OK, here's my prediction for tomorrow.

Despite the race being poised seemingly on a knife-edge, by the time all the votes are counted, I think Kamala Harris will win comfortably and become the first female President of the United States... at long last. It's about time! Here are my Top 10 reasons, in no particular order:

1) Easier path... all she needs to do is hold the blue wall states of PA, MI and WI and she's got it. The poll numbers look increasingly strong there. If those states come in, that's 270 and everything above that is gravy.

Someone pass a law to ban this filth now. This grooms our kids and makes them be all gay. Utter degeneracy.

ALASKA UPDATE:

So far, a total of 217,000+ votes have been counted. The last two midterm elections, in 2014 and 2018, saw a total of 282,000 votes cast (in each of them). If anything, this year will be higher, so folks… we’ve got a bit of a ways to go. The remaining ~65,000 votes will be a combination of absentee, questioned and rural votes, all of which will lean left of what has been cast up to this point.

That will improve the numbers for Peltola and Murkowski.

Good morning, campers! Here are the results of Alaska Survey Research’s latest poll on the Congress and Senate races in Alaska! These are the toplines… if you’d like the full report, you can request it at ivan@alaskasurveyresearch.com. It will be ready Wednesday morning.

1/12 Here are the survey details:

Alaska Survey Research
October 19-22, 2022
1,276 likely voters
MOE: +/-3.0%
Methodology: Text-to-online

2/12

NEW ALASKA POLL RESULTS

Alaska Survey Research
1,282 Likely General Election voters
September 25-27, 2022
Fielded online with text-recruited respondents
MOE +/- 3.0%

Wins for Mary Peltola (US Congress), Lisa Murkowski (US Senate) and Mike Dunleavy (AK Governor) US Congress

Round 1:

Mary Peltola 48.7%
Sarah Palin 23.3%
Nicholas Begich 25.6%
Chris Bye 2.4%

Chris Bye eliminated

Round 2:

Mary Peltola 49.7%
Sarah Palin 23.9%
Nicholas Begich 26.3%

Sarah Palin eliminated

WHAT DOES ALASKA THINK ABOUT THE ABORTION ISSUE?

A thread 🧵

Results of particular interest to @lisamurkowski who should know which side of her bread has the butter on it.

Alaska Survey Research
July 20-25, 2022
N=1,500 adults MOE +\~ 2.7%
Methodology: Text-to-online

1/16 Q: Recently, the Supreme Court of the United States overturned Roe v Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling that guaranteed the right to an abortion.

Did you strongly approve, mildly approve, mildly disapprove or strongly disapprove of this decision to overturn Roe v Wade?

2/16

ALASKA CONGRESS SPECIAL ELECTION UPDATE

The Division of Elections dropped another update last night that was very good news for Mary Peltola.

Our latest projection suggests that based on ballots counted so far, after redistribution we’re headed for…

Palin 50.7%
Peltola 49.3% This assumes 4.7% Begich bullet votes and a 68.1% - 31.9% of the remainder, per our survey data from July 20-25.

It also includes a hypothetical redistribution of the write-in vote, most of which will likely be votes for Tara Sweeney.

For those of you thinking that Begich voters are just going to go lockstep by party registration and vote for Sarah Palin 2nd choice, let’s first ground ourselves in reality by looking at the positive-negative ratings of the three candidates… among BEGICH VOTERS ONLY. There were 317 Begich voters in our July survey… and understandably, their rating of Nick Begich was very favorable:

Positive 71%
Negative 11%
Neutral 11%
Never heard 7%

CONGRESS UPDATE THREAD:

After the Div of E dropped 20,000 more votes on the pile yesterday, I’ve run my numbers again. Remember this is using our survey data from the last survey we did July 20-25. Yes, it was 3 weeks out, but had a large sample and was super accurate…

1/10 We used the survey percentages of Begich voters who bullet voted, and the split of Begich voters’ preferences for Palin and Peltola. Recall it extrapolated to 51.9%-48.1% immediately post-election.

Running the new numbers through the Alaska Survey Research supercomputer…

2/10

CONGRESS POLL RESULTS:

Last Friday we released Congress special election poll results… here are the results of the main Congress election to be held in Nov 2022.

The candidates are almost 100% likely to be Palin, Begich and Peltola, with the addition of a 3rd R, Tara Sweeney. The details:

July 20-25
1,423 registered voters
1,253 likely general election voters
1,030 “certain” to vote
MOE +/-3.0%
Methodology: Text-to-online

OFFICIAL RELEASE: Begich in strong position to replace Young, Santa Claus in 4th in latest special election poll.

Alaska Survey Research
Statewide Alaska
605 likely special election voters
+/-4% MOE
Fielded online
Dates:  5/6-9/2022

1/16 Q:  In late May and early June, a vote-by-mail election will be held to elect a replacement for Congressman Don Young. If you were voting today, for whom would you vote? 

Palin 19%
Begich 16%
Gross 13%
Claus 6%
Peltola 5%
Constant 5%
Sweeney 4%
…
2/16

What are the most popular vacation destinations in Alaska, for Alaskans?

We asked 835 Alaskans the following question:

"Imagine... you've got a 7-day vacation this spring, all expenses paid, anywhere you want to go in Alaska... where would you go?"

A thread! 10th= place... Ketchikan

More poll results got off the presses…

The Alaska Survey
Dates: 10/22-27
Methodology: Random digit cellphone, text-to-online
Municipality of Anchorage
Sample size: 458 registered voters
Margin of error: +4.6% Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Dave Bronson is doing as Anchorage Mayor?

Results:

Approve: 35%
Disapprove: 48%
Not sure: 17%