In the North of the North Pacific up near Alaska there is a very large area of clear Ocean that that can be seen through the clouds which looks a little like a giant rotating eye.
Here we see it in context along side North America, and the entire rotating high-pressure area appears to be roughly the size of North America. Its presence appears to be contributing to the big freeze in Canada and all the snow in the US.
And here we see it on December 27-28. At the bottom of the animations you can see the onshore atmospheric river flows which are bringing massive rains to California, and moisture to the midwest and north east.
The next four tweets contain animations of this behemoth blocking high over the last 4 days - each 12 hours long. This one begins at 1am CET (midnight on Christmas Eve GMT/Midday NZT) and shows the early development of the core on Christmas Day.
By 13:00 CEST on Christmas Day the size of the clear ocean eye is 770k km2,
And by 13:00 CEST on Boxing Day it has grown 1 million km2 to 1.75 million km2.
On the third day of Christmas the clear ocean part has moved north as whispy looking clouds move in to cover the Southern half of the circulation. The clear ocean area looks a lot bigger because it is further north but is actually just 17,000 km2 bigger at 1.82 million km2.
On the fourth day of Christmas the rotation is at its most spectacular, turning into something that looks like a rotating leaf/whale, albeit one which is now 2.2million km2 in size. A little bit bigger than Mexico.
This special animation of this phase runs for 24 hours from 2pm CEST yesterday to 2pm today - and shows the rotating pupil of the #EyeOfThePacific at its most magnificent IMO.
And this final 12 hour animation takes us up to now. The clear area of the eye is beginning to fill but it remains close to its peak at 1.9million km2.
This images shows the overlaid measurements used in this thread.
This five day MLSP forecast suggests the #EyeOfThePacific will remain open for at least one more day, possibly two, and I will update this thread with its final evolution.
(continuing story)
P.S. The GFS model suggests a similar pattern may return in mid January.
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A wise head here in the media center just made a compelling counter argument to the practicality of the G77 and China walking away from the talks here.
And it’s essentially based in the recognition of rising geo-strategic entropy and the phenomena arising out of a lack any coherent global order. /1
The loud activist refrain here is “no deal is better than a bad deal.” But the question is what will the mean. in another conversation a person involved in finance talks just suggested that it’s looking very unlikely that there will be any agreement here simply because there is no strong leadership here. And in particular minimal representation here of strong G7 leadership. /2
By strong here I mean “financially strong.”
So the most likely outcome here now looks to almost certainly be no agreement on an NCQG and as a result it’s feeling rather gloomy now. /3
It’s a gray day here at #COP29Azerbaijan as the 29th Meeting of Nations to address what is now a #ClimateCrisis enters extra time, day one. THREAD.
Civil Society is preparing for a big day in the COP29 venue till the Closing Plenary is convened most likely fairly late Saturday. Here are letters sent to the largest Developing block of COP Nations G77+ China and several developed world nations last night.
This came after new texts were released on the Core remaining issues in this Climate Summit:
Finance - specifically the NCQG - the draft text contained the first number placed on the table 250 Billion, which is not even an inflation adjusted upgrade on the 100 Billion a year in finance agreed in Copenhagen in 2009.
The city is remarkably like Wellington weather wise swinging from day to day and occasionally lovely on a good day.
But the NCQG negotiations are still pretty much deadlocked on the most important issue here, Finance, with no numbers on the table yet. And talks still stuck on many of the same issues they were stuck on at the beginning.
I had an opportunity to speak the Egyptian Ambassador as I was leaving who is in a “Pair” appointed by the Presidency with the Australian Ambassador takes to try to get an agreement on the NCQG. He was optimistic about a realistic NCQG figure being eventually offered by Developed Nations to Developing Nations. But did not expect this to come until the very end.
And Negotiations will therefore continue today. This video was at the venue last night - Birds seem to have a commute past the venue to where they sleep.
Developed Nations want some nations that have developed since the process begun, Annex 2 Nations, to be part of the contributor base. The two most prominent of these China and Saudi Arabia say they are already contributing voluntarily and apparently not keen to be brought into the official NCQG base - and this remains an obstacle.
The Ambassador did not think their position on this will change.
As some followers in NZ may be aware I am currently at #COP29 in Baku Azerbaijan. My fourth COP. And this is a relatively difficult one. Rod Oram died tragically in a cycling accident in March 2024 when I was back in NZ for my first visit since leaving NZ to spread my wings in 2015.
I caught up with him in Glasgow back in 2021 in the time of Covid.
But I have known him for a lot longer as you will see in the photos in this thread. The oldest pictures I have are from him at the Egypt hosted COP in 2022. My second COP.
His successor in climate coverage @NewsroomNZ's @marcdaalder is attending his first COP this year which got me thinking about NZ's COP UNCCC coverage trailblazer for in person COP coverage.
There is a great spirit of camaraderie among the large COP media pool. In Glasgow he helped me orient myself, which is not an effortless process as the COP process is so big and varied and seemingly endless. But the attendees and guardians from the UNFCCC are all great people too.
Here at #COP29 at the end of 2024 the brilliant Marc Daalder is now filling Rod's shoes as in person COP correspondent. Whilst there are a fair few other Kiwis here we are the only Kiwi Journos here that I know of.
As I had never met him I was quite surprised when Cindy Baxter turned up to meet him and it turned out he was sitting one row away from me.
The official video record of COP29 is being erased every 12 hours & nobody here knows
The Media Center for UNFCCC COP meetings was transformed in 2021 in Glasgow during the UK Presidency of the COP. The new high tech set up has cameras in all official meeting places recording the events in full. The content from this system is then made available to media in the MEDIA Center via the IBC (Interational Broadcast Center) platform.
The center also has desks for several hundred journalists to work during the COP.
The first signs came on Thursday day four (14 November 2024) of COP29 last week during the first week of the COP. Ordinarily reporters attending COPs can request access to get files downloaded through a media desk. This can be useful to extract quotes or report on events that we are unable to attend due to timetable clashes etc.
The wrong headed and frankly selfish approach of NZME and STUFF on the issue of the "Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill" [see: mch.govt.nz/our-work/broad…] is deeply problematic for independent and digital native publishing companies such as @Scoop.
Part 1 of my thoughts on the subject can be found here.
Other medium sized digital native publications including @NewsroomNZ and @TheSpinoffTV are in a similar position to us - as well as a large group of smaller independent digital and print publications across New Zealand.
.@Google has made it very clear to the Government that it will withdraw its support for NZ media companies should this Bill pass. It considers the proposal to be a link tax and that the precedent that this would create for how the internet works globally is something that it cannot accept. As this is a global policy issue it will not back down on this.