The omicron variant is AT LEAST as bad as the 2020 virus.
But the omicron variant is far more transmissible, and our vaccines don’t work as well against it.
This means that an omicron variant epidemic will infect far more people than a delta variant epidemic would.
In practical terms, this means the omicron variant is MORE dangerous than the delta variant.
I modelled what would happen if either of these variants were allowed to spread in Western Australia with only a *double-dose* vaccination level of 90% (i.e., hardly any third doses).
So we can see that despite being less severe than the delta variant, an omicron variant epidemic could lead to more than 10 times as many hospitalisations, IF the virus were allowed to spread unchecked and IF third vaccine dose coverage remains low.
Governments must not give up trying to control COVID-19 and should adopt a #VaccinesPLUS strategy as a matter of urgency.
Vaccines, ventilation, HEPA air cleaners, better masks (KF94, P2/FFP2, N95), rapid tests, contact tracing, quarantine, financial support. We need it all.
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Policymakers shouldn’t be trying to manage COVID-19 as if it were seasonal influenza. It’s not and never will be. SARS-CoV-2’s greater transmissibility leads to faster viral evolution. This means waves of disease throughout the year, rather than a single winter COVID season. 🧵
Thanks to vaccination, COVID-19 is far less deadly than it used to be. But a virus doesn’t have to put people in hospital to be disruptive. Leaving aside the issue of long COVID, frequent waves of infection will grind down economic productivity.
Many seem to believe COVID-19 will become seasonal, but why should it? Influenza generally isn’t very transmissible and infects a small number of people each year. There’s plenty of time to design vaccines based on what’s happening in the opposite hemisphere of the globe.
(1/6) Respiratory viruses are much more likely to spread indoors than outdoors, but outdoor super-spreading events can still occur if the conditions are right.
A new study describes a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak affecting 131 people at a night market. 🧵
(2/6) The outbreak happened when a family of 3 people infected with the omicron BA.5.2 variant visited a night market in Zhejiang Province, China, in July 2022. They spent 1 hour and 4 minutes at the market.
(3/6) On the evening of the outbreak, it was warm (27 degrees Centigrade), humid, and there was very little wind.
Most of the market stalls had big umbrellas and it was crowded. The market had a capacity of 5,000 people.
Could future vaccines be administered via a patch? Researchers have developed skin patches containing tiny “microneedles” made of sugar and salt which dissolve on contact with skin, painlessly administering a vaccine in the process. 🧵 asm.org/Articles/2022/…
A key advantage of this technology is that a vaccine patch can induce a special kind of immunity in the skin, known as mucosal immunity, which can prevent infection and transmission. Injectable vaccines may only prevent severe disease.
Skin patch vaccines are also likely to have fewer side effects because of the way they slowly dissolve over minutes to hours.
This slow-release formula is less likely to trigger flu-like symptoms that sometimes follow injectable vaccines.
Imagine if you could rapidly detect COVID-19 in public places by testing the air. Now you can! Researchers have developed a groundbreaking new air monitor that can detect the presence of an infected person in as little as 5 minutes. 🧵 nature.com/articles/s4146…
The compact device, which measures 12 x 10 x 10 inches, has a sensitivity of ~80% and can detect as few as 7 viral RNA copies per cubic metre of air with a resolution of 5 minutes.
The major limitation of the prototype is noise (75-80 dB; similar to heavy traffic), although the researchers are trying to develop a quieter version with low-noise motors and/or sound-proofing.
A representative survey of US adults in mid-2022 found that 7% had long COVID (4-week definition; using questions developed by the UK’s Office for National Statistics).