#Bitcoin, Meme account, not a financial advisor, No paid groups, DM's are scams. lover of @meritcircle_io.
19 added to My Authors
May 9 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I started in the #Bitcoin about 7 months ago. Now did I make some mistakes by taking my son's tuition and buying the all time high at 64k? Yes absolutely I realized it was a mistake.
But I'm making up for lost time now through shorting. You see there is this thing called shorting. Everyone is doing it and we're all getting rich. Basically it's like buying but in reverse.
Apr 25 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
$BTC spoke a lot about the y.o unfortunately on HTF market couldn't flip it to support for the rally. However we got 3 great longs from 36-39k
Not a lot to update bc these things take time to play out on the macro. Hence lack of updates, back to value imo
Some threads below:
If you want to improve for next cycle, then you need to understand the how and why things may have happened
One thing that is important to remember, nobody knows the severity or duration of bear markets like this. Personally I take a lot less trades and look for more extremes for well timed strikes. Believe in the last 4 months shared 3x long attempts sub 40k and a few scalps.
It's a great time to learn patience, especially if you're a spot trader otherwise the market will part you with your money. And capital preservation is incredibly important in these times. Once you learn you don't have to be in every trade and capture every move things change
Apr 19 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
I don't write this types of threads often. The last one I did was on Solana before it went batshit for 3 months.
Yes my macro views and concerns still remain. But for now I look further down the road.
The Bull Case for NEAR and Aurora, ft. NearPad / $PAD and $Rose on Aurora
Near traction has been growing rapidly since the end of the Holiday season this past year. With multiple rounds of fundraising and multiple 9 figure incentive programs, the stage is being set for a massive ecosystem boom over the next many months.
Mar 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I started in the #Bitcoin about 7 months ago. Now did I make some mistakes by taking my son's tuition and buying the all time high at 69k? Yes absolutely I realized it was a mistake. But I'm making up for lost time now through shorting.
You see there is this thing called shorting. Everyone is doing it and we're all getting rich. Basically it's like buying but in reverse. This way you can make up for lost time since you didn't buy bitcoin early like others.
Mar 3 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Today, I macro-larp once again. Keep in mind, it's just my opinion and an uneducated one at that. No school, no prev tradfi work.
Of course the starting point should be right after the CPI print in Nov that was the inflationary shot heard around the world
Last update on thread:
$BTC and alts rejected and formed LH's as a whole, and lost the HL it attempted to form. I too made a mistake luckily only partial. A thought on how I trade that helps me below 👇
I wrote this in reply to someone else earlier but realize most people didn't get a chance to read it. But markets likely heading for recession
An inversion almost always means recession. The degree and length is hard to say.
With QE in place there’s nowhere to go. Fed can’t lower rates or inject more to save the economy. So the likely hood of escaping is not the same. If we enter recession before they even raise rates it will persist
Feb 11 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Take what I say with a grain of salt bc like everyone in crypto I am a victim of the 𝘿𝙪𝙣𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜-𝙆𝙧𝙪𝙜𝙚𝙧 𝙚𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩. But who isn't. Difference is a little self awareness
Now, back to larping about being a macro expert. A few thoughts I've shared but in one place
Go back 3 months and CT said
"Raising rates is impossible"
"Tapering is impossible"
Well, now they are possible but the cope instead is "priced in"
Let's talk about why it's not priced in among other things. Devils advocate if you will.
Feb 10 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I've been pretty vocal about the macro the last months and 8/10 times have done a pretty good job. Even went giga long w/ the 500 $BTC buy at 36-37k and went completely flat this W. Many times in this last year I've gone against the crowd and it's worked. Nothing here changed
It's very possible I am wrong as well, that's the nature of the game. And if so I will take my loss as planned. It is what it is. In the last week I hit new ath's in both BTC and USD (prior to derisk below here)
I still view March as a potentially difficult time in markets
Feb 7 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Some thoughts going into March. CPI print expectations are 7.3% this Thursday. Hearing it could come in as high as 7.8-7.9%. Highest in 40 years
Oil is up 20% to start the year, food is also skyrocketing this quarter = higher cost of goods
The average consumer is hit hardest
Now the response I've seen from every fund since Nov before they got absolutely and utterly abused in this downtrend was that "It's priced in". Was it? No
I ask you to think a little critically. If we are here as a result of QE, why wasn't QE priced in?
