Eric Xu 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 1 8 tweets 3 min read
Using this thread to record books I read in 2022. More to come.
First book of the year.

A conflict of visions by Thomas Sowell.

分析框架类似于性本善或恶之辩,但用人的认知能力的 constrain 表述,更符合认识论/epistemological 范式。 Image
Second book 📕 of the year: Narrative and Numbers. Image
Book #3. “Risk Society” by Ulrich Beck.

This is my second pass. This is not an easy one to read. Need to revisit it again. Image
3D Printing Failures. #book

This is a fun yet dense read.

It is amazing a 3D printer could actually work, because so many things could go wrong. Image
📚
Coding Literacy: How Computer Programming Is Changing Writing

“Literacy is both functional and rhetorical”. Image
📚
The Supreme Court in the Intimate Lives of Americans Image
📚
Why Nations Fail

Perspective from New Institutional Economics. Similar to North’s framework. 3/5. Image

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More from @xleaps

Feb 28
懒得写长文了,用中文简单说一下。

普金正在经历“民主的棘轮”(不必搜出处,我发明的词)。这个棘轮一旦转起来有了惯性,会随时间自动绞杀普金。

1. 普金的算计是。西方的政客效率低,只会动嘴,因此只要生米做成熟饭,回头来谈判条件肯定对自己有利。这个判断,至少在 2/24 前无法证否。
2. 起初,所有的人都不知道乌克兰可以抵抗多久。不过半年前,阿富汗被塔利班势如破竹攻下,总统逃亡,大量武器装备落入塔利班之手。在这种不确定下,军援乌克兰有着巨大的沉没风险。

然而,乌克兰居然久攻不下。泽连斯基一夜成为英雄。此时,援助和制裁的沉没风险就被极大消解了。
3. 当援助和制裁的道义和安全回报高于沉没风险时,这些援助就自然来了。所谓的自救者人恒救之,乌克兰给出了这个成语的最佳诠释。

回到“民主的棘轮”。因为民主国家的决策过程是一个各方利弊对齐的过程。它慢,看上去低效,但一旦利弊对齐做出决策,就如棘轮一样,只进不退。
Read 9 tweets
Feb 27
The ratchet!

As long as the invasion is ongoing, the West has the obligation to do something, anything, everyday.

Given time, the ratchet will choke Russia hard, till it taps out. Oh judo!

Thanks to the resistance of Ukraine, time is their friend.
Oh armchair geopolitical analyst hat on:

Prior to the invasion, there was no clear signal if Ukraine would fail fast like Afghanistan. Thus I assume the west didn't want to throw a lot of resources at the problem. Plus wordcel politicians like to talk as opposed to do things.
UA's determination & leadership distinguished itself from those uncertainty. The clear signal propagates through the dysfunctional Western political system.

The politician's syllogism worked at UA's favor here, due to the time it earned through fierce battles.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 7
我想就算对中文再不敏感的人到现在也熟悉了一个句式:“应 X 尽 X”。这里 X 是一个动词。这个句式是习大大首先使用的,目前已经成为一个政策原则。

其实这也是铁拳刚性的一个定义。

从这个定义出发有时候可以听风就是雨可以做一些金融操作,让习大大帮构建已经到来的未来。

我话就说到这里了。
我想从词源和流变角度 (etymology) 去考察这个问题会很有意义。精力和能力有限只能列个大概。

这个句式起源于武汉新冠肺炎爆发时的收治政策,即“应收尽收”。2020年2月3日首次提出,后来作为武汉建立方舱医院等一系列决定的政策依据。

本来仅是一项应急政策,但习后来一系列的讲话强化了它的传播。
然后这个句式就“出圈”了。以下是我收集的和新冠肺炎无关的一些:

* 对演艺界偷逃税要“应罚尽罚”
* 山东:向社会组织购买服务“应买尽买”
* 国资委:确保中央企业对民营企业欠款应付尽付
Read 4 tweets

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