Now that it's officially 2022, it's time for the midterms to kick into full gear! Republicans are bullish on their chances and, judging by the wave of Democratic retirements (nbcnews.com/politics/congr…), so are Democrats.
We all know by now that one of the golden rules of American politics is that the President's party loses seats in their first midterm (presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/dat…), and with Democrats already holding extremely slim majorities, their hold on power is hanging by a thread.
But Democrats have a couple of things going for them that could help them buck history:
First, the Senate map actually looks good for Democrats. Republicans are defending 20 seats and Democrats 14 (cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate…). Moreover, Republicans are defending two seats in states that Biden won while Democrats are defending zero seats in states that Trump won.
I'm not saying Democrats can't lose the Senate, just that if they lose the Senate they've almost certainly already lost the House that's the least of their worries.
Second, with a little bit of luck we'll have COVID behind us and the economy roaring again by November. That should help put some wind behind the Democrats's backs – so long as they make sure to get credit for it.
We're on track to have more than 80% of the country vaccinated by November (npr.org/sections/healt…), as well as a good portion of the world, and inflation is expected to fall precipitously this year.
The latest projection (cnbc.com/2021/12/15/the…) from the Fed had core PCE falling to 2.6% by the end of the year.
Third, the Republican party is tying itself to an unpopular President who's voters only seem to only come out when he's on the ballot. That's bad politics, which Democrats can take advantage of.
Democrats need to continue challenging Republicans on the extremism within their ranks and their refusal to disavow Trump. Most voters don't like Trump.
Democrats should take advantage of that fact and remind voters that Republicans are the ones who empowered Trump, appeased Trump, and are ultimately responsible for January 6th.
Thankfully it looks like the 1/6 Committee is going to get to the bottom of things, and while the investigation should not be done with the aim of helping Democrats, it nonetheless will remind voters of what Republicans created.
A note on Virgina: There's a risk of Democrats learning the wrong lessons from Virginia. The lesson isn't to not talk about Trump, it's to do so wisely.
Instead of trying to tie every single person with an (R) in front of their name to Trump, Democrats should simply challenge them on some of Trump's more anti-democratic tendencies and remind voters that, with Trump likely to run again in 2024, who counts the votes really matters.
Finally, Democrats have a President who's intent on doing popular things. This is a good political strategy (nytimes.com/2021/10/08/opi….) and should help them heading into November.
So if Democrats hope to win in 2022 they need to get COVID and the economy under control, remind voters of Republicans' extremism problem, and continue to govern effectively and do popular things. But there's one more piece to the puzzle: democracy reform.
Democrats need to reform democracy so they can govern effectively and, more importantly, protect the country from the anti-democratic forces threatening to pull it down. That means reforming the filibuster (filibusterreform.org) first and foremost.
In today's politics it's difficult for any President to live up to expectations when the out-party has a blanket veto over their entire agenda and no incentive to work with them.
I've often said that my goal for 2022 is for Democrats to lose because they deserve it, not because the system is rigged against them. Yes that's a low bar, but it hasn't always been clear that they would be able to meet it.
While it looks like Democrats are going to dodge a bullet with redistricting (
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1476246904673644555), there's still plenty of voter suppression and election subversion laws (brennancenter.org/our-work/resea…) being introduced and passed in states that could make it more difficult for…
…Democrats to win.
Passing the Freedom to Vote Act, the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, as well as updating the Electoral Count Act (cato.org/blog/republica…) are key, not only to Democrats holding onto their slim majorities, but to America remaining a democracy (obviously an ECA update…
…won't affect the midterms but it's important nonetheless).
So will Democrats hold onto the House and Senate? Probably not, but all hope is not lost. In 1998 and 2002 the President's party bucked history and actually gained seats in the midterms. In 1998 it was backlash to Republicans' impeachment of Bill Clinton.
Democrats can hope for a similar backlash to Republicans' continued embrace of Trump and Trump-backed extremists. In 2002 it was because of 9/11 and the rally around the flag effect.
While it's hard to see Americans rallying around the flag for anything these days, maybe coming out of the COVID emergency will foster some similar goodwill (I'm not holding my breath).
Or maybe pure desperation will put Democrats over the top. The fact is, if they lose in November, they're likely to be out of power for a very long time (nytimes.com/2021/11/12/us/…).
This thread can be read here: wonknessblog.wordpress.com/2022/01/01/its…
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