News that the U.S. population barely grew in 2021, together with ever-falling birthrates and the decline in immigration, raises the possibility the nation will be shrinking in the not-so-distant future.
That won't necessarily make housing more affordable trib.al/yhSPInH
That won't necessarily make housing more affordable trib.al/yhSPInH
If the U.S. population starts to decline, it might lead to even less housing demand in stagnant metro areas and a worse housing affordability crisis in the smaller number of places that continue to attract new residents trib.al/GDlp3Ii 
A country without any population growth doesn't need to have a growing housing construction industry.
That will lead to consolidation among homebuilders and the building materials supply chain trib.al/GDlp3Ii
That will lead to consolidation among homebuilders and the building materials supply chain trib.al/GDlp3Ii
If you can't grow profits via greater sales volumes, you try to do it via reduced competition and cost cuts.
That means tightly controlled housing production, which will tend to keep housing supply in check and make housing more expensive trib.al/GDlp3Ii
That means tightly controlled housing production, which will tend to keep housing supply in check and make housing more expensive trib.al/GDlp3Ii
Housing dynamics are best viewed through the different metro areas that are growing and shrinking.
Of the 384 metro areas in the U.S., 72 had declining populations in the decade leading to 2020, according to the Census trib.al/GDlp3Ii
Of the 384 metro areas in the U.S., 72 had declining populations in the decade leading to 2020, according to the Census trib.al/GDlp3Ii
By population size, the largest of those shrinking metros are Akron, Ohio, Syracuse, New York, and Toledo, Ohio.
But people might not want to move if they interpret a declining population as a sign of fading prospects for the region trib.al/GDlp3Ii
But people might not want to move if they interpret a declining population as a sign of fading prospects for the region trib.al/GDlp3Ii
Only about 67 million Americans live in metros that grew at least 15% in the 2010's — places like Austin, Texas, Raleigh, North Carolina, and Boise, Idaho.
There's room for further growth in all of them, but we've seen affordability issues pop up trib.al/GDlp3Ii
There's room for further growth in all of them, but we've seen affordability issues pop up trib.al/GDlp3Ii
It's unclear how quickly infrastructure and homes can be built to keep pace with demand in fast-growing areas.
Existing residents increasingly tend to look unfavorably on the influx, which they blame for rising congestion, inflation and culture change trib.al/DCywRai
Existing residents increasingly tend to look unfavorably on the influx, which they blame for rising congestion, inflation and culture change trib.al/DCywRai
So while there will be plenty of affordable homes in Toledo and Akron, that won't help solve America's housing woes if it just means the demand in Austin and Boise — or wherever people really want to live — grows and grows trib.al/DCywRai
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