Despite the race being poised seemingly on a knife-edge, by the time all the votes are counted, I think Kamala Harris will win comfortably and become the first female President of the United States... at long last. It's about time!
Here are my Top 10 reasons, in no particular order:
1) Easier path... all she needs to do is hold the blue wall states of PA, MI and WI and she's got it. The poll numbers look increasingly strong there. If those states come in, that's 270 and everything above that is gravy.
2) Enthusiasm/Momentum... in these last few critical days, we're seeing Trump failing to fill his rallies and Harris rallies just going nuts. If that translates into voter enthusiasm and likeliness to get out (which we saw in our polling two weeks ago) that translates into votes.
So far, a total of 217,000+ votes have been counted. The last two midterm elections, in 2014 and 2018, saw a total of 282,000 votes cast (in each of them). If anything, this year will be higher, so folks… we’ve got a bit of a ways to go.
The remaining ~65,000 votes will be a combination of absentee, questioned and rural votes, all of which will lean left of what has been cast up to this point.
That will improve the numbers for Peltola and Murkowski.
If the count stopped now, how would the RCV numbers pan out? I wish the Division of Elections would run the hypotheticals… it would tamp down on the ludicrous voter fraud whispers and increase transparency and confidence. But that not my decision… 🤷♂️
Good morning, campers! Here are the results of Alaska Survey Research’s latest poll on the Congress and Senate races in Alaska! These are the toplines… if you’d like the full report, you can request it at ivan@alaskasurveyresearch.com. It will be ready Wednesday morning.
1/12
Here are the survey details:
Alaska Survey Research
October 19-22, 2022
1,276 likely voters
MOE: +/-3.0%
Methodology: Text-to-online
2/12
First the Congress race. Mary Peltola is still categorically on fire.