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Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
@ZiadFazel
Jan 2, 2022 • 13 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
#COVID19AB 🧵
CMOH Spin v UK & Denmark Reality

Yesterday, the CMOH made some claims about the health system impact in the UK that are demonstrably untrue, at least with the UK's official stats that were available at the time.

Let's look into this...

alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…
"In countries like the UK and Denmark, where Omicron is spreading widely, their early reports of health system impact indicate that hospital and ICU admissions are not rising as quickly as in previous waves."

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Ahem.
Week-over-week in the UK:
• cases are up 48%
• hospital admissions are up 50%
• hospital stats as of 27 Dec were avail to CMOH by 31 Dec

Does that spike ↘️ look like "hospital and ICU admissions are not rising as quickly as in previous waves" to you?
"It is also important to note that in both of those countries, their booster program has reached more than 40 per cent of their population, while we are still at around 20 per cent."

Let's start with apples-to-apples at age 12+
• UK 59%, Alberta 23.6%

alberta.ca/stats/covid-19…
And then do 3rd doses as % of whole population.
• Alberta (from table) = 20.1%
• UK (calculated) = 50.5%

Much more than 40%.

2.5x higher 3rd dose coverage in UK than Alberta.

[33,927,775 3rd doses ÷ 67,081,000 population]

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
So despite UK having 2.5x more 3rd Doses than Alberta:
• cases took off ~ 9 Dec
• hospital admissions took off ~ 18 Dec
• 7-day avg then = 989.6 admissions/day
• most recent day = 1915 admissions

ie. Hospital admissions doubled 10 days after cases.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/health…
Shall we have a look at Denmark now?

1st / 2nd / 3rd Dose as % of population:
• Alberta: 79.1 / 72.8 / 20.1
• Denmark: 81.9 / 77.9 / 47

Like UK, Denmark also has ~2.5x the 3rd doses as Alberta. (2.35x to be precise).

sst.dk/en/english/cor…
Denmark provides an official table, not fancy graphs, but you can see interesting things from it:
• Cases have doubled in the last week
• Reinfections have more than doubled

So much for immunity from prior infection.

Reinfections growing faster than cases. 🤔
For hospitalization, a reliable data aggregator.
• number of people in hospital has gone up 6x in 3 months
• here's their late Dec jump in hospitalization, just as the number of patients were starting to fall from Delta (spoiler alert)

ourworldindata.org/grapher/curren…
Aw heck, let's compare Canada, UK and Denmark:
• While Canada seems to have fewer cases
• We also have very low testing
• Canada's test positivity is nearly 18%, way above the others
• Alberta's test positivity = 30%

ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…
But our CMOH would tell us if Severe Outcomes like Hospital are following cases, riiight?
• the slow fall in hospital admissions from Delta has stopped
• since a low on 21 Dec at 3.4 admissions/day/million people, latest 28 Dec is 4.8
• highest in a month
• up 41% in a week.
What does all this remind me of?

Alberta's intentional launch of 4th Wave. Some common themes:
• cut public health measures & test/trace/isolate
• benchmark to the worst, not the best
• cherry-pick or misrepresent even their statistics
• cover up

Good night.

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More from @ZiadFazel

Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 16
If you come to Palomino early enough on a weekday, the soup of the day may still be available.

Having lunch here now at 1.30pm and first time for me, and it is heaven.

Clam chowder with a delicacy in the spices and herbs you wouldn’t expect from a “BBQ Joint”.

Thank you Chef. My photo of my clam chowder with unexpected cornbread loaf on the side.
My mistake. CORN chowder, not clam chowder as I said above.

First bite blew me away, so I tweeted right away. They have a similar classic base, IIRC.

I can’t eat pork, so I got it without bacon garnish (therefore also vegetarian).

For those who do 🐖, party on people. My photo of chalkboard sidewalk sign.
For “main course” you need video, not photo.

This is Elote Taco Salad, with the smoked turkey I added, to the music of Talking Heads “Burning Down the House” which Palomino provides with your meal.

