🧵 A New Year's Eve tale:

June 1990
"Hello, could you tell me when the next train to Birmingham is?"
"One moment, ah yes, it's at 1:40."
"Brilliant!"
"People aren't usually this excited about Birmingham."
"I've got a date with Sam, I can't believe it!"
"Have fun young man."
1/12
July 1990
"Hello, are there any trains to Birmingham tonight?"
"Last one's at 8:00 but you'll have 2 changes."
"That's no problem, thanks so much!"
"It's Sam's young man isn't it?"
"Oh, was it you I spoke to last time? Sorry, I was a bit excited."
"Sounds like it went well."
2/12
July 1990
"Hello, when's the next train to Birmingham?"
"Another trip so soon? Sounds like the second date went well.
"What? Oh, yes, very well, thanks. I mean, sorry, seems a bit weird..."
"There's one at 5:20."
"Thanks. I'm Tom."
"Martin. Have fun Tom."
3/12
August 1990
"Hello Martin. It's Tom. Strange how I always I get you."
"Just coincidence. The Birmingham train again?"
"Uhm, yes please. You probably think I'm some sort of lovesick fool."
"I remember that feeling. The breathless thrill of possibility. 3:30 Tom."
"Cheers."
4/12
Sept 1990
"Hi Martin, when's the next Birmingham train?"
"In 30 minutes if you can make it. Things going well with you and Sam?"
"Yeah, brilliant. Last trip before we go off to Uni, Sam to Bristol, me to Cardiff. Won't be troubling you for a while."
"You're no trouble Tom."
5/12
October 1990
"Hello, could you tell me when the next train to Bristol is?"
"Hello Tom, you back in town? How's Uni?"
"Oh hi Martin, just popped back for mum's birthday."
"And going to see Sam?"
"Yeah, Sam's been really busy so it's been a while."
"4:30's your next one."
6/12
December 1990
"Hello...(sob)...could you tell me when...(sob)...the next train from Bristol to Merthyr Tydfil is?"
"Tom? Are you ok?"
"Martin? I'm sorry...I meant to call the Bristol station..."
"It's ok, I can look it up for you. Just hold on."
"Thanks Martin"
7/12
"You've got a bit of a wait Tom, next one's in 2 hours."
"That's ok Martin, I haven't got anything to do."
"Is everything ok Tom?"
"(sob), Sam dumped me."
"I'm so sorry Tom, that always hurts."
"(sob)"
"Get yourself home and your mum will look after you."
8/12
"Mum doesn't know about me and Sam."
"But she'll understand-"
"Sam's a boy Martin."

"Doesn't hurt any different I guess but it must be lonelier. I'm sorry Tom."
"Yeah. Thanks Martin."
9/10
December 1994, NYE
"Hello, is Martin there?"
"I'm afraid not. Can I help?"
"Oh,ok. Could you tell me when the next train to London is?"
"I think you've got the wrong number, we're 63947, the station is 63948."
"But I've always called this number. And spoken to a Martin."
10/12
"That was my dad. People used to call his number by mistake so he kept a timetable by the phone. He passed away last year."
"I'm so sorry. He was a lovely man."
"Thank you. Let me see if I can find the timetable."
"It's ok, Robert & I will just try our luck. Thank you."
11/12
In memory of Dave's dad, who was a lovely man.
Happy New Year folks
12/12
Hi folks, thanks for all the likes & the lovely replies. This isn't a true story, it was just inspired by Dave's tweet about his dad. I thought the last tweet would have made that clear but sorry to everyone I misled. The really beautiful story though is the one in Dave's tweet.

