Thomas Chua Profile picture
Jan 1, 2022 26 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Buffett's letters taught me more about investing than any business school ever could.

Even after investing for 14 years, I uncover new insights every time I reread his letters.

Recently, I reread his letters from 1977 to 2020 for a third time.

Here are my key insights: Image
1. Moat is NEVER stagnant

A company's competitive position either grows stronger or weaker each day.

Widening the moat must always take precedence over short-term targets. Image
2. Commodity businesses

A business without moat will have its returns competed away.

Regardless of improvement, your competitors will quickly copy your advantage away.

Where returns on capital is dismal, reinvestment will only destroy value. Image
3. The flywheel effect

Buffett was preaching about the flywheel effect before it became cool.

Back then, newspapers were similar to today's platform businesses like Amazon, Meta, and App Store.

More readers beget more advertisers beget more readers. Image
4. Operating leverage

Companies with high fixed costs and low variable costs will see earnings rise faster than revenue.

However, it cuts both ways.

It becomes a disaster when revenue is declining.

Check out my article on how operating leverage works: shorturl.at/cnJUY Image
5. Fundamentals of investing

•Know your circle of competence
•Focus on future cash flows
•Refrain from price speculation
•Ignore volatility
•Macro is a waste of time Image
6. Mr. Market

Everyday Mr. Market will show up to name a price to buy or sell.

When optimistic, he sees only favorable factors and names a high price.

When pessimistic, he sees nothing but trouble and names a low price.

Mr. Market is here to serve you, not to guide you. Image
7. What is risk?

Risk does not come from price volatility.

Nor could it be managed away by simply diversifying.

Focus on whether after-tax proceeds generated by the investment provide at least as much purchasing power as the investor started with, plus a modest interest rate. Image
8. Growth vs Value Investing

Thinking that stocks with low PE, PB or high dividend yield is a value stock is erroneous thinking.

Likewise, a high PE, PB or low dividend yield might be a value purchase.

Instead, focus on the return on capital vs the cost of capital. Image
9. Durable businesses

Similar to Jeff Bezos, Buffett like to focus on what doesn't change for a business.

For Amazon's customers, it is low prices.

For Sees' candies, it is for the premium brand.

Technology changes, but motivations less so. Image
10. Investing in "The Inevitables"

Between fast growth or a more certain growth, Buffett will always choose the latter.

Without durability, fast growth in the early years are less ideal investments. Image
11. Investing in quality

Over the long-run, the returns of your investment will mirror the underlying business return on capital.

Even if a business is slightly overvalued, Buffett will rather hold on to it than to switch for a cheaper, lower-quality business. Image
12. Deep value investing

Investing in ugly businesses simply because of its price is foolish.

Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.

Unless you are able to liquidate the company, you'll slowly see value evaporate. Image
13. Leverage

Don't do it.

Don't expose yourself to the possibility of being wiped out.

In investing, a settled mind is crucial for making decisions. Image
14. Share buybacks

Makes sense only when:
•The company has enough fund to maintain competitive position
•There's no where else to reinvest at attractive returns
•The company's stock is selling below intrinsic value Image
15. Not all earnings are created equal

An asset heavy business that requires frequent reinvestment to maintain its competitive position doesn't have "real earnings".

Bulk of its returns will be set aside simply to maintain its competitive positioning and cannot be distributed. Image
16. EPS is misleading

When evaluating an acquisition, management often justify it with EPS accretion.

But near-term EPS is of no significance.

What really counts is whether a merger is dilutive or anti-dilutive in terms of intrinsic business value. Image
17. Inflation

Asset-light companies that have pricing power will benefit from inflation.

On the other hand, companies that have to invest in machineries, plants and properties to stay relevant will suffer in periods of high inflation. Image
This is the end of my key takeaways from Buffett's letters!

I hope you enjoyed it.

If you like this, follow me here @SteadyCompound

I write about investment concepts, business breakdowns and growth philosophies.
If you have enjoyed this thread, you're gonna love my newsletter where I curate 3 ideas on investing and growth philosophies.

Every week.

steadycompounding.com
You can read all of Buffett's letters here for free! berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letter…

Personally, I prefer reading from @CunninghamProf book The Essays of Warren Buffett because of its neat categorization.

Get it here: amzn.to/3sSXtg6
Thanks for letting me know the short url on operating leverage isn't working!

Here is the article on operating leverage: steadycompounding.com/investing/oper…
Get access to in-depth investment research on high-quality businesses.

The research is only for long-term investors who want to gain a deeper understanding of businesses, their competitive advantages, risks, and valuations.

steadycompounding.com/membership/?123
Buffett's 2021 letter incoming!

Here are the key insights:

New thread:

How Buffett generates income and float on $KO by using options!

Great to see that $BRK AGM has returned to Ohama!

Check out my key takeaways from $BRK 2022 AGM:

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More from @SteadyCompound

Dec 14, 2025
1/ Howard Marks just dropped 5 decades of investing wisdom in one conversation.

5 market calls in 50 years. $218 billion under management. Zero blowups.

Here's what separates him from everyone else: 🧵 Image
2/ The dinner that changed everything:

In 1990, a pension fund manager told Marks his portfolio stayed in the 27th-47th percentile for 14 straight years.

Sounds mediocre.

But over 14 years total? 4th percentile.

How? He never blew up while everyone else occasionally did.
3/ This became Oaktree's motto:

"If you can avoid the losers, the winners will take care of themselves."

Most investors shoot for the stars and occasionally shoot themselves in the foot.

Once you have a big loss, it takes years to recover. The math is brutal.
Read 25 tweets
Dec 10, 2025
Just finished Gavin Baker's latest interview with Patrick O'Shaughnessy.

It's one of the most insight-dense conversations on AI infrastructure economics I've encountered.

Key insights that matter for investors 🧵 Image
First, the big one: Gemini 3 confirmed pre-training scaling laws are still intact.

This matters because no one actually knows why scaling laws work. It's an empirical observation, not a theoretical guarantee.

Every confirmation that it still holds changes forward projections. Image
Here's what most people missed:

Between mid-2024 and now, there was no way to push pre-training forward. You can't get more than ~200,000 Hoppers coherent, and Blackwell was delayed.

Reasoning models bridged an 18-month gap where progress would have otherwise stalled. Image
Read 16 tweets
Dec 9, 2025
Everyone's blaming Chipotle's 44% decline on Slop Bowls.

The real threat? Casual dining.

A former Regional VP who ran 415 restaurants shared what management won't tell you: Image
Chipotle's average check: $18

Chili's: $21

The old advantage was no tipping. But Chipotle has embedded tipping into card readers, making it almost impossible not to tip.

That $3 gap with casual dining has nearly disappeared. Image
On Cava: Management points to Cava's slowdown as proof it's an industry problem.

"See, it's not us, it's the industry."

But internally? They'd never accept that excuse from their own people. Image
Read 13 tweets
Nov 26, 2025
Fundsmith is on track for its 5th year of underperformance.

In a recent interview, Terry Smith explains the reasons why—and what he thinks is wrong with the market today.

Key insights: 🧵 Image
Smith breaks down the underperformance into distinct phases:

2022-23: Interest rates rose from 0% to 5%
2023: Magnificent Seven concentration
2024: AI boom/hype
Throughout: Passive fund flows

He claims each one is a headwind for quality investors. Image
On interest rates:

Quality companies trade at higher valuations because more cash flows are in the future. When rates rise, they behave like long-dated bonds—they get hit harder.

"When rates go up, our type of companies suffer in share price terms and companies which we wouldn't own which are very cyclical or not very good actually relatively benefit."Image
Read 15 tweets
Nov 23, 2025
Eric Seufert and Ben Thompson just released an interview that reframes AI monetization strategy.

Why affiliate links fail, why "agentic commerce" won't happen, the Netflix lesson OpenAI is ignoring, and Meta's first real bear case in years.

What stood out: 🧵
Context: Everyone assumes ChatGPT will monetize through affiliate links (Walmart, Etsy partnerships).

Seufert's argument: this is the wrong model. And the urgency is real—"OpenAI needs to launch its ads product today, they cannot wait."
Why affiliate advertising is wrong for ChatGPT:

1. It only monetizes queries with commercial intent

Seufert: "If you're using ads, you get to monetize everything because it's every single engagement. If you're just using affiliate links, you can only monetize the ones that are like, 'What's the DSLR camera?'."Image
Read 18 tweets
Nov 21, 2025
This is what happens when you answer the "tell me about your weakness" question too honestly.

PayPal CEO Alex Chriss at Citi's FinTech Conference laid out the challenges so clearly it spooked the market.

Here's what he said: 🧵 Image
1/ Consumer spending deteriorated suddenly mid-September and it's persisting into Q4.

Chriss: "We started to see a slowdown on consumers, particularly around discretionary spending, retail and really in middle to low income brackets, which play a significant role in PayPal."

The weakness is concentrated: "If we look at some of our cohorts of higher income spenders, they're still spending. But we are seeing pressure for middle to lower income."

Q4 branded checkout expected to grow slower than Q3 as a result.
2/ The branded checkout rollout is taking much longer than expected.

Only 20% complete after significant time. Chriss admitted: "That's probably the piece I underestimated the most in terms of just how long it would take to get that experience out to customers."

The timeline? "We're just going to have to go through the hard work over the next few quarters and maybe even a couple of years to get through our backlog of merchants."

Years, not quarters. That's a meaningful delay.

Why so slow? Technical debt worse than realized.

Chriss: "We have 15-plus years of really bespoke integrations across our merchant base. This was something I personally didn't appreciate when I got here of just how many different integration patterns there have been."
Read 8 tweets

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