Value Investor's Edge #shipping models gained 136.2% in 2021.
We beat the S&P 500 by 109% (4.7x) & Russell 2K by 121% (9.3x) + delivered a 6th straight year of sector alpha.
New 2022 models are now live! Two week research free trials available this week: mintzmyer.com
6yr performance based on tracked trades (2016-2018) and model portfolios (2019-2021). We switched to model portfolios in '19 for ease of tracking and updating. SEA ETF for industry comps 2016-2019 and for 2020-2021 we averaged US+Oslo #shipping stocks since there's no large ETF.
Our most profitable model position YTD was $ZIM, which wasn't included at the start of the year since it wasn't public yet, but I personally bought $11-$14 post-IPO and we added it to our Speculative model with a 2x weighting in our February 2nd rebalancing at $14.11.
Weightings were shifted around throughout the year in each monthly update, but $ZIM remained in at least one of our two #shipping models all year. From initial addition at $14.11, $ZIM provided a total return of 349%.
Our most disappointing selection was $OSG (1 of 13 total initial top picks for 2021). Despite nailing the special situation bet with a $3.00 takeover bid, talks fell apart on the low-ball offer and $OSG provided a total YTD loss of 10.5%.
$OSG was our only net loser in 2021.
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@VadimPlz@ClassicValueInv Dry bulk is much different for several reasons. 1- Ships are built to do 25-30+ yrs. Besides fuel burn there is almost 0 difference between a 26y or a 2y ship. // Tankers start to get passed over 15+ and are generally avoided 20+. Surveys for tankers 17.5+ are very expensive.
@VadimPlz@ClassicValueInv Dry bulk demand core is iron ore and coal, both of which are driven almost entirely by Asian growth and stimulus. Coal future looks weak. Iron is purely Brazil-China. Iron looked good in ‘19 then singlehandedly got disrupted by $VALE. COVID wrecked ‘20.
@VadimPlz@ClassicValueInv The dry bulk fleet is not particularly old nor is the orderbook super small. @JamesCatlin76 has been hammering on this for a couple years. Dry bulk orders have gotten massive Chinese stimulus via Valemax and VLOC programs.