Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
J Mintzmyer Profile picture
J Mintzmyer
@mintzmyer
Maritime shipping researcher, trade/sanctions PhD from @Kennedy_School. Founder of @Shipping_VIE. Follow for #shipping market updates.
7 subscribers
Jan 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
First market takes (hot takes?) of 2023: $SPY $QQQ look like the biggest bubbles left. Bombed-out small caps look far more attractive. I'd even take $ARKK vs. $SPY this year.

Other huge remaining bubble is US housing mkt...

That said, retail investors are very bearish (1/4): Hard to fully measure this sentiment, but I think the collapse of $ARKK and other 'fanboy' stocks like $TSLA reflect a lot.

Reading WSB or browsing FinTwit for awhile is getting increasing depressing.

Meanwhile blue chips + big tech are still 30x+ P/E?!

What gives? (2/4)
Jul 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Been getting a lot of questions on $ZIM. The latest @Shipping_VIE 'fair value estimate' was $78/sh based on excess cycle FCF (thru Q1-23) + residual value. Reiterating that today, you can hold me to it.

*Personally* own no $ZIM as I vastly prefer the risk/reward in $DAC $GSL. Difficult to adj the 'fair value estimate' without more info on freight rates into the strong season (July->Nov), + $ZIM guidance on volumes, cost structure, etc.

Lots of people talking about 'rates crashing.' Rates are insanely strong. Ppl just don't understand seasonality.
Jan 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Value Investor's Edge #shipping models gained 136.2% in 2021.

We beat the S&P 500 by 109% (4.7x) & Russell 2K by 121% (9.3x) + delivered a 6th straight year of sector alpha.

New 2022 models are now live! Two week research free trials available this week: mintzmyer.com 6yr performance based on tracked trades (2016-2018) and model portfolios (2019-2021). We switched to model portfolios in '19 for ease of tracking and updating. SEA ETF for industry comps 2016-2019 and for 2020-2021 we averaged US+Oslo #shipping stocks since there's no large ETF.
May 17, 2020 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
@VadimPlz @ClassicValueInv Dry bulk is much different for several reasons.
1- Ships are built to do 25-30+ yrs. Besides fuel burn there is almost 0 difference between a 26y or a 2y ship. // Tankers start to get passed over 15+ and are generally avoided 20+. Surveys for tankers 17.5+ are very expensive. @VadimPlz @ClassicValueInv Dry bulk demand core is iron ore and coal, both of which are driven almost entirely by Asian growth and stimulus. Coal future looks weak. Iron is purely Brazil-China. Iron looked good in ‘19 then singlehandedly got disrupted by $VALE. COVID wrecked ‘20.