, vs defense. In any sport, war or game, when you over commit to one side you leave the other open and vulnerable. Whether it be hockey, basketball, football or a game of risk. If you get too aggressive you leave yourself open to a counter attack.
Jun 4, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Some thoughts about surviving and time.

There's often 2+ years of nothing after a peak except mass casualties.

One thing you have to understand in crypto is that the periods of up only, are much much shorter than periods of market trending down or sideways. Look for yourself. Image What follows is hacks, exploits, depegs, custodians taking your money. No matter how well you manage things or try to protect yourself. There's always trouble lurking. People are desperate.
Mar 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I think it's possible that the fed has over tightened and there was a huge lag due to being the fastest pace in history. But the issue was a pivot only came with things breaking. Why cut/QE when everything is functioning fine. We never had time to see effects of those hikes They've likely gone too far and are about to go further short term. The only way out was to crush things to get it under control before re-inflating the bubble. So what does that look like?
Mar 10, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Market has been calling for a pivot for over a year. I've always been anti-pivot bc one wasn't needed

However

Seeing things like we saw in banking today is concerning. *IF* things break. *THEN* you just have to become turbo bullish imo bc that will be your pivot point If things implode it'll be a quick, violent move down followed by insta QE

But first. Things must break. We are seeing the effects of rates take their toll finally, and there was a delay in that effect due to the rapid pace.
Mar 9, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I bought some spot $BTC

This isn't a bottom call. There are a lot of moving parts right now globally. I don't know where the bottom is. I've been sitting on my hands mostly / doing scuba diving the past weeks

Feel it can wick to 19.7k short term. Image I've said this over and over but I don't think this is a trend year, but more of a sideways year (for accumulation and compounding so that's how I'm treating it.
Feb 17, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
$RLB is interesting to me. It's up bigly. Very hot topic right now. I'm not one to gamble or use leverage so the platform itself is of no interest to me. Hence why no ref-link even though it'd be lucrative

I like to own things people use though Seeing the popularity of it amongst CT, especially on the more degenerate side (gainzy lol), and twitch streams I think says a lot. Gambling online will only continue to grow in popularity. More so now that it's been legalized. It's one of the most rapidly growing spaces
Feb 13, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Not in a huge rush yet, tomorrow is the big day after all. And not in a rush to say yearly high is in yet either. Although I do think this is just the same money sloshing around. It should be slightly concerning how quickly narratives change and they the duration is so short To me it's much like 2018-2019 musical chairs. One narrative plays but the music goes a little faster each time and someone is always left without a chair. In the end we trade what we are given. But it's important to understand the environment and trade accordingly
Feb 12, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
$SYN

Before I got to bed. Thought I'd share how I'm looking to play it. Most important levels marked TA wise

FA wise: I believe 3 or so catalysts will come in the next 1-6 weeks to propel it revolving around Synchain/dApps update:

First target hit and took off about 15%

Leaving the rest open and may add some back if we get lower
Feb 11, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"If [redacted] becomes THE dominant [redacted] and [redacted] that's probably the most valuable piece of crypto infrastructure outside of ETH"

