Good to have you involved along these lines. Important though to distinguish here between vaxx efficacy in trials using relative risk reduction (RRR) & vaxx efficiency in real world using absolute risk reduction (ARR).
https://twitter.com/godfriedpimlott/status/1476103420117323780
Lancet:
Israeli mass vaccination campaign using the Pfizer–BioNTech product....the design and methodology are radically different from the randomised trial,2 Dagan and colleagues11 report an RRR of 94%, which is essentially the same as the RRR of the phase 3 trial (95%) but...
Israeli mass vaccination campaign using the Pfizer–BioNTech product....the design and methodology are radically different from the randomised trial,2 Dagan and colleagues11 report an RRR of 94%, which is essentially the same as the RRR of the phase 3 trial (95%) but...
'with an ARR of 0·46%, which translates into an NNV of 217 (when the ARR was 0·84% and the NNV was 119 in the phase 3 trial).'
Which is to say, in a real-world campaign 217 = number needed to vaccinate (NNV) in order to prevent 1 case.
Which is to say, in a real-world campaign 217 = number needed to vaccinate (NNV) in order to prevent 1 case.
'There are many lessons to learn from the way studies are conducted and results are presented. With the use of only RRRs, and omitting ARRs, reporting bias is introduced, which affects the interpretation of vaccine efficacy.10'
thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…
thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…
So, using a case fatality rate CFR of 1%, to keep math easy, your NNV to prevent 1 death would be 21700.
W/ boosters, against Omicron, RRR is more like 50%, ARR .3%, CFR of .5%, thus NNV to prevent 1 death (guessing) ~40,000, every 2 to 6 months--or 80 to 240k jabs / yr.
W/ boosters, against Omicron, RRR is more like 50%, ARR .3%, CFR of .5%, thus NNV to prevent 1 death (guessing) ~40,000, every 2 to 6 months--or 80 to 240k jabs / yr.
So 20k to 240k jabs (NNV) to prevent 1 death per year; for most children w/ a vanishingly low CFR, the NNV might be 10x or 20x ⬆️-- i.e, anywhere from 200k to 5 million to prevent 1 death; 45 million kids in US X NNV for 1 death prevented = 9 deaths (225 deaths for NNV = 200k).
but now you've bought that many tickets to the known / unknown risk lottery of vaxx to individual--over a child's lifetime-- & to pop. immunity, while driving vaxx evol.
Year after year...comparing this with very selectively vaccinating (ideally w/ better vaxx) the vulnerable while cultivating immunity among low risk, freeing up early treatment, serious NPIs -- ventilation, low-circulation pandemic strategy (end super spreader vaxx & pretend).
Which is to say right now leaky vaxx with an ARR of far less than 1% is used to sprinkle holy water over current regime of half-assing endemicity, selective superspreader access (pro sports, concerts, restaurants int'l travel), massive pharma profits, rights violations...
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