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prerat Profile picture
prerat
@prerationalist
social media influencee
Mar 12, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
writing is easy but it's also hard

since covid started, i wrote over 19000 tweets but i wrote zero blog posts

so i guess i'll write a blog post about that when i was a kid, i would just write and write

at some point it just ... stopped

it's so easy for years and years to go by and you think about doing something a lot but it never happens

but it turns out, there's a phase shift that can happen where suddenly u write 19K tweets
Nov 15, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
yesterday i ran a poll with a coin flip trolley problem.

unfortunately, the clear majority answer leads to EVERYONE dying with 100% probability!!

what happened??

1/ 2/
here's the poll. i took @ole_b_peters' excellent coin flip betting scenario and recast it as a trolley problem

it's an example of a problem where the expected value and the long-run average are NOT the same! this blew my mind when i first heard it

Nov 15, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
REQUEST FOR EVERYONE

pls put a good URL or other backup contact in your bio today!!

then tomorrow we can all use @mechanical_monk's listfollowers.com to download a CSV of all our mutuals WITH good backup contact link! previously we've done like "hey DM me if you wanna stay in touch if twitter crashes" but the problem is that requires everyone to message everyone which is a ton of work & i didn't do it

vs this strategy just requires everyone to do 1 thing once (update their bio)

O(N) vs O(N²)
Mar 24, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
*gestures surreptitiously*

hey

hey u

wanna see some rare impossible qualia STYGIAN BLUE

it's blue, but it's as dark as black

"impossible" because how could a fully dark color have any saturation/color??
Dec 30, 2021 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
How A Log Market Scoring Rule Works thread

i was gonna do this at some point, now seems like a good time


0/ if you're not familiar with prediction markets in general, see this quick reply thread i just did with an overview

a log market scoring rule implements the market part of a prediction market. it's great because it's automated & always liquid



1/
Dec 30, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
my favorite thing is when poasters end their feuds and become bros inspired by @taalumot & @deepfates
Sep 21, 2021 • 22 tweets • 7 min read
intro to "bouncy numbers"! 🧵

(I have been wanting to explain this for a while, and I don't think my current explaining approach is perfect, but it's good to start with something!)

there's a punchline, but I'm gonna start by introducing "bouncy numbers" as their own thing

1/ a regular number sits on the number line and it sits still.

for example, here is the number 1.

(see, no bouncing!)
Sep 20, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
it's not about the note taking app

it's about your *relationship* with the note taking app this is a joke but it's also true
Dec 13, 2020 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
the optimal amount of self-coercion is zero 😊

but what if you have something you "really need to do"?

there might be a way forward that doesn't involve "forcing" or "tricking" or "willpower" or "self-incentives"

here are some (non-coercive) ideas to get un-stuck: 1/
surrender & see

just REALLY committing to "I won't do it unless I wholeheartedly want to"

this doesn't always work, but often for me (more often than I thought!) the resistance immediately disappears after this promise

if it doesn't work immediately, try some more things: