The internet increases variance.

Social media increases social volatility.
Going viral, getting canceled, large gains or losses in status.

Digital currency increases financial volatility.
Going to the moon, getting rekt, large gains or losses in financial status.
We're still in the middle of this ongoing social and financial earthquake.

The internet has given a voice to the voiceless, taken the prestige from the prestigious, given a bank to the bankless, taken the power to print from the printing press.
Some of these changes are transient, here today and gone tomorrow. A viral joke or social mob, now forgotten. An unrealized capital gain or loss, not life changing.

Others may be more permanent. People from nothing rising to the top, people at the top falling to the bottom.
Also previously, a mechanistic explanation.
For those who start with nothing, high volatility is a good bet. That's the ascending world.

But for the establishment, it's terrible. The possible gains don't matter as much as the possible loss of #1.

See also @tylercowen on the envelope game.
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…

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More from @balajis

1 Jan
Barista, farmer, dockworker, lab tech. ImageImageImageImage
Firefighter, captain, soldier, postman. ImageImageImageImage
Cameraman, surgeon, truck driver, pilot. ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
29 Dec 21
Note that @AarikaRhodes and @RoKhanna are Democrats, while @bgmasters and @JDVance1 are Republicans, but they all support Bitcoin. You can donate across the aisle, 50% D and 50% R if you are a single issue pro-Bitcoin voter.
Read 7 tweets
27 Dec 21
I wrote up a detailed piece on how we can combine web2 and web3 tools to automate the mess of angel investing.

The key concept is a mirrortable, which is to a cap table what a stablecoin is to a fiat currency.
balajis.com/mirrortable
The mirrortable is a non-ideological productivity improvement for angel investors. You don’t need to want to End the Fed to end the process of chasing documents across dozens of apps.

This post is the 5300 word expansion of the 280 character remark below.
Why do we want to streamline angel investing? So we can invest in more founders, in more countries. So we can decentralize the process of wealth creation, backing people in the Midwest and the Middle East.

Here's the feature set we'll want to do that.
balajis.com/mirrortable/
Read 4 tweets
26 Dec 21
How to limit volatility?

In web2, load balancers[1] improve worst case latency at the cost of a little guaranteed latency

In web3, collars[2] improve worst case financial expense at the cost of a little guaranteed expense

[1] cloudflare.com/learning/perfo…
[2] investopedia.com/articles/activ…
If you plot a histogram of latency before and after the introduction of a load balancer, you'll often find that average latency gets a bit worse (as you need to do two hops: load balancer and then server), but worst case latency gets way better.

Often an acceptable tradeoff.
Similarly, if you plot a histogram of expected financial profit before & after buying a collar, you'll find that the average profit gets a bit worse (due to the cost of the collar) but worst case profit gets way better.

Also often an acceptable tradeoff.
investopedia.com/articles/activ…
Read 7 tweets
23 Dec 21
$1000 in BTC for web2 v web3 infographic

List the top web2 public companies.

How much value was created after the IPO, thus accessible to retail?

What was investor, team, and user ownership at IPO? (The latter is usually 0 in web2).

Now do this for web3 companies & projects.
Some notes:

Define a web2 company for these purposes as an internet company that does not make significant use of a blockchain like Bitcoin or Ethereum in its business. Facebook, Twitter, etc are canonical.

Define a web3 company or project as one that does rely on a blockchain.
To win

We’ll award $1000 to the best infographic, and maybe some runner up prizes.

Post it as reply to the thread within 24 hours, along with raw data + sources.
Read 7 tweets
22 Dec 21
Why does social media make us memoryless?

One thesis is: each day we see the most important thing ever. But then yesterday’s most important thing is less important. And last week’s viral post? Already forgotten.

Perhaps we want more consistency and less novelty.
I first saw the Feiler Faster thesis in a piece by @kausmickey 20+ years ago. More recently, @Noahpinion and @micsolana have written on the phenomenon.

But I feel it’s been going on for longer than that, perhaps accelerating with media decentralization. slate.com/news-and-polit…
Read 5 tweets

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