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J Mintzmyer Profile picture
J Mintzmyer
@mintzmyer
Maritime shipping researcher, trade/sanctions PhD from @Kennedy_School. @Af_academy + @UofMaryland grad. @Shipping_VIE Founder. Follow for #shipping updates.
7 subscribers
Jan 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
First market takes (hot takes?) of 2023: $SPY $QQQ look like the biggest bubbles left. Bombed-out small caps look far more attractive. I'd even take $ARKK vs. $SPY this year.

Other huge remaining bubble is US housing mkt...

That said, retail investors are very bearish (1/4): Hard to fully measure this sentiment, but I think the collapse of $ARKK and other 'fanboy' stocks like $TSLA reflect a lot.

Reading WSB or browsing FinTwit for awhile is getting increasing depressing.

Meanwhile blue chips + big tech are still 30x+ P/E?!

What gives? (2/4)
Jul 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Been getting a lot of questions on $ZIM. The latest @Shipping_VIE 'fair value estimate' was $78/sh based on excess cycle FCF (thru Q1-23) + residual value. Reiterating that today, you can hold me to it.

*Personally* own no $ZIM as I vastly prefer the risk/reward in $DAC $GSL. Difficult to adj the 'fair value estimate' without more info on freight rates into the strong season (July->Nov), + $ZIM guidance on volumes, cost structure, etc.

Lots of people talking about 'rates crashing.' Rates are insanely strong. Ppl just don't understand seasonality.
Jan 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Value Investor's Edge #shipping models gained 136.2% in 2021.

We beat the S&P 500 by 109% (4.7x) & Russell 2K by 121% (9.3x) + delivered a 6th straight year of sector alpha.

New 2022 models are now live! Two week research free trials available this week: mintzmyer.com 6yr performance based on tracked trades (2016-2018) and model portfolios (2019-2021). We switched to model portfolios in '19 for ease of tracking and updating. SEA ETF for industry comps 2016-2019 and for 2020-2021 we averaged US+Oslo #shipping stocks since there's no large ETF.
May 17, 2020 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
@VadimPlz @ClassicValueInv Dry bulk is much different for several reasons.
1- Ships are built to do 25-30+ yrs. Besides fuel burn there is almost 0 difference between a 26y or a 2y ship. // Tankers start to get passed over 15+ and are generally avoided 20+. Surveys for tankers 17.5+ are very expensive. @VadimPlz @ClassicValueInv Dry bulk demand core is iron ore and coal, both of which are driven almost entirely by Asian growth and stimulus. Coal future looks weak. Iron is purely Brazil-China. Iron looked good in ‘19 then singlehandedly got disrupted by $VALE. COVID wrecked ‘20.