I wish I could share the optimism of John Curtice. But behind the -250 Conservative seats +213 Labour seats and +63 LibDem seats I cannot help but see a populist rather than a competence revolution /1

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1809130173133926702

First of all Labour only gained 1.7% of the votes, the victory is due to reform winning 14.3%. That, my friends, is more than the AfD has won in German parliamentary elections. What protected Parliament is that the 14.3% translated into a Tory loss rather than a populist win/2

I fear the framing of the discussions surrounding EU-UK relations under Labour is still quite wrong when sources say the "EU will not rush to reopen Brexit talks". Let me explain. /1

theguardian.com/politics/artic… The UK and the EU chose an FTA as the basis for their trade relations. There are quite a few additional add-ons, it's a very broad FTA, but that's what it is. /2

The German statement on the ICC is out. And it supports the ICC. /1

https://twitter.com/AuswaertigesAmt/status/1792631911027744909

"The ICC is a basic achievement of the international community that Germany always supported. Germany respects its independence and its procedures as those of other international courts. /2

I know some will brush off @RishiSunak 's comments on the ECtHR and the ECHR as irrelevant given that his days in office are almost over. They are not. They are dangerous for the UK and show some politicians have not learned a thing. Why? /1 First: Once again a UK leader makes a commitment to leave an international system to limit immigration without any regard to the impact of leaving. That impact? /2

Sorry to emphasize this again, but please note the "direct and public incitement to commit genocide" aspect of the case, which weirdly is often left out of commentary on the ICJ case. It is incredibly important. /1 South Africa submitted numerous statements that show that a cavalier attitude has developed to say truly horrendous things. Now that does not equal showing a state policy of genocide. But it is deeply troubling. And the court decided to remind Israel of what needs to be done /2

Germany demonstrating against the extreme right: Cologne /1

https://twitter.com/darioschramm/status/1747608885878264130

Hamburg /2

https://x.com/Senat_Hamburg/status/1748360331812892708?s=20

Some thoughts on the South Africa-Israel case before the ICJ, as I am unhappy with some comments. I’ll try to keep this untechnical. /1 1) South Africa files the case as a state party to the genocide convention against Israel as another state party alleging violations of the convention. This is permissible, as every state party is held to have an interest in upholding the convention.

Ofcom has published a list of swearwords by degree of offensiveness, which really is a f****** great service for non-native speakers. So here it is (thread) Part 2

The Trump indictment: 34 counts of Falsifying Business Records in the First Degree (if I'm not mistaken) manhattanda.org/wp-content/upl… This is the offense at issue: NY Penal Law $ 175.10 Falsifying Business Records in the First Degree, a class E felony

On stamping passports: why is that done? Regulation 2133/2004 on the requirement ... to stamp systematically the travel documents says why: no stamp: you can presume you are not respecting the conditions relating to short stays /1 While that regulation is no longer in force, the currently in force regulation 2016/399 did not change anything in that regard. Here's Art. 11 on stamping of travel documents. /2

Let me give the Dover issue a shot. Problem: post Brexit controls take quite a bit longer than intra-EU. This was well understood and obvious when we (well, you) chose Brexit. In peak times this leads to enormous stress on the system. /1 What can be done? Two solutions come to mind. A) reduce peaks. A better staggering of (relevant) holidays. /2

There's some confusion over the numbers of FTA (and Brexit) impact assessments. I'm not an economist, so I asked a friend to clarify. So... /1 Normally what these figures do is they compare two stable states: NOW and AFTER the event (whether it is the reduction of trade barriers by way of an FTA or the building up of trade barriers through leaving an FTA/CU/SM) /2

The article makes some rather perplexing points, to say the least. (short thread)

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1639745975534202883

First of all: deciding not to abide by ECtHR interim measures is a breach of the Convention. /1

Here’s the thing about making Brexit work a little bit better and making trade easier to bring food prices down @tnewtondunn . Where exactly will the tomatoes come from? Australia? Or Spain and the Netherlands? H/t @implausibleblog So your argument is to bring down trade barriers with the EU, and those barriers are not tariffs, as we have the TCA, but SPS and formalities, which require what… ? Yes, a discussion on regulation.

Approving Windsor: EU side. Note how the process differs from the UK. In the UK the joint committee decision is decided on by HMG. Period. /1

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1638153604916756480

On the EU side (because of the federal structure), the position of the EU is established by the Council - and so member states governments have to agree, the Commission cannot decide on its own under Art. 218(9). /2

Some words on Art. 49(3) of the French Constitution as people seem upset about Macron based on (often) a misunderstanding. I deleted anything that could be perceived as an ad hominem by me. And realize that means this comment will be seen only by those who least need it. /1 Here's Art. 49 of the French Constitution /2 conseil-constitutionnel.fr/le-bloc-de-con…

The House of Commons has some helpful statistics on asylum. This is a comparison of asylum applications per 10,000 population /1 And here are the absolute numbers. The UK received 48540 applications in 2021, less than GER (190500) FR (120700) ES (65300) and IT (53600) /2

Let me illustrate the point @juergen_maier is making: let‘s DO assume the UK can regulate far better than the EU. And creates a far better REACH system. Let‘s just assume that. What will happen? /1

https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1631426800759758848

Reach, by the way, is a system for registering, evaluating, authorising and restricting chemicals. So: Premise, the UK puts in place a better system than the EU currently has „making use of our Brexit freedom“. /2

Dearlove‘s comments - besides showing he apparently doesn‘t know there‘s no effective defence integration in the EU - expose a problem of how the EU is discussed. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland all moved incredibly fast to support Ukraine - from inside the EU. /1

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1628051251853246467

But EU debate tends to focus on either France or Germany. Other countries are ignored. Which leads to at times massive misperceptions. All the more so at a time when Germany and France are not eye to eye on everything.

If the PM is driven by the ERG and follows them on every decisive issue, the Tories have become the ERG. Even if the PM might not personally be. It’s up to moderate Tories to decide if that is what they want to be. /1 There once was the dream that ‚Europe’ could be split from other issues. That but for this issue unity can be maintained. Some still dream that dream. But a dream it is. /2

As people are positioning themselves back in their old trenches, allow me to add some nuance and flavor to this in a - hopefully not to complicated - thread. /1

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1626610790554902529

First of all: the NIP is a treaty. That treaty was nodded through by 27 Member States in the Council. To negotiate a change to that treaty, the Commission needs a mandate. It does not have one. We all knew this. So: no formal treaty change. This is the obvious bit. /2