Curious about what will launch on it. Whatever "it" is

I'll take "things that are undervalued" for $1.50-3 please. Fair price So many narratives that can be built on top of this, dApps, + token utility. Of course the narrative may not show up for weeks, or even a couple months and by then. Perhaps it will have found value. When unknowns eventually become knowns. Again, whatever "it" is
Dec 31, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
This isn’t a bold prediction this year. It’s just a guess based on probabilities from known information. Last years end of year topics played out well it doesn’t mean this years will. Muted growth from higher rates from longer. Rates haven’t been high enough for long enough to work their magic. Higher yields elsewhere will lead to less allocation in crypto / stonks. 4-5% risk free = a shift in behavior and adapting market
Dec 18, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I remember in my first bear market. I hated bears so much. Just seeing their posts would irritate me. I didn’t understand why they were shorting or selling. And I’d guess a lot of people feel or felt that way this year. Which is 100% a natural thing to feel.
Dec 9, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
It's been a tough year mentally tbh. I was or what I felt super prepared for this year. People kind of shun "fear" but there is a reason we experience fear as humans. Bc it can protect us. If we feared nothing, we probably wouldn't live long. The fear from 2018 saved me in 2022 I made a ton of mistakes this year that essentially lead to no growth and preservation. I was sizing up until March when I round tripped an 8m profit into a loss in April whilst traveling. Then I essentially reduced by 90% and lately even more.
Dec 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I don’t have a degree in economics but still outperformed most of those that do. Critical thinking is important. A degree doesn’t matter if you don’t know how to apply what you learn. Economists can rarely agree as it is. Here are some good threads / articles to educate yourself I certainly don’t know everything. This year was a way to journal my thoughts and hopefully educate those who wanted it to some degree. None of it was hindsight I still know less than I think I know and have a lot to learn.
Dec 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
In a chat I was in. Someone asked where the money has gone in crypto. There is an unfortunate reality that many crypto people don't talk about bc of their beliefs in a somewhat utopian fantasy. Your favorite maxi likely pays his bills with fiat. Your favorite influencers buy 300k watches and cars with money they take out of the crypto system. While telling you to hodl and only buy dips/. Shitcoins fracture liquidity. Binance recently bought 500m into Twitter. That is all money that comes in and then leaves.
Nov 30, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Most of you will recall most of the year that everyone kept saying rate hikes were priced in before this thread (read it). Come to find out. They weren't. They are priced in now in terms of markets but not effects. A little more patience imo will be rewarded. Why? Well the reality is the rate of change on hikes was so quick that we didn't get to see the effects of it. It is somewhat like a sonic boom. Depending on the aircraft's altitude, sonic booms reach the ground two to 60 seconds after flyover. There is a lag
Nov 27, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
CCP is going to fail, here's how China will collapse in 10 days 1/58 First thing you need to know. China is a country
Nov 19, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1) While the $BTC bottom may be close, the time aspect of it is unlikely to be close

Time is the most valuable asset we have

Probabilities say we likely spend a lot of it sideways 2) Where are we in the cycle? There is a lot of history outside of US markets of stagnation globally.

Nov 8, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Now that we are starting to see first signs of job losses and thus some of our downstream effects. We have to think about POTENTIAL risks. If people lose their jobs (and they will) they sell the most liquid assets first. Something where you can just click a red button Image And then transfer to your bank. Stocks / crypto

So as this happens, and profits go down, spending goes down, and eventual defaults take place. That is one way how you get your big capitulation in this environment. When thinking of risk moving forward. This is one to think about
Nov 4, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
A few small thoughts on this. I can feel the excitement in the air over "the pause" Fed will only hike 2-3x more! A year ago most thought the fed would never even hike .50bps. It was "impossible"

Now we are sitting at 4% with potential for 5%+ It's a dangerous thought to be convinced the bottom is in again. Especially when we haven't seen the effects of higher for longer. The velocity of the rates is insane but we still have to see people credit card expenses go up, auto loans, home loans, refinancing
Oct 28, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
random thoughts. I don't care if Fed hikes .50-.75. Most people are late to that trade. 0.00 to .75 is a MUCH bigger move velocity wise than 3.25 to 4.00. We are on the back end of hikes. When they pause. What will matter is higher rates for longer. market can rally. it doesn't mean they can sustain

higher rates for longer over time will do the work. we haven't yet seen the impact of high rates bc it happened so quick

a lot of companies at some point will be forced to refinance debt

etc etc
Oct 26, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
$BTC + $ETH update
Killed it

fully closed. Will wait for new setups ImageImageImage $BTC

First resistance resisting for now

Haven't taken any new trades yet.

First areas of support 20.4k (will scalp this)

Must hold 20k on daily level Image