Toynbee in 1967 on why the USA has moved from being in the early 20th C anti-colonialist to becoming conservative and pro-colonialist.
“The reversal of American policies has been dramatic. What, then, is the explanation? The ultimate explanation is, no doubt, the ‘deceitfulness of riches’. Wealth does produce, in its possessors, the unhappy moral effects denounced in the Gospels;
and between the date of the United States’ achievement of independence and the capture of Russia by communism in 1917 the United States had become an incomparably rich country.”
“The American argument is that an [Third World] insurrection that is liberal at the start may turn communist later, so the United States cannot afford to let even a liberal revolution run its course without American intervention against it.”
Toynbee, Looking back 50 years.

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More from @BrankoMilan

28 Dec
(Thread)
I have no strong view on the break up of the USSR. I think that the only republics that were consistently in favor of full independence were Baltic, and had not USSR annexed them in 1940, perhaps that USSR would not have broken up in 1991.
So you can see this as a classic example of imperial overstretch.
But on Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, I have a stronger view that they should not have been created at Versailles because the previous bad experience
with multi-ethnic countries in Central/Eastern Europe should have been a warning. They were, on Versailles' own terms an anomaly because Wilson insisted on self-determination and implicitly creation of nation-states. (btw, Poland also was multi-ethnic).
Read 5 tweets
13 Dec
(Thread)
Last point on post-Soviet growth facts.
1 Taking 15 republics over 30 years gives you the average unweighted (each republic counts the same) growth rate of 1.2% per year per person.
2 But it was small countries like Estonia that had higher growth (e.g. Baltics account for <2% of the total population in the post-Soviet space). If you ask: what was the average population-weighted growth, it drops to 0.8% per person per year.
3 But it gets worse. Since inequality increased in all former republics, the average real growth at the median was probably less than 0.5% per person per year.
Basically: stagnation for the median-income person.
Read 6 tweets
3 Dec
In order not to confuse readers Western media almost never mention that Serbian PM is a lesbian w/a partner & an adopted kid. Or that Serbian governor of the National Bank, years before Yellen, was a woman. The same in Russia. Women and lesbians are apparently praised
only if they work for the allied govts.
In 1992, Dragi Avramovc, a high-level World Bank official and an international civil servant went to Serbia to solve hyperinflation that in Feb 1992 was 313 million percent. Second highest inflation in history. He drove it to zero in less
than 4 months and created convertible dinar (fixed rate with the DM). His was one of the most extraordinary financial successes. But because he was invited by the Milosevic govt to tame inflation, he was seldom interviewed and never received the recognition that he deserved.
Read 4 tweets
28 Nov
(Long thread)
When it is pretended that values determine foreign policy (a propos of the forthcoming "Summit of Democracies").
At the Versailles Peace Conference one among young & idealistic British diplomats was Harold Nicolson. 3y younger than Keynes, he shared his unbounded
enthusiasm & believed the conference would bring the rule of law (based on general principles) in international affairs. He idolized Wilson. But as conference went on & those who pretended to be guided by principles began to break each and every one of them...
(like the self-determination that did not apply to Africans and Asians, equality of races that was found abhorrent by Wilson) his mood, like Keynes', soured. Keynes wrote The Economic Consequences, a devastating portrait of the main protagonists and Wilson in particular.
Read 10 tweets
26 Nov
Smithiana
Through the glass, darkly
branko2f7.substack.com/p/through-the-…
Adam Smith: is democracy always better for the poor?
branko2f7.substack.com/p/adam-smith-i…
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
Long thread.
Some of you know that I am writing a book on how economists from Quesnay, to Smith, Ricardo, Marx, Pareto and Kuznets, and then those during the Cold War economics in East and West and in the Third World perceived & studied economic inequality. All chapters are fun.
When the Cold War chapter will be finished (title: The Eclipse) it will be super critical of neoclassics. (They better be worried :-) But it is not ready yet & for now I have drafts of the first 5 chapters, from Quesnay to Pareto. Given the current situation with travel, I would
prefer to present some chapters online now in order to get comments rather quickly than to wait for future hypothetical seminars.
The most difficult chapter to write (& probably the most controversial) is on Marx. Smith comes next. I had received written comments from 4 readers
Read 9 tweets

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