After the soup, at least half of this will go home for dinner/midnight snack.
My screenshot of “Greens” section of menu.
Read 5 tweets
Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 7
I was going to tweet about my early dinner tonight at Palomino (cliché food pics) but just got hit with wall of SWEET sound when I went downstairs to use the washroom, and opened the steel door to basement concert hall.

WOW.

This is "Olde Ghosts" warming up - in this program. My photo with permission of Olde Ghosts 4-piece band warming up (I'd say they're already on fire) as I went to basement washroom at Palomino (shared with underground concert hall).
In the program they are listed as "Old Ghost" which may just be a miscommunication between Palomino mgmt and Band mgmt. Still gets the message across.
I am a nerdy 58-yr-old engineer who surprises people with 2 unexpected traits: a love for good metal, and endless jokes.

On the latter, I am like Leslie Nielsen who could easily get even people braced for his hidden fart accordion to crack up. But I'm not using one....yet.👺
With metal, I was raised with Indian music my parents played, like the Pakeezah soundtrack, until the cassette literally broke.

This is one of the songs from that movie. It builds until Meena Kumari (Indian's Marilyn) dances with those 2 😍 backups.

Read 9 tweets
Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 30
Kinda proud of myself. Also.. life is hilarious.

I’ve been eating a lot of rich, flavourful food recently, and I went from a salmon/capers omelet at OEB to the passcode protected washroom in food court at Fifth Avenue Place. Took a massive, relaxed dump.

Laughing as I type.
So I’m washing my hands - even had the foresight to take a restaurant napkin to dry my hands and use on the door lever to exit (trust me on this) and a distinguished gentlemen t about 60 walks in.

And visibly buckles, and groans.

I’m trying not to laugh out loud.
I step out of washroom and all of this is hitting me as I walk slowly to exit escalator, down to a bench on 5 Ave, where I am typing this now.

I’m almost crying not to burst out laughing.

And the Punjabi woman security guard sweetly asks me “Are you OK?”

No, Bhenji. I’m not.
Read 4 tweets
Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 25
This @NewsHour story too new to have transcript as well as published video interview with Dr @jasonmnagata but here's his website for his research:

ucsfbenioffchildrens.org/providers/dr-j…

@tylerblack32 @TheBreakdownAB @KmarkovCTV @picardonhealth @JenLeeCBC @MurrayManera @JSJamato @gabefabreau x.com/NewsHour/statu…
Didn't have room for @TehseenLadha @orlaghokelly @John1MD @dupuisj @vettergreenart
@TehseenLadha @orlaghokelly @John1MD @dupuisj @vettergreenart @threadreaderapp unroll please

The transcript is up now at:



@tylerblack32 @TheBreakdownAB @KmarkovCTV @picardonhealth @JenLeeCBC @MurrayManera @JSJamato @gabefabreau @drDavidKeegan @amandalhu @CalgarysChild @MarciaOnTheGo pbs.org/newshour/show/…Ali Rogin: Dr. Nagata, thank you so much for joining us. Social media children, lots of questions, few answers. What did your study find? Jason Nagata: We followed 12,000 preteens over three years and we actually found big rises in social media use. So during that period, social media on average increased from seven minutes a day to over 70 minutes a day. So a tenfold increase. And in our analysis, we actually found that rises in social media from year to year among these 9 then 10 then 11-year olds were actually associated with future depressive symptoms in the following year. So I thin...
Ali Rogin: So what you're saying is that you found the correlation here to be with social media use leading to more depressive symptoms, not the other way around. You're saying that depression doesn't necessarily indicate use of social media? Jason Nagata: Yes. In our study, were able to follow these same 12,000 kids year to year. So were able to look at both their depression and their social media use every single year. And so we could look at patterns in their use. And we found that those kids who had big spikes in their social media use from year to year then subsequently had bigger sp...
Ali Rogin: And talk to us about the size and the scope of this study. This sounds massive. How did you track this many children and has that been done before? Jason Nagata: So, yeah, the data comes from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study. It is a national study that follows these 12,000 kids from over 21 different states, study sites across the U.S. and it's funded by the National Institutes of Health and is I think one of the largest studies on child development and social media and brain health ever.
Ali Rogin: That's such a fascinating ancillary piece of information that you found in looking at this data. I do want to ask though, what is your advice for parents with the understanding that this data brings us to. Jason Nagata: Yeah, we actually looked at parent actions for rules and monitoring in the study and we actually found that the biggest predictors of kids screen use was actually their parents screen use. And as a new parent I think it's really important to practice what you preach. So if you're going to tell your kids to put down their phones to important that you role model g...
Read 4 tweets
Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 8
🧵 Alberta's Reigning Queen of deceptive cherry-picked public health stats, Health Min LaGrange, was back at it Monday, this time over measles immunization.

