The most memorable interview I did this year was w/ Stanley Druckenmiller, who famously made $1B shorting the British Pound.

The trading legend's track record includes a 30-year stretch returning 30%+ a year (without a single down year).

Here are 8 investing lessons🧵
1/ Make concentrated bets in high conviction plays
2/ Concentrated bets can sometimes *reduce* risk
3/ Use a multi-disciplinary approach to investing
4/ Know when to sell (he never uses a stop loss)
5/ You will fight emotions your entire career
6/ His biggest investing mistake came in 2000 when he let emotions overpower his discipline
7/ If you don’t *really* love investing, you will get beat by those who do
8/ Find what *actually* makes a stock goes up or down
9/ If you enjoyed that, I write 1-2x interesting threads a week.

Follow @TrungTPhan to catch them in your feed.

Here's one you might like:
10/ PS. I also write a Saturday newsletter digging up the most interesting (and mostly hilarious) nuggets from around the web.

trungphan.substack.com
11/ Here's the full Q&A (audio, text) with Druckenmiller. It covers his views on the tech stocks, inflation, Wall Street Bets, crypto (BTC, ETH, DOGE), China and more:

thehustle.co/stanley-drucke…
12/ One more: Be able to change your mind (before losing $3B in 2000, Druckenmiller pulled a stunning 180-degree turn in 1999)

(This story is courtesy of the Financial Times)
13/ Here is Stan’s guess for the first FAAMG company to reach $5T

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More from @TrungTPhan

27 Dec 21
In 1998, Marvel offered Sony all of its heroes + villains for $25m. Sony said it *only* wanted Spider-Man (and paid $10m for it)

While “No Way Home” is the first pandemic-era film to make $1B, the other Marvel films grossed $13B+ for Disney.

LESSON: Always take the first offer.
For other timeless business lessons, check out my Saturday email: trungphan.substack.com

Here is more background on the Spider Man deal from WSJ:
Notes:

◻️The $13B+ is prob closer to $20B (WSJ article from 2018)
◻️ Tom Holland Spider-Man series (Homecoming, Far From Home, No Way Home) co-produced by Disney-owned Marvel Studios and Sony-owned Columbia Pictures (w/ Sony handling distribution)

🔗 wsj.com/amp/articles/t…
Read 4 tweets
26 Dec 21
Here's a wholesome Reddit thread for the holiday weekend: "What is random great advice?"

12 legit ones🧵
"You spend half your life walking and sleeping. Never buy cheap shoes or a shitty mattress."
"Don’t take criticism from people you’d never go to for advice."
Read 18 tweets
23 Dec 21
Why does Red Bull own an F1 team?

Because the company — which sells $7B+ of energy drinks a year — is a pure marketing firm (outsources all production).

Its invested $2B+ into F1 but has gained multiples of that for the brand by "manufacturing history".

Here’s a breakdown🧵
1/ Red Bull. Everyone's favorite concoction of sugar, B-vitamins, taurine and caffeine.

Today, it sells ~8B cans a year and is the market leader in what is a $50B+ energy drink market.

So, how is it *only* a marketing company?
2/ Red Bull makes nothing. Production is outsourced to Rauch, an Austrian bottler.

The drink blend is not proprietary (vs. Coke, which has a secret recipe).

So it spends ALOT on marketing (~35% of sales) to differentiate the brand; way more than Coca-Cola (9%) and Pepsi (7%).
Read 20 tweets
19 Dec 21
A Rolls-Royce starts at $300k and easily breaks 7-figures with upgrades.

Why is it so expensive? One word: bespoke.

Here’s a breakdown 🧵
1/ Rolls-Royce is the peak of lux vehicles and gets mad expensive b/c of customization: 90% of cars are one-off (very non-fungible):

◻️ Rolls produces ~5k vehicles a year (3-6 months to complete one)
◻️ In comparison, BMW makes 2m+ cars a year (takes 24-48 hours to complete one)
2/ Rolls sources the best material and employs top artisans in:
◻️sewing
◻️lighting
◻️wood paneling
◻️painting
◻️engine technicians

Each ~2.5 tonne car is worked on by 50+ specialists and customizations are done by hand.
Read 17 tweets
12 Dec 21
Went down a rabbit hole looking for cross-industry innovations (AKA one industry borrowing from another). Found some gems.

Here are 10 of them 🧵
James Dyson created the Dyson vacuum design after seeing how sawmills use cyclone force to eject sawdust.
The OG example: Henry Ford's car assembly line borrowed innovations from 3 industries:

◻️ Watch (interchangeable parts)
◻️ Canning (continuous flow manufacturing)
◻️ Meatpacking (Ford reversed the "disassembly" part of the meatpacking process - AKA chopping up cows)
Read 14 tweets
10 Dec 21
Our intuitions often leads us astray. A good reminder: study counterintuitive math and economic results.

Here are 9 of them 🧵
The Birthday Paradox

In a room of 23 people, there's a >50% chance that 2 people share the same birthday.

This type of probabilistic thinking does *not* come naturally to many people.
The Coastline Paradox

Fractal geometry is also confounding:

The coastline of a landmass does not have a well-defined measurement. As the unit of measurement gets smaller (eg. from KMs to cm), the length increases without limit.
Read 14 tweets

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