Buffett's letters taught me more about investing than any business school ever could.
Even after investing for 14 years, I uncover new insights every time I reread his letters.
Recently, I reread his letters from 1977 to 2020 for a third time.
Here are my key insights:
1. Moat is NEVER stagnant
A company's competitive position either grows stronger or weaker each day.
Widening the moat must always take precedence over short-term targets.
2. Commodity businesses
A business without moat will have its returns competed away.
Regardless of improvement, your competitors will quickly copy your advantage away.
Where returns on capital is dismal, reinvestment will only destroy value.
3. The flywheel effect
Buffett was preaching about the flywheel effect before it became cool.
Back then, newspapers were similar to today's platform businesses like Amazon, Meta, and App Store.
More readers beget more advertisers beget more readers.
4. Operating leverage
Companies with high fixed costs and low variable costs will see earnings rise faster than revenue.
However, it cuts both ways.
It becomes a disaster when revenue is declining.
Check out my article on how operating leverage works: shorturl.at/cnJUY
5. Fundamentals of investing
•Know your circle of competence
•Focus on future cash flows
•Refrain from price speculation
•Ignore volatility
•Macro is a waste of time
6. Mr. Market
Everyday Mr. Market will show up to name a price to buy or sell.
When optimistic, he sees only favorable factors and names a high price.
When pessimistic, he sees nothing but trouble and names a low price.
Mr. Market is here to serve you, not to guide you.
7. What is risk?
Risk does not come from price volatility.
Nor could it be managed away by simply diversifying.
Focus on whether after-tax proceeds generated by the investment provide at least as much purchasing power as the investor started with, plus a modest interest rate.
8. Growth vs Value Investing
Thinking that stocks with low PE, PB or high dividend yield is a value stock is erroneous thinking.
Likewise, a high PE, PB or low dividend yield might be a value purchase.
Instead, focus on the return on capital vs the cost of capital.
9. Durable businesses
Similar to Jeff Bezos, Buffett like to focus on what doesn't change for a business.
For Amazon's customers, it is low prices.
For Sees' candies, it is for the premium brand.
Technology changes, but motivations less so.
10. Investing in "The Inevitables"
Between fast growth or a more certain growth, Buffett will always choose the latter.
Without durability, fast growth in the early years are less ideal investments.
11. Investing in quality
Over the long-run, the returns of your investment will mirror the underlying business return on capital.
Even if a business is slightly overvalued, Buffett will rather hold on to it than to switch for a cheaper, lower-quality business.
12. Deep value investing
Investing in ugly businesses simply because of its price is foolish.
Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.
Unless you are able to liquidate the company, you'll slowly see value evaporate.
13. Leverage
Don't do it.
Don't expose yourself to the possibility of being wiped out.
In investing, a settled mind is crucial for making decisions.
14. Share buybacks
Makes sense only when:
•The company has enough fund to maintain competitive position
•There's no where else to reinvest at attractive returns
•The company's stock is selling below intrinsic value
15. Not all earnings are created equal
An asset heavy business that requires frequent reinvestment to maintain its competitive position doesn't have "real earnings".
Bulk of its returns will be set aside simply to maintain its competitive positioning and cannot be distributed.
16. EPS is misleading
When evaluating an acquisition, management often justify it with EPS accretion.
But near-term EPS is of no significance.
What really counts is whether a merger is dilutive or anti-dilutive in terms of intrinsic business value.
17. Inflation
Asset-light companies that have pricing power will benefit from inflation.
On the other hand, companies that have to invest in machineries, plants and properties to stay relevant will suffer in periods of high inflation.
This is the end of my key takeaways from Buffett's letters!
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Fundsmith is on track for its 5th year of underperformance.
In a recent interview, Terry Smith explains the reasons why—and what he thinks is wrong with the market today.
Key insights: 🧵
Smith breaks down the underperformance into distinct phases:
2022-23: Interest rates rose from 0% to 5%
2023: Magnificent Seven concentration
2024: AI boom/hype
Throughout: Passive fund flows
He claims each one is a headwind for quality investors.
On interest rates:
Quality companies trade at higher valuations because more cash flows are in the future. When rates rise, they behave like long-dated bonds—they get hit harder.
"When rates go up, our type of companies suffer in share price terms and companies which we wouldn't own which are very cyclical or not very good actually relatively benefit."
Eric Seufert and Ben Thompson just released an interview that reframes AI monetization strategy.
Why affiliate links fail, why "agentic commerce" won't happen, the Netflix lesson OpenAI is ignoring, and Meta's first real bear case in years.
What stood out: 🧵
Context: Everyone assumes ChatGPT will monetize through affiliate links (Walmart, Etsy partnerships).
Seufert's argument: this is the wrong model. And the urgency is real—"OpenAI needs to launch its ads product today, they cannot wait."
Why affiliate advertising is wrong for ChatGPT:
1. It only monetizes queries with commercial intent
Seufert: "If you're using ads, you get to monetize everything because it's every single engagement. If you're just using affiliate links, you can only monetize the ones that are like, 'What's the DSLR camera?'."
This is what happens when you answer the "tell me about your weakness" question too honestly.
PayPal CEO Alex Chriss at Citi's FinTech Conference laid out the challenges so clearly it spooked the market.
Here's what he said: 🧵
1/ Consumer spending deteriorated suddenly mid-September and it's persisting into Q4.
Chriss: "We started to see a slowdown on consumers, particularly around discretionary spending, retail and really in middle to low income brackets, which play a significant role in PayPal."
The weakness is concentrated: "If we look at some of our cohorts of higher income spenders, they're still spending. But we are seeing pressure for middle to lower income."
Q4 branded checkout expected to grow slower than Q3 as a result.
2/ The branded checkout rollout is taking much longer than expected.
Only 20% complete after significant time. Chriss admitted: "That's probably the piece I underestimated the most in terms of just how long it would take to get that experience out to customers."
The timeline? "We're just going to have to go through the hard work over the next few quarters and maybe even a couple of years to get through our backlog of merchants."
Years, not quarters. That's a meaningful delay.
Why so slow? Technical debt worse than realized.
Chriss: "We have 15-plus years of really bespoke integrations across our merchant base. This was something I personally didn't appreciate when I got here of just how many different integration patterns there have been."