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prerat

@prerationalist

30 Dec 21

https://twitter.com/prerationalist/status/1421581918710247427

How A Log Market Scoring Rule Works thread

i was gonna do this at some point, now seems like a good time

https://twitter.com/prerationalist/status/1421581918710247427

https://twitter.com/prerationalist/status/1476611456120598531

if you're not familiar with prediction markets in general, see this quick reply thread i just did with an overview

a log market scoring rule implements the market part of a prediction market. it's great because it's automated & always liquid

https://twitter.com/prerationalist/status/1476611456120598531

to quickly recap, the first piece of a prediction market is a "conditional ATM"

you put in regular money, and it prints out "conditional money"

e.g. for a single yes/no event, you can put in $1 of regular money and get out both Y$1 (worth $1 if "yes") and N$1 (worth $1 if "no")

Read 14 tweets

prerat

@prerationalist

21 Sep 21

intro to "bouncy numbers"! 🧵

(I have been wanting to explain this for a while, and I don't think my current explaining approach is perfect, but it's good to start with something!)

there's a punchline, but I'm gonna start by introducing "bouncy numbers" as their own thing

1/

a regular number sits on the number line and it sits still.

for example, here is the number 1.

(see, no bouncing!)

a "bouncy" number moves as if it were attached to an (ideal) spring.

here's a "bouncy" 1.

notice how it starts on the number line at 1, then swing over through 0 and eventually to -1, then swings back and starts over.

Read 22 tweets

prerat

@prerationalist

20 Sep 21

it's not about the note taking app

it's about your *relationship* with the note taking app

this is a joke but it's also true

a todo list is a terrible boss! that's not a good relationship between you and your app

Read 4 tweets

prerat

@prerationalist

13 Dec 20

the optimal amount of self-coercion is zero 😊

but what if you have something you "really need to do"?

there might be a way forward that doesn't involve "forcing" or "tricking" or "willpower" or "self-incentives"

here are some (non-coercive) ideas to get un-stuck:

1/

surrender & see

just REALLY committing to "I won't do it unless I wholeheartedly want to"

this doesn't always work, but often for me (more often than I thought!) the resistance immediately disappears after this promise

if it doesn't work immediately, try some more things:

2/

imagine yourself doing the thing in detail, to convince your gut it is indeed possible!

(sometimes gut thinks something is impossible when it actually is possible. but other times gut is RIGHT, so try to *convince* it like this, instead of *coercing* it)

Read 6 tweets

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