Jan 26 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Everyone interprets things differently. Here are my thoughts and things to consider. Topics: Biden/Powell/Private $
Biden said prices too high. Keep in mind most dem constituents are Working class, and lower middle class etc. High inflation = bad. That’s their largest voter base
QE will complete in March, and it also sounds like first rate hike in March. Touch on this later
Powell also said asset prices too elevated
In the past hikes were 25 BPS. He left this open this time to higher
Said inflation likely will stay elevated
Expects slowed growth
Jan 25 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 So many people think $btc is dead
Crypto has always been volatile. Up or down = opportunities
I have 0 doubt #Bitcoin will make new ath’s in the future. While I don’t expect it in the next 3-6 months
It will only get more scarce over time. Larger players/nations will enter
This is now my 5th year of trading BTC. I’ve seen it fall 80%+ and 50%+ on multiple occasions. Seen it banned by multiple countries.
I think a lot of big players will continue to enter the space especially on the mining side. And of course more countries to adopt it
Jan 13 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
1/9 I teased this before, but I would like to formally announce that as of January 1st I will be dedicating a large portion of my time to the success of the @MeritCircle_IO DAO as the Head of Partnerships!
What will I do, and what will change?
2/9 Over the years of being active in the industry, I have gained a large and unique network consisting of some of the brightest minds.
Connecting the dots, thus the perfect parties with @MeritCircle_IO will bring constant value to the DAO, and all other parties involved
Jan 11 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
I want to discuss some exciting changes in regards to the tokenomics on $MC but as with anything. Good things take time. Some of the changes include token burns, buybacks, and in the future strategic OTC lockups creating a supply sink so tokens don't hit the open market
Recently the MIP-7 DAO proposal passed that makes changes to realized gains. Some of those changes are as follows:
20% of proceeds are sent back to the USDC treasury
5% will be sent back as $ETH and $WBTC
Jan 11 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
So here’s my thoughts and you can basically use this as your thesis inside the downtrend repeating
The market mostly moves when people are wrong. Bc they are forced buyers and sellers. Here are examples of what happens.
Here was expecting a fake out to the downside where people get caught offsides selling the lows
Now most people had invalidations at like 51-53k for where they would buy back but really it should've been 58k-60.7k technically
Jan 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
While I've written a lot about macro bear stuff as of late. One thing I always try to remember is "Being a bear is tough" Downside is limited and upside is. Well. Unlimited. So what is the bullish case?
1st @nayibbukele#Bitcoin bond imo must be over-subscribed
In the event that happens I believe we will see 2 other countries follow suit from South America on the path of adoption. Yes, they will be small
𝐺𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦, 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑠𝑢𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑙𝑦
Like a set of domino's and when talking years down the road. I think it starts here
Jan 7 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
$BTC highest probability outcome imo
Be lucky to get a 58k-60k short attempt and the best invalidation on the macro since it's as close as possible
See HTF areas of larger range
+ 58k-60.7k full bull market
For now market imo will seek another LH maybe 49-53k
Jan 6 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I think it’s wise on significant bounces to consider removing a good amount of your capital from the market Especially if 1. You’ve made it 2. Can’t afford to lose it
As stated I think this year is a year people lose most if not all for many reasons laid out.
In 2018 I made the mistake many of you have already made or are making. And have mostly been risk off as opposed to on the past months. I personally feel and have laid out the reasons why I believe the markets have a lot more to bleed out as a whole
Jan 5 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Now is a good time for a little education imo. How many fiat currencies have survived the test of time? Zero. A lot of similarities today with how the Roman Empire fell. But also imo the same thing that happens in our market. DILUTION 👇
The same way NFT’s fell apart, ICO’, etc in this market often have the same catalyst. Over-saturation of projects eventually exceed demand and supply dominates = people leave and volume drop