People keep throwing their hands up and say ‘this is going to continue forever!!
Why do I say things will very likely be significantly different / better after this spring? Several key things:
1. Children will have the opportunity to be vaccinated, taking away a large group of immunologically naive people that cohort together socially.
2. We will have been through a fairly fulsome period of population exposure that will add dimension to population immunity
More of the world (I hope!) will have access to and administration of vaccines
So the net sum of population immunity will be good and it is likely peaks severe illness will be manageable….depending on shift and drift of this virus
So no, I don’t think we will be having the same conversations in a year. And there are reasons why (not). Could this be wrong? I could always be wrong about an RNA virus, but I think we will be close to a virus to monitor and respect, but not change humanity.
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Here’s a phrase we need to start familiarizing ourselves with (again, for those of us around long enough): community viral load. There are times when it matters how much asymptomatic virus is around even if not causing disease.
Community viral load refers to the overall level of virus in a community, regardless (and perhaps especially if it doesn’t cause) symptoms. It’s Impt when there are discrete groups of susceptible individuals ESPECIALLY with no symptom infections. Gets away from each case.
Why know the term? Because we have a cohorted group of unvaccinated individuals, there are vulnerable vaccinated, and this particular virus is aggressive clinically and transmission wise. That is to say….
Why am I such a proponent of limiting virus for the next few months instead of going for a ‘usual respiratory virus’ plan? To be clear, I want to limit virus but not people. But too early for respiratory virus ‘business as usual’ yet. @PHAC_GC@JustinTrudeau
1. We have amazing tools for COVID prevention beyond isolation and lockdown. Broad and innovative implementation of rapid tests, basic respiratory hygiene, and masks are easy, socially enably tools that work. Paid sick days also extremely important.
2. There’s some reasonable signal that even those who don’t become extremely ill may have long term sequelae. We don’t fully know or understand this, but it does seem more marked and present than with other respiratory viruses.
Nova Scotia: public health may be a little longer getting in touch with people for the next few days. They are really and truly doing an amazing job but there is some trouble getting everything done quickly right now.
As Nova Scotians, we can help them and each other get this COVID-21 controlled.
Please don’t get frustrated, upset or angry. (Well, you can, it’s been a long year) BUT here are some ways to take control and be proactive!!
We NEED you NOW Nova Scotia!
1. If you have symptoms, don’t wait, not even a day! Get tested at a Nova Scotia Health authority testing site (NOT a pop up site!!). You are NOT putting a strain on the system. You are doing the right thing.