As I proposed a metric for evaluating booster campaigns to @spignal and didn‘t want to be the lazy guy not actually doing the analysis, I did a very preliminary one. And there‘s a story - just not the one people seem to want to find (short thread)
@spignal Booster campaigns are time dependent on full vaccination. Accordingly, to see whether boosters are on track, it would seem appropriate to look at the time lag between full vaccination and booster.
I looked at when different countries reached the percentage of full vaccination they now have boostered. The later they did, the better the booster campaign.
The result is that Western European countries are all similar. The respective dates were all in June: 29 (France) 28 (Germany) 26 (UK) 25 (Italy) 13 (Spain). No story there. But there is a story if you include the US: the US date is April 2.
So the question is: what is going on in the US? It had the fastest vaccine campaign (though it reached a low ceiling)
And this is its booster campaign. The bottom one.
What explains this? The strong novax movement explains the low ceiling of fully vaccinated, but what is going on with boosters? That cannot be vaccine scepticism at this low rate. What‘s going on? Anyone?
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A small thread on comparing covid numbers across borders - and why it has become more difficult rather than easier (thread)
First up: how many cases are there. The number of choice is the incidence rate. Cases per 100,000 on a 7-day average (or something along those lines). /2
Asymptomatic cases have meant that these numbers can differ with the number of tests (and this fact in and of itself can also be used as an excuse). However, you can compensate to some extent with the positivity rate of tests. But can you still? /3
Short explainer: what do I mean by successful Brexit (thread)
1) The UK has left the EU. As someone teaching trade: putting up trade barriers to your largest market will leave you poorer than before. But the UK has left the EU nonetheless. Period.
2) But in that reality you can choose good and bad policies - more and less successful ones. A successful Brexit for me means choosing good policies.
If the byelection can change the mode of argument in UK politics away from Brexifying everything - it would be a significant victory for everyone. But I fear it will be dismissed as about the PM /1
The current mode of British politics is that if you have a proposal- say about recycling -someone will inevitably wonder what the EU would do and from then on your proposal will not be about recycling. It will be either a great victory for British liberty or submission to slavery
In fact, if you want your proposal to succeed you have to get ahead of the game and make sure your proposal will become the Britain-affirming-freedom-striking-successfully-into-the-world-world-beating-2021 Act.
Everybody, please tone down on the vaccine comparisons. And please, please - none of the superlatives (thread)
It is true that Germany boostered a LOT of people today. It is also true that the UK has boostered more of the population. But it is also true that German vaccinations are not as old as the UK ones. Where does that leave us? /1
In a territory where things are complex. We should try to identify mistakes and correct them. We should work on improving. Hither and thither. The boombastic statements - they simply do not apply. Except... /2
Freeports are in the news again. When discussing them keep in mind that 'freeport' is not really a clearly defined term. What they do and how they work is entirely up to the regulation surrounding the concrete model /1
As a customs simplification tool freeports are no longer the miracle tool they once were or seemed to be. Because there are simpler tools available in modern custom law. But freeports can be made to do other things (remember: not clearly defined) /2
As a concrete example for the UK model tax benefits come to mind. Companies will have to look at that. /3
You might remember that the Dunn family brought a judicial review to the High Court. The Court found 'Our conclusion is that Mrs Sacoolas enjoyed immunity from UK criminal jurisdiction at the time of Harry’s death.' (para. 119). /2
The CPS is not charging Sacoolas, who will appear via video link. See this news item that does not seem to answer many of the essential questions /3 theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/d…