Hi @FrontiersIn : A paper of yours (editor: @GetchellNancy) missed some very important (and honestly basic) statistical issues, and is contributing to a narrative that is not supported by the paper.

#twitterpeerreview
#reviewer2stepsinanddoesthejob
#statstwitter
The paper should have been challenged on review:

* why not iterate 1 year vs other 5 years for all years '16-20 (resolves all issues)
* why not challenge the finding in "communication at 1 year" increasing for 2020 when clearly the significance comes from the low 2017 #

/2
Had it done so, the conclusion of the paper would be markedly different: "2020 showed similar and expected fluctuations as has been seen in the prior 5 years in all domains," and it would not be used as evidence that "pandemic measures effects harm child development"

/3
While I'm glad I spent my own time to statistically review the paper, I'm very disappointed that I had to and peer review missed this TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE of cherry-picking, selection bias, underfitting, and "hypothesis proving."

/4
Peer review is supposed to pick up these things. It's the whole point. When statistics are selected, the first question should be "was this the appropriate way to test the hypothesis?"

/5
Please rectify, and do better in the future.

This pandemic is swirling with misinformation and missed opportunities like this are tragic, and I've already seen this study gain ground since a misinformation spreader has misused it.
For future reference, I think the peer review about child development would do well with someone with some expertise in child development.
I think both reviewers (one with a strong stats background who probably wants a do-over if they see this, the other from a school of public health) would have benefited.

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More from @tylerblack32

31 Dec 21
The editorial process at @FrontiersIn makes a blunder. A study looking at "Developmental delays in children born during the pandemic" claims that fine motor delay and communication delay were seen comparing 2015-2019 & 2020.

This is very misleading. I see this mistake a lot.

/1
In fact, it is true that comparing 2020 to 2015-19 shows high anomalies in these two delays. But, if i compare 2016 to (2015, 2017-20) I would get the SAME significance testing. 2016 is worse than 2020 for fine motor and on par for communication.

/2
This is a case of a fallacy "cherry-picking."

The authors compared 2015-19 to 2020 but NOT:

2015 to 2016-20
2016 to 2015,2017-20
2017 to 2015-16, 2018-20
2018 to 2015-17, 2019-20
2019 to 2015-2018, 2020

And intentionally so, due to the cherrypicked "pandemic" situation.

/3
Read 12 tweets
30 Dec 21
Vaccines for kids against COVID are VERY SAFE:

* 8.7m vaccines given to 5-11y
* 100 "serious side effects" in VAERS (**NOT** causative link) including myocarditis (15), for a myocarditis rate of 1 per 540000 (unsecure VAERS)
* 2 deaths, neither causal

/1

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Using enrolled v-safe program, 42k kids received the vaccines. Normal, expected reactions occurred. 14 (0.02%) hospitaled following vaccine, and one of those was not actually hospitalized (error report).

No deaths. (AT LEAST 104 kids died of COVID during this time)

/2 Image
In another active surveillance program, out of 333,000 child vaccine doses given, NO cases of myocarditis 1-42 days after administration have been found. thats 0/333,000 doses.

/3
Read 5 tweets
30 Dec 21
Good lord this harrassing-women-scientists doofus is awful. Nobody is anti-school (except kids, sometimes, who Eli doesn't actually care about). There is good reason to advocate for not having places of >30 people in a room congregating during a spike in the pandemic

/1
I am not anti school. I DO think that school has many unaddressed PREPANDEMIC stressors that the pandemic has worsened, but I also am a huge geek and did >20 years of the damn thing, as did all the PhDs he mocks and derides.

/2
Schools can safely be closed during periods of high transmission, and when they are open they need to be **safer and less stressful to kids**.

Covid safe would mean ventilation, smaller classes, different ways of learning, outdoor activities, and access to virtual tech.

/3
Read 5 tweets
29 Dec 21
Lebron is 517 points from passing @kaj33 for all-time NBA/ABA points, combining playoffs + regular season. At his current pace, this occurs within 20 games.

A clear echelon of the top 5: Cap, LBJ, Karl, Kobe, MJ, with >3000 points to #6.

@KingJames #NBA75 #NBA #LakeShow
Lebron's about 100 games away from passing Kareem during the regular season, and absolutely dominates the record for the playoffs (nobody within 500 points).

/2
For active players gettin' there, KD likely cracks the top ten next season (98 games away at 27ppg). Carmelo could do it, but longevity will be the key, at his current rate of scoring he's likely 2 to 3 seasons away from the top ten.

/3
Read 5 tweets
28 Dec 21
The wonderful Messier Object M45 (The Seven Sisters, Pleiades). It's famous as the @Subaru_corp logo ("Subaru" is the Japanese name for this cluster!). It is the closest Messier Object to Earth! The bright stars lighten up the gas remanents of their formation.

#astrophotography
[/1]
I've revisited this object after a year of #astrophotography practice, and what a difference a year makes! The left is in Dec 2020 with my DSLR setup, on a tripod outside of Vancouver. The right is with my setup on my balcony in Downtown Vancouver.

[/2]
Read 9 tweets
23 Dec 21
Here is a "health care" check mark distributing misinformation on pediatric suicides freely and carelessly.

I am also attaching the graphic representation of the "astronomical spike" in pediatric suicides.

Btw, Kati, "commit suicide" is antiquated language please update.

/1
More graphic evidence of the "astronomical spike" in peds suicide in the past year. 🙄

10-14y suicides 1999-2020. Lower in 2020 than 2018 and not significantly different from 2019.

/2
Here is the thread where I break down pediatric suicides in 2020, fully establishing that what Kati said was misinformation.

/3

Read 8 tweets

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