"We've all been doing public investing for decades."
Altos encourages employees to invest their own accounts to practice and constantly learn.
"You get to know these companies over many years and decades and you see these teams. ...
Once in a while something strange happens, whether
it's 2008 or the dotcom crash, that give you this amazing gift. And if you have a mental database of various companies, about different models and teams that you can really get to know."
The difference of investing vs. the business of investing
"Everybody wants Bernie Madoff without the fraud"
LPs want steady returns, repeatability, predictability, a scalable process, a "deal machine." It's "paint by the numbers vs. "painting a masterpiece."
Nothing wrong with that but it's important to understand how it can drive decisions (for example selling stock to show realized gains).
Why Twitter is great:
"The most valuable things is just meeting certain people and having offline conversations. Many of them are not institutions, they're individual investors."
"As an individual you have a lot of advantages over institutions. You could be extremely concentrated, long-term oriented, stomach a lot of volatility if you can handle your own emotions."
"I would learn more from those guys than I would learn from any VC or institutional manager. A fund manager's imperative is to protect the fund management business, not to get the best returns.
I'd like to talk to those people who care about only generating great returns."
Looking for hedgehog entrepreneurs who have found their mission (Walton, Buffett).
"We have a bias towards certain entrepreneurs, hedgehog vs. the fox. Nothing wrong with foxes and amazing serial entrepreneurs. They will make money over and over again."
"I call the great serial entrepreneurs amazing people who have not yet found their true life's calling."
"At this point in our lives, we're not looking for yet another deal. Show me an opportunity to build something really special with special people that have their mission."
Long-term perspective:
"I think about venture as the world's greatest discovery mechanism. Try to learn about businesses and people and every once in a while we uncover a very interesting opportunity and we'll develop that. ...
It's not about you caught this lightning in a bottle and now you're rich. Doesn't happen that way. You discover the opportunity, now you've got the next 10-20 year to figure out what to do with it. And if you don't show up for the next 10-20 years you're not gonna get paid big."
Culture and scale.
"Much harder to do a turnaround than to build it right from the beginning."
"Almost every single startup has a great culture in the beginning. Every little company has a great culture just to survive that infant mortality phase.
There's no place to hide, everybody is contributing and knows what is going on. But not every great culture at every little company turns out to be great as they grow. You have to pay a serious amount of attention."
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-Terrified because who knows if it's going to work out (tbd).
I sent my first email in August 2020 and as of today I have 6,689 free subscribers.🙏
... as well as 392 paid subscribers for annualized revenue of ~$45,000.
I hate that this creates mixed feelings. But it does.
I'm grateful for every single subscriber. But it's not sustainable. Yet.
And, compared to many others, it's small.🤏
“Envy is a really stupid sin because it’s the only one you could never possibly have any fun at. There’s a lot of pain and no fun. Why would you want to get on that trolley?” Charlie Munger
"Comparison is the thief of joy.” Theodore Roosevelt
"...the neglected but critical follow-on investment decisions.
When one of our companies starts to become a compounding machine, we may commit a lot more money as well as time to let the compounding make a difference. altos.vc/blog/howdoyouk…
We have committed 5 to 10x, and, in a couple of cases, more than 100x our initial investment (rather than 0.6x)."
"For follow-on investments, there will be more business metrics and operating history to analyze. However, paradoxically, we’ve learned that the people and our relationship with them may end up being the most important factor, even at the later stages."
"Factors that don't correlate much... age, gender, parenthood, intelligence, attractiveness, money (above the poverty line)
Factors that correlate strongly include: genetics, love and relationship satisfaction, work satisfaction" lesswrong.com/posts/ZbgCx2nt…
"Extroversion is among the best predictors of happiness, as are conscientiousness, agreeableness, self-esteem, and optimism."
Happiness is subjective and relative. Happiness is not determined by objective factors, but by how you feel about them
"Flow and mindfulness
being "lost in the moment" may provide some of your happiest moments ... when you're not in flow, taking a step outside the moment and practicing "mindfulness" - that is, paying attention - can reduce chronic pain and depression, reduce stress and anxiety"
The BCB hired “sifu,” a Cantonese term that loosely translates to “masters” but corresponds in practice to consultants. “Whenever they wanted to get into a new area, a new market, a new trade, they would hire someone to teach them how to get it done,”
To learn the credit card business, they hired manufacturers. For the drug trade, they hired chemists. They brought an industrial approach to organized crime. And Tse would become their greatest innovator.
"By 2020, Shein’s sales had risen to $10 billion, a 250% jump from the year before. In June, the company accounted for 28% of all fast fashion sales in the US — almost as much as both H&M and Zara combined" restofworld.org/2021/how-shein…
"For years, European brands like Zara and H&M have embodied fast fashion ... Shein isn’t chasing runway trends — rather, it often knocks off items seen on TikTok and Instagram, where hype cycles move significantly faster.
... Whereas Zara typically asks manufacturers to turn around minimum orders of 2,000 items in 30 days, Shein asks for as few as 100 products in as little as 10 days. “They want factories to be much more nimble,” said Lu"
Thought-provoking by @paragkhanna and @balajis
"Rather than a unipolar Pax Americana or a bipolar “New Cold War,” the future will be a decentralized race to the top as countries, cities, companies, and communities compete to attract talent and capital."
"the United States is experiencing a relative decline in strength across economic and military axes. Its global role is more a function of its victories in 1945 and 1991 than its capabilities in 2021."
"Traditional geopolitics ... concerns itself with the eternal location of territorial powers.
the internet is adding a new dimension to this. It is not merely a passive data layer ... but a new kind of geography comparable in scope to the physical world."