Bonus Topic: Where is the source for the widespread claim that airborne measles is only infectious up to two (2) hours? Screenshot from Goa 5 May 2025 press release, where Health Min LaGrange made the same claim in the YouTube press conference: [below is the quote verbatim, but I would put sarcastic quotes around "facts"] "Quick facts • Currently, appointments in the central zone are available within one day, while in the south zone appointments are available usually within one to two days. • Following increased efforts to educate Albertans on measles and the importance of immunization, there has been a significant rise in immunizations across the province. Since March 16, there has been a 67...
Excerpt from GoA lengthy web page on measles "How measles spreads Measles is an extremely contagious disease, spread easily through the air. You do not need to be in direct contact with someone who is infected. You can get measles just by passing through a room or location where a person who is infected was up to 2 hours before. The person who is infected does not still need to be there to put you at risk of disease. Measles can also be spread through coughing, sneezing, yelling, singing and breathing."
@TheBreakdownAB @JMeddings @PfParks @LukaszukAB @JenLeeCBC @GosiaGasperoPhD @Mark_Ungrin @dupuisj @DrFiliatrault @TimmCTV Let me provide the links for the above two graphics:

• cherry-picked measles immunization stats

alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…

• purported 2-hour limit on infectious airborne measles

alberta.ca/measles
@TheBreakdownAB @JMeddings @PfParks @LukaszukAB @JenLeeCBC @GosiaGasperoPhD @Mark_Ungrin @dupuisj @DrFiliatrault @TimmCTV On the deceptive, cherry-picked measles immunization stats, LaGrange said "Since March 16, there has been a 67% increase in comparison to last year."

Let's look at actual graphs & data tables.

alberta.ca/measles#jumpli… "Figure 2a. Measles containing immunization doses administered by week and geography, 2023-2025 for Alberta" showing the 2025 line does not cross over 2023 and 2024 lines until 16 March 2025. Prior to that, 2025 was well below both 2024 and 2023.
Closeup of graph, showing the yellow 2025 line does not cross over black 2023 and red 2024 lines until 16 March 2025. Prior to that, 2025 was well below both 2024 and 2023.
Closeup of graph, highlighting the yellow 2025 line to show better that it does not cross over black 2023 and red 2024 lines until 16 March 2025. Prior to that, 2025 was well below both 2024 and 2023.
Data table for GoA's graph, showing the actual numbers of measles immunization shots per week in those 3 years.
Read 42 tweets
Ziad 😷 Fazel 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 24
I was just treated TERRIBLY by @HyattCalgary. Manager just denied me service in restaurant for some vague reasons behind:

“None of the staff are comfortable with you and want to serve you.”

Huh? You just lost polite, loyal 20% tip customer. Maybe my friends too.

See you never.
The VP who oversees the restaurant was not on, but I left my business card.

My @Hyatt loyalty card, which shows zero as it has not updated for my purchases since February, when my car died, and I found walking there convenient. High prices, but matching food & service (!) Image
@Hyatt Now, I don’t care about my points, as I will never visit @HyattCalgary again, for any reason.

I won’t spend much time with the VP if he or she calls me. This is their problem to solve, not mine. I’ll get nothing from it either way - I’m gone.
Read 4 tweets

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