CDC's estimate for the prevalence of Omicron last week dropped significantly from 73.2% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 34-94.9% down to 22.5% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 15.4-31.5%.
12/25 estimate is 58.6% with a 95% prediction interval of 41.5-74%.
12/25 estimate is 58.6% with a 95% prediction interval of 41.5-74%.
https://twitter.com/ozair_naqvi/status/1473464231190315008
Statistics are hard and I know health media can do a better job communicating the uncertainty of these projections.
Would love to get some perspective from @cmyeaton @mlipsitch on how they think about this.
Would love to get some perspective from @cmyeaton @mlipsitch on how they think about this.
CDC just responded to my initial inquiry:
"There was a wide predictive interval posted in last week’s chart, in part because of the speed at which Omicron was increasing. We had more data come in from that timeframe and there was a reduced proportion of Omicron."
"There was a wide predictive interval posted in last week’s chart, in part because of the speed at which Omicron was increasing. We had more data come in from that timeframe and there was a reduced proportion of Omicron."
I've followed up with a few questions, I wonder if the preference for sequencing s-gene dropouts (labs were looking for the first cases of Omicron in the U.S.) made the Nowcast modeling more challenging initially.
CDC didn't respond to my follow up questions, but here's the story: politico.com/news/2021/12/2…
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