Thread by @john_actuary

On the day the Health Sec announces that the target to offer everyone over 18 a booster (if eligible) by the year end has been met, let's take a look at progress.

321k reported today, down a third on last week.

Total is now 28.4m.

1/

There are still just under 9m who are eligible and yet to be jabbed. Even if we assumed only 90% want to come forward, that would leave around 5m still waiting, predominately U50s.

Many of course will have a recent positive test, so are unable to come forward at the moment.

2/

In total, around 76% of those eligible have been boosted - and where it really matters, over age 50, it's 91%, which is a really good performance.

3/

Comparing the age bands with all those who've had two jabs we can clearly see the variation by age here, ranging from less than half of under 30s being boosted, to over 90% at older ages.

4/

And here we see progress over the last month, with the rapid acceleration from the middle of the month, the impact of Xmas, and slower progress since.

5/

The govt target was to offer everyone eligible a jab by year end. By having walk-in centres available, it could be argued that's been met, although convenience of both those and booked centres needs to be taken into account, in terms of people's ability to come forward.

6/

And of course the "offer" point covers those who decide that they don't actually want to have a booster - something that is (to some degree) out of the vaccination programme's control, at least in the short term and in the context of the emergency push we've had.

7/

We've still to add today's figures to get a true year end position of those jabbed. But what's clear is that the NHS, staff and volunteers, responded magnificently to the challenge laid down by the PM, and any assessment of the success of the programme should reflect that.
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