2021 left me grateful, excited, and terrified.

-Grateful because I got to write.

-Excited because I'm making money with it.

-Terrified because who knows if it's going to work out (tbd).

I sent my first email in August 2020 and as of today I have 6,689 free subscribers.🙏
... as well as 392 paid subscribers for annualized revenue of ~$45,000.

I hate that this creates mixed feelings. But it does.

I'm grateful for every single subscriber. But it's not sustainable. Yet.

And, compared to many others, it's small.🤏
“Envy is a really stupid sin because it’s the only one you could never possibly have any fun at. There’s a lot of pain and no fun. Why would you want to get on that trolley?” Charlie Munger

"Comparison is the thief of joy.” Theodore Roosevelt
It's true. Envy poisons the heart and mind. It diminishes the gratitude and appreciation.

But it's there.

I’ve found that trying to hide or deny what I don’t like about myself doesn’t make it go away. It just leaves me feeling ashamed and the undesirable feeling bottled up.
I do want to let go of the feeling.

Writing helps me take an honest look at myself, warts and all. And sharing it feels like a necessary act of acceptance: “This too is true. I don’t like it. I hope I can change it. But right now it is true and I accept myself with this flaw.”
I feel some pride writing about these moments of weakness. I hope it helps my readers avoid the same mistakes. Or, by showing them they're not alone, soften the blow of their inner critic.
Because of this element of self expression I haven’t treated the newsletter like a job or a business. It's much more than that to me.

This also means I haven't implemented some of the advice and learnings I picked up along the way. But perhaps you find some of them helpful.
“All successful newsletters are alike, but every unsuccessful one is unsuccessful in its own way.” Leo Tolstoy, probably, if he was a substack writer.

There's much to learn from other newsletters. Study those that got big recently, in a similar competitive environment.
They all found something they're uniquely good at and interested in. This doesn't have to be unique knowledge. It can be synthesis, humor, format, anything that is a unique angle and voice. And they've mastered at least one channel to reach their audience.
Other patterns:

-Develop a clear value proposition.

-Growth is unpredictable but often a step-function and social.

-Consistency and frequency are good, all else equal.

-If you can, pick a great market. (But I don't think you can choose what you’re interested in.)
Figure out what you're uniquely good at. Your topic should naturally interest you.

It's not always going to be fun but there has to be a baseline of curiosity or someone more passionate will do a better job. (I worry about this aaaall the time.)
Turn that into a product people want. Then you just have to keep at it and tell everyone about it😉
My writing revolves around investing and the inner game (often they intersect). It's a journey and changes its shape as I learn more about the world and myself.

I don't see why it wouldn't be relevant to an audience 10x at large. But perhaps I'm biased 😇
Right now, I can’t see further ahead than a few months. Much like a walk near the foggy Neckar river this past week, the path reveals itself with every step. My task is to keep moving and trust that I’m going in the right direction.

Full year-end piece👇
neckar.substack.com/p/going-pro-a-…
I want to thank everyone whose advice, ideas, support, feedback, and friendship enriched my life this year. And thank you to everyone who commented or emailed about my work. You all make it worthwhile.❤

I know I'm going to forget tons of people, please don't be mad!

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More from @NeckarValue

30 Dec
This is Henry Ellenbogen who managed the massive T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund.

E. picked growth and compounder stocks, expanded into venture, beat the market, then left to found Durable Capital.

Here's what I learned from his letters about his playbook for "durable growth": ImageImage
"Investing in small-cap growth stocks is an immensely creative process, where creativity and success are defined by the ability to see what others—most market participants—don’t see."
Ellenbogen moved fast: at 19 years a brief stint as Chief of Staff to Rep. Peter Deutsch (he was called "boy wonder of Capitol Hill"). Harvard JD/MBA, then joined T Rowe in 2001 to cover media and internet.

PM of Media and Telecom Fund 2004-09. New Horizons fund 2010-19. Image
Read 25 tweets
28 Dec
Averaging up in winners.

"...the neglected but critical follow-on investment decisions.

When one of our companies starts to become a compounding machine, we may commit a lot more money as well as time to let the compounding make a difference.
altos.vc/blog/howdoyouk…
We have committed 5 to 10x, and, in a couple of cases, more than 100x our initial investment (rather than 0.6x)."
"For follow-on investments, there will be more business metrics and operating history to analyze. However, paradoxically, we’ve learned that the people and our relationship with them may end up being the most important factor, even at the later stages."
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec
"How to Be Happy"

"Factors that don't correlate much... age, gender, parenthood, intelligence, attractiveness, money (above the poverty line)

Factors that correlate strongly include: genetics, love and relationship satisfaction, work satisfaction"
lesswrong.com/posts/ZbgCx2nt…
"Extroversion is among the best predictors of happiness, as are conscientiousness, agreeableness, self-esteem, and optimism."

Happiness is subjective and relative. Happiness is not determined by objective factors, but by how you feel about them
"Flow and mindfulness

being "lost in the moment" may provide some of your happiest moments ... when you're not in flow, taking a step outside the moment and practicing "mindfulness" - that is, paying attention - can reduce chronic pain and depression, reduce stress and anxiety"
Read 5 tweets
28 Dec
Re-listened to this podcast with @honam and @acquired - fantastic conversation touching on many interesting ideas.

"You should try to be the best [investment] professional possible, public or private it doesn't matter. It's just fundamentals investing."

open.spotify.com/episode/5kMcoV…
"We've all been doing public investing for decades."

Altos encourages employees to invest their own accounts to practice and constantly learn.

"You get to know these companies over many years and decades and you see these teams. ...
Once in a while something strange happens, whether
it's 2008 or the dotcom crash, that give you this amazing gift. And if you have a mental database of various companies, about different models and teams that you can really get to know."
Read 14 tweets
22 Dec
"While other criminal organizations in Toronto were murdering over minuscule sums, the BCB created whole new enterprises.

They reacted to that orderliness by educating themselves in the realities of the marketplace rather than killing their enemies."

torontolife.com/city/this-man-…
The BCB hired “sifu,” a Cantonese term that loosely translates to “masters” but corresponds in practice to consultants. “Whenever they wanted to get into a new area, a new market, a new trade, they would hire someone to teach them how to get it done,”
To learn the credit card business, they hired manufacturers. For the drug trade, they hired chemists. They brought an industrial approach to organized crime. And Tse would become their greatest innovator.
Read 10 tweets
21 Dec
Fascinating. The new Chinese fast fashion giant.

"By 2020, Shein’s sales had risen to $10 billion, a 250% jump from the year before. In June, the company accounted for 28% of all fast fashion sales in the US — almost as much as both H&M and Zara combined"
restofworld.org/2021/how-shein…
"For years, European brands like Zara and H&M have embodied fast fashion ... Shein isn’t chasing runway trends — rather, it often knocks off items seen on TikTok and Instagram, where hype cycles move significantly faster.
... Whereas Zara typically asks manufacturers to turn around minimum orders of 2,000 items in 30 days, Shein asks for as few as 100 products in as little as 10 days. “They want factories to be much more nimble,” said Lu"
Read 10 tweets

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