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More from @HZiauddeen

2 Jan
🧵COVID-19 : Thinking about the longer-term

Thanks for sending me this 🧵 @timcolbourn. I'm replying here with some thoughts, sorry for the delay in getting back to you.
Anyone else reading this, I've let Tim know I'll be replying via QT to make it easier to 🧵
1/26
I think there are some additional factors to be considered and I'd put them under 3 categories:
1. The real world complexity of ongoing high transmission.
2. The health economic (& broader economic) costs of ongoing high transmission.
3. Messaging & intervening.
2/26
Real world complexity:
-I think we need to consider this as a complex dynamic problem, with potential for rapid, large magnitude changes at different local-global levels e.g large superspreader events, national oxygen shortages, new variants with significant immune escape.
3/26
Read 26 tweets
31 Dec 21
This is an excellent 🧵about this new paper led by @emcat1.
@dgurdasani explains the details much better that I ever could but one important takeaway from this is that Omicron is a rather different virus from Delta in key aspects.
What are the implications of this?
1/8
1. We should be careful when we extrapolate from what we know about delta and previous variants, and from what we know so far about differences between Omicron and Delta.
2/8
2. A virus capable of such plasticity is fascinating but it means that there is a lot we still have to learn about Omicron and we should be cautious.
3. Boosters are important, please get yours if you can.
3/8
Read 8 tweets
28 Dec 21
🧵 'What's the alternative?!'/'What's your alternative?!'

This question came up several times in the replies to this 🧵 so I'll take it in good faith and answer it. I'll be very clear and explicit so that you won't have to presume what I really mean or want, I'll tell you.
1/24
Here goes:
First up, there is NO zero-inconvenience option for controlling the pandemic.
We have an airborne virus that is highly transmissible and can cause severe illness and death.
There is no option that will mitigate the impact of the pandemic without inconvenience.
2/24
I say zero-inconvenience very deliberately because all through this pandemic, measures like masks have been deemed an unacceptable inconvenience.

So what is the alternative that many of us (I am not even a bit player) have been fighting for?
3/24
Read 24 tweets
28 Dec 21
This thread by @BallouxFrancois troubles me for several reasons, first and foremost because he is now advising our health secretary Sajid Javid.
The central message of his 🧵is that COVID is inevitable, we're all going to get it, let's just get on with life.
1/23
To be fair, he's not saying anything here that he hasn't said before. It is more troubling because he seems to have the ear of a govt (& media) that doesn't want to do v much to control the pandemic.
I'd like to draw your attention to the seeming reasonableness of the 🧵.
2/23
He says:
'This is not an easy message to convey',
'it gives me no joy to announce (this terrible news)',
'in an ideal world I wish we could have'
'Pretending we remain in control, of sorts, is just becoming too costly'
3/23
Read 24 tweets
24 Dec 21
🧵 COVID-19: The unbearable 'mildness' of Omicron

The 'Omicron is mild' narrative was seeded very early and is being heavily pushed at the moment by the usual scientists, journalists & politicians.

Students of context should be cautious on these grounds alone.
(1/15)
I'll link to 🧵s by much smarter people for detailed information but here's a summary.
-Omicron seems, at best, slightly less bad than delta, which remains very bad.
-Omicron can escape immunity acquired from vaccination/previous infection to a significant extent.
(2/15)
-This means that if you are vaccinated or you were previously infected with delta or other variants (vax/inf), it will not protect you from catching Omicron like it would have protected you from catching delta or catching delta again.
(3/15)
Read 15 tweets
22 Dec 21
Brief update
🧵COVID-19 in the UK: We're SO SO fucked

This last thread👇was written in the golden days when daily case numbers were only in excess of 70,000. Since then a lot has happened and in response, the govt has taken masterful, decisive and definitive inaction.
1/16
Here are our case numbers over the last week:
14/12: 59610
15/12: 78,610
16/12: 88,376
17/12: 93,045
18/12: 90,418
19/12: 82,886
20/12: 91,743
21/12: 90,629

These numbers may plateau soon because we are close to maxing out our testing capacity.
2/16
Things are very grim indeed.
The best case scenario SAGE models are horrifying.
The worst case scenario models are to awful to even contemplate.

The govt has taken the shortest route to find a solution and done away with the issue of contemplation.
3/16
Read 16 